NSSF weighs in on ammo shortage

[Papa Foxtrot]

FAST FACTS . . . (http://nssf.org/media/FactSheets/Ammunition.cfm)


ANSWERS TO AMMUNITION AVAILABILITY QUESTIONS

NSSF has received numerous calls regarding shortages of ammunition. Many of these callers have expressed concern that the supply of ammunition is not able to keep up with the current demand.

In order to provide the best information possible on the issue of ammunition availability, NSSF interviewed ammunition manufacturers across the United States. Here's what we have learned:

Is there truly a shortage of ammunition?

The shortage of ammunition is real and is caused by several factors including:



A significant spike in consumer demand

Law Enforcement demand for training and readiness

Department of Defense demand for training and readiness

Higher prices from commodities
What calibers are in the highest demand?

The high demand for ammunition extends across caliber lines. The increase can be seen in most handgun, rifle and rimfire ammunition and on certain shot shell products such as buckshot.

What are manufacturers doing to keep up with demand?

In order to help keep up with demand for ammunition, manufacturers are working at full capacity (24/7). It is believed that any ammunition shortage is likely a temporary issue; however, it will take time for supply to catch up with demand.

How long will it take for supply to catch up with demand?

While it is believed that supply will be increasing, the great unknown is what demand will be later in the year. Since there is no way for manufacturers to predict how long consumer demand will be sustained at its current, unprecedented level, it is impossible for manufacturers to forecast the timeline for when the current backlog will begin to improve.

[Rocky Raab]

Short answer: as long as people keep buying ammo and components faster than they can make them, there will be a shortage.

[beanflip]

:Fire: Good answer Rocky

[Lloyd Smale]

I still have to call BS on this. The military and police sure arent buying out .22 and my dealer called his distributor and his distributor is one of the biggest in the country and he doesnt have one single box of 22 ammo. Where is it. Its obviously not getting bought up if the distributors dont have it to sell. Same answer from him about primers. NONE to be had. You can blame the comoditys either as metal prices since this shortage have been down not up like they were a year ago. In my opion theres an obvious answer. the manufactures are intentionaly slowing production to drive up the demand and the price. Why is it too that theres a shortage of foreign ammo like wolf. Our military and police arent buying that up and you cant blame a war. There has been wars for 30 years staight that have had mass volumes of 7.62x39 ammo used and its never been scarce before. The manufactures are sitting back wathching us idiots paying big money for the few things we can find and you can bet your ass that theyd rather put out one box of primers for 50 bucks then put out two for 25. Mark my words you will never see prices like they were before or even availabilty like we all took for granted in the past. The have us by the gonads guys. We need there product. Who do we complain to? Handloaders and shooters are about as popular right now as a cigerette smoker in a resteraunt.
We dont even get sympathy from most of the hunters in the country. They dont care if LLoyd cant buy a case of 5000 primers. Most of them buy a box of ammo and it last them 2 years and even if they did want to spend a hundred bucks on primers there wifes wouldnt let them have the money and bottom line in this country right now there be more crap stirred if you banned golf balls!!





FAST FACTS . . . (http://nssf.org/media/FactSheets/Ammunition.cfm)

[Ole]

I took off work early today and went to the range this afternoon. There were a ton of folks there for a Wednesday afternoon.

So someone must still be getting ammo. :mrgreen:

Heck there was a guy there shooting 3 different full autos.

[HandgunHTR]

Here is a common sense blog entry about it:

Some More Ruminations
on the Ammo Shortage...
by Tamara K.
of booksbikesboomsticks.blogspot.com


Die Time: In comments yesterday, Ed Foster mentioned "die time". This is exactly why you can't get, for example, .380 right now. At most manufacturers, the machinery they use to load .380 (which uses different "dies" to load different calibers) is only used for that purpose for a small portion of the year; the rest of the time it's used to load more high volume stuff, like 9mm. They churn out .380 for a couple of months, say, at the end of the year, and it's enough to hold the market over 'til the next winter.

Rumor has it that this past year's demand for 9mm FMJ was so great that Winchester didn't bother tooling up for .380 and kept the presses pumping out 9x19 ball. Even if the other two companies didn't do likewise, what percentage of the .380 market do you think that Winchester represents? Federal and Remington certainly don't load enough to take up the slack, and that causes the supply to crash to nothing.

Case Lots: Believe it or not, the kind of people that read gun blogs, post on internet gun forums, go to the range every weekend, and name their gun "Vera", are a small minority of gun owners. For fifteen years I tried to convince Joe and Jane Public to buy ammo by the case. I failed miserably. No matter how much you explain the price savings when buying a thousand rounds at a lick, or the fact that ammo doesn't go bad, most people would look at you and say "I don't know, $100 seems like a lot of money, and what am I going to do with a thousand rounds of 9mm?"

The ammunition manufacturing and supply pipeline is simply not set up for the average consumer to walk into Wal-Mart and buy two cases of ammunition. If your average shooter normally bought 100rds/month to take to the range and decided to buy two cases instead, "just in case", he has just bought more ammunition at one lick than he would normally buy in two years. Think about that for a second, and then multiply it out over several million shooters suddenly buying way outside their normal pattern.

Production Capacity: The manufacturers are running full tilt. The only way they could make more ammunition is to build more plant, and they are not going to do that for several reasons. The first is that this bubble will contract sooner or later. Joe and Jane Sofaspud are going to realize that they really don't need 10,000 rounds of Winchester .45 in the basement, and that minivan payment isn't getting any smaller. They'll sell it to Annie Appleseed and Ivan Ipsc and demand will cool down.

The second reason they won't build more plant is financial. Remember that economy thing? Yeah, well it's still bad. Business loans aren't really easy to get right now, especially for businesses that are square in the middle of the Media-Congressional Complex's crosshairs. When the stroke of a pen could cut your sales by 50%, you are not what lenders call a "good risk".

Supply & Demand: Right now prices are high not because of transport costs or raw materials costs, which drove the price spike of '05(really an honest adjustment, as ammo prices had stayed almost artificially flat for the better part of a decade,) but because of simple supply and demand. If I put my widgets out for $1, and the first guy that walks in the store buys them all, I'm obviously not charging enough for my widgets.

As demand stays high and supply stays small, prices keep going up. They will go up until they become high enough to cool demand. As demand cools, supply will build back up. In order to move the new supply, prices will come back down somewhat until they reignite demand. This is Econ 101, folks, and it's as predictable as 32 ft/sec² or π*r².

[mike in co]

I still have to call BS on this. The military and police sure arent buying out .22 and my dealer called his distributor and his distributor is one of the biggest in the country and he doesnt have one single box of 22 ammo. Where is it. Its obviously not getting bought up if the distributors dont have it to sell. Same answer from him about primers. NONE to be had. You can blame the comoditys either as metal prices since this shortage have been down not up like they were a year ago. In my opion theres an obvious answer. the manufactures are intentionaly slowing production to drive up the demand and the price. Why is it too that theres a shortage of foreign ammo like wolf. Our military and police arent buying that up and you cant blame a war. There has been wars for 30 years staight that have had mass volumes of 7.62x39 ammo used and its never been scarce before. The manufactures are sitting back wathching us idiots paying big money for the few things we can find and you can bet your ass that theyd rather put out one box of primers for 50 bucks then put out two for 25. Mark my words you will never see prices like they were before or even availabilty like we all took for granted in the past. The have us by the gonads guys. We need there product. Who do we complain to? Handloaders and shooters are about as popular right now as a cigerette smoker in a resteraunt.
We dont even get sympathy from most of the hunters in the country. They dont care if LLoyd cant buy a case of 5000 primers. Most of them buy a box of ammo and it last them 2 years and even if they did want to spend a hundred bucks on primers there wifes wouldnt let them have the money and bottom line in this country right now there be more crap stirred if you banned golf balls!!


i really do not understand you.
rp says they are running full, added back laid off employees. 5/6 day weeks(back to back) 10-12hr days.
stuff is getting out....but it is beinfg bought off the delivery docks in some cases. most time never makes it to the shelf .
wolf was not prepeared for the onslaught, by supplier had 2 million 223/sr primers the end of nov. by the end of dec......no 223/sr primers. the distribution starts shipping and runs out. the import company in georgia orders more...was suppose to be here 2weeks ago...but now they say more like may/june.
ther eis no consiracy.
no one is filling a warehouse..............
read my lips.......the public is buying...guns/ammo/components.reloading equiptment at a rate that has never been seen. i know an ar upper/lower component manufacturer that has been working 7/24 for aprox 17 months now...and no end in sight.


the only consipracy was the election.......

mike in co

[Recluse]

read my lips.......the public is buying...guns/ammo/components.reloading equiptment at a rate that has never been seen. i know an ar upper/lower component manufacturer that has been working 7/24 for aprox 17 months now...and no end in sight.


the only consipracy was the election.......

mike in co

Mike, once again I agree with you. (Sidenote: Some of you folks oughta be buying lottery tickets with me and Mike agreeing this much lately. . . :))

In the late 1990's, Remington was a client of ours. I've seen their manufacturing setup and I've seen how they build rifles, shotguns and ammunition.

I'll guarantee you that Remington is not holding back and "slowing" down production--and for sure not to drive up prices.

Gasoline refiners? Absolutely. . . can and will absolutely buy that argument. Gasoline is a necessity. Multiple firearms and thousands upon thousands of spare primers laying around is NOT a necessity.

Again, as I explained several weeks ago, the firearms/ammunition manufacturering and distribution system is simply not set up for what we're seeing and experiencing today.

The system was set up, tooled and adjusted to serve the typical individual who may buy one or two long guns a year--or less. Likewise, the system was set up for the shooter who may shoot one or two boxes of 9mm or 45ACP ammo every month or two. And likewise, the system was set up for reloaders who buy a thousand or so primers every six months.

But now, with the annointment of Hussein Obama to the Presidency, average individuals are buying more guns and in shorter intervals than they ever had. They are not only shooting one or two boxes of ammo every month or two, they are buying four/five/ten times that much and stockpiling it. And reloaders? We're all loaders here. We KNOW firsthand what's happening--people buying 5K/10K/20K of ANY type or brand of primers the instant they can find them.

Bottom line? There are a lot of scared citizens out there. And they're buying up everything they can. Try finding MREs and deydrators and water filters, etc. That's another area where supply is struggling to meet demand.

:coffee:

[runfiverun]

tried to get a mold lately? a good one anyways.
gas checks?
i do think something is going on though this happened in the clinton era too. but there are 2 more manufacturers now.
also all that ammo from schina, czecchoslav has been banned. but still with more avenues for ammo/ components now you would think it/some would still be available.

[Slow Elk 45/70]

Well folks,
I sure don't know where it is all going, but it is not on the shelves in stores in AK. That much I know, and I agree that lots of people are scared silly about what is going on since the new administrations take over, all those hunters that used to buy 20 Rds for 2 years, have gone out and bought all they could find. And it may be that they will need it.:Fire:

These people have legislature in the mill that will stop ammo sales by June 30th this year, in 18 states...if it passes....be aware, be vary aware.:???:

It is any one's guess as to where this is going, but the ammo & reloading components are going somewhere...I know people that have been buying since early last year, there is no such thing as to much.[smilie=1:

[Lloyd Smale]

Mike id agree with you totaly if it wasnt for this fact. Why arent the primers making it to the distributors. CCI and Remington dont sell to you and me at the loading dock they sell to distributors. Jerrys guns is one of the biggest distributors in the US and i personaly talked to him and he said his shelves are bare and he doesnt expect anything in the near future. Those were his words. Gander mountian is the only large sorce of powder and primers here. I live in a real rual area and there arent that many handloaders. Gander mountians shelves have been bare for over a month and i know the kid working there and he is calling me the minute they get primers. Now Gander mountain is another large buyer of reloading supplys. Now if these manufactures are cranking them out 7 days a week where the hell are they going. Id think Jerrys and Gander mountain would be in line for at least a case or two!!! these companys have commitments to these large retailers and certainly are going to make sure they get some before some yeyhoo on the loading dock.

[C A Plater]

I think much of the primer supply is being used for factory loaded ammunition. CCI does not make much of their own but a lot of the commercial re-manufactured certainly does. These outfits would dwarf the demand of the Gander Mountain chain and are most likely first in line when shipping product. The Huntsville, AL Gander is out of primers too but does have powders. At $200+ for 8 pound kegs the demand is not that high for them. The had some .22 too but it was all $4 a box of 50 or more. Did find Federal Champion .22 down the road for $1.69/50 at Larry's so there is some getting out to retail. At some point demand will fall unless the geniuses in DC make some more brilliant plans and availability will return. I just wish I had a crystal ball that would let me in on when that was.

[dakotashooter2]

The shortage of ammunition is real and is caused by several factors including:

A significant spike in consumer demand

Law Enforcement demand for training and readiness

Department of Defense demand for training and readiness

Higher prices from commodities

Most of this is bull. You're telling me that Law enforcement which purchases a small percentage of the ammo produced and of which many have REDUCED range time due to ammo costs are eating up a significant amount of the production? I question that the military is using that much more than they have the last 8-10 years. I could see commodity availability affecting supply but not commodity priceing. That leaves consumer demand, which I believe and "other".


How can a business claiming to produce billions of primers not have those show up on the market of only millions of shooters?

Are not many of our powders imported? While demand may have increased at the retail level I don't see our domestic issues and the list above affectingthe production of imported supplies.

Keep in mind that as far as ammo production is concerned the most popular highest volume calibers are gonna be first on the production line. The oddball stuff is gonna be the last stuff left on the shelf and the last to be replentished.

[6.5 mike]

Its not just the common stuff. Try to find any of the seasonal calibers Ive bee looking for 30-40 krag for 6 mo. with no luck. I dont see any of this getting any better any tine soon. Seems like once obamba took office everything went to hell in a hand basket. Makes me wonder why i spent 20 years in the navy, 2 wars ,and all the rest of the headaches.

[Recluse]

You're telling me that Law enforcement which purchases a small percentage of the ammo produced and of which many have REDUCED range time due to ammo costs are eating up a significant amount of the production? I question that the military is using that much more than they have the last 8-10 years. I could see commodity availability affecting supply but not commodity priceing. That leaves consumer demand, which I believe and "other".

Bear in mind that Hussein Obama is about as popular with law enforcement and the military as gonorrhea. They're scared, too, and they're stocking up. Not because they worry they can't get it (although distinct possibility) but because they know due to the Muslim Messiah's socialist tax schemes, the cost on ammunition is going to freaking skyrocket.

But, in the case of the military, their budgets are being CUT. A military cannot fight a war, let alone win it, without ammunition.

I was serving during the Carter fiasco and distinctly remember NOT having ammunition to train and practice with. Lot of running around yelling "bang, you're dead" kind of crap. Likewise, in law enforcement I remember in 1989 the U.S. Border Patrol running out of money. They could not patrol in our region because they had no money for gas. Couldn't qualify with their weapons because they had no money for ammunition. I gave the local USBP RAC my gov't gas card and told him to fill up his cars. Opened up our huge walk-in safe and gave him cases and cases of 9mm and .223 ammo so they could at least qualify (required every six months).

This was during one of the infamous governemnt "shut-downs" when D v R couldn't agree on a budget and would just shut the gov't down.

I think there are still a lot of folks who remember firsthand those bad days. If I were a LE chief, I'd be buying every round of ammo I could get my hands on. Same goes for military.


How can a business claiming to produce billions of primers not have those show up on the market of only millions of shooters?

Are not many of our powders imported? While demand may have increased at the retail level I don't see our domestic issues and the list above affectingthe production of imported supplies.

If you call up Federal or Winchester, they'll politely--but firmly--remind you that they are in the business of producing ammunition first, components second, and that they never get that order mixed up.

Us reloaders are barely a blip on their sales forecast screen.


Keep in mind that as far as ammo production is concerned the most popular highest volume calibers are gonna be first on the production line. The oddball stuff is gonna be the last stuff left on the shelf and the last to be replentished.

Agreed. But I'm even seeing the exotic and odd stuff getting bought up; obsensibly for people to barter and trade, I suppose.

What it all says is that a huge segement of our nation not only doesn't trust the present gov't and White House squatter, but that they are scared.

NOT a good combination.

:coffee:

[Rocky Raab]

It is NOT bull.

Military. During the Clinton years, the military budget was cut and little or no ammo was stockpiled. Clinton closed all but ONE of the government ammo plants. Then the war peaked and the military drew on existing stockpiles until they had none left. None. Soldiers in Iraq were being issued ammo by COUNT at times. Finally, the military got the point across and absolutely huge orders for ammo went out. Almost two whole years of 100% production went into it. That is largely past now, but they are still ordering normal (for them) amounts. In the meantime ...

Police. Unable to get ammo supplies because of the huge military contracts, the police (which had never bought in huge numbers before due to stingy budgets) suddenly had to fill THEIR stockpiles. They did so, and learned from the past. They are now buying ammo in much greater amounts than before, and their priority is right behind the military. While they are doing that ...

Ammunition. Factories devote their output to loaded ammunition before reloading components. While they were maxxed out for years to supply the military, and now both military AND police, they were unable to make much for themselves/consumers. They still can't, for the most part. So they prioritize. The chamberings that demand the highest output are handgun and shotgun. Of those, 9mm Luger, 45 ACP and 12-gauge top the lists. They can't keep THAT demand satisfied, so how can they stop production of those to crank out some 45 Colt or 44 Magnum or 380? So those and almost all rifle rounds get short shrift. And so ...

Reloading. Unable to get factory ammo, thousands of people have suddenly decided to take up reloading, as the number of "newbie" questions on any shooting forum attest. Those who already reload aren't taking a breather, either. Many are "stockpiling" for themselves - some call it hoarding - or are actually scalping components for obscene profits. Not all, but it is happening.

Add all that up, then toss in political panic and you wind up with a clear picture of why there is no ammunition and no components. AND THE MORE WE SCREAM ABOUT IT, THE WORSE IT WILL GET.

There are always those for whom the first explanation for everything is some vast conspiracy. But for this, the simple laws of supply and demand are all the explanation needed.

[AZ-Stew]

How can a business claiming to produce billions of primers not have those show up on the market of only millions of shooters?

Simple math. 1,000 primers times 1 million shooters equals 1 billion primers. And some folks are hoarding how many? Game over. Production capacity is easily exceeded by demand.

Regards,

Stew

[mike in co]

Mike id agree with you totaly if it wasnt for this fact. Why arent the primers making it to the distributors. CCI and Remington dont sell to you and me at the loading dock they sell to distributors. Jerrys guns is one of the biggest distributors in the US and i personaly talked to him and he said his shelves are bare and he doesnt expect anything in the near future. Those were his words. Gander mountian is the only large sorce of powder and primers here. I live in a real rual area and there arent that many handloaders. Gander mountians shelves have been bare for over a month and i know the kid working there and he is calling me the minute they get primers. Now Gander mountain is another large buyer of reloading supplys. Now if these manufactures are cranking them out 7 days a week where the hell are they going. Id think Jerrys and Gander mountain would be in line for at least a case or two!!! these companys have commitments to these large retailers and certainly are going to make sure they get some before some yeyhoo on the loading dock.

they do sell to me...thru distributors..i buy wholesale.
go read what i posted.
sales are higher than EVER PERIOD.
primers are going to inhouse ammo production lines. they go to independent ammo plants second, public/distributors last. read what i said about wolf primers...this is an indication of just how big the buying spree is. police and various agencies are still just normal or less as thier money buys less at this point. the military is a major issue. two active battles fronts, and no inventory. they have a 25% increase in small arms ammo this year alone. the public buying is/was massive and at the worst possible time of the year.

jerry's is more consumer product...not that big in wholesale reloading components. several distributors are much bigger in this field...and guess what they are selling allocation only no full orders.....so yes they are getting some...but parcialling it out.

[mold maker]

Local Law Enforcement is having the same problem finding ammo as you and me. I scrounge brass locally and you'd be surprised at the head stamps showing up now.
Local training officer says he had to delay qualifying, and not issue practice ammo this year for over three months. There was just no ammo available, and what was in the vault was kept for line officer use.
How many of you know of folks that always bought their ammo at the range a box at a time? How many of those same folks suddenly found the need to put a case or five or six in the closet just in case??
How many folks suddenly decided to buy a "black" rifle and a case or two of 223 just because they mignt not be available next year??
How many NEW gun owners now have several as investments??
When ammo prices started to increase, how many old reloaders dusted off their old equipment and started hunting components?? How many NEW reloaders bought equipment and started to lay in a supply of components??
Think about it, several years ago only the devout shooters bought any quanity of ammo or components. Several popular suppliers stopped or cut the amount of shelf space for this stuff. We were a dieing breed. We were politically incorrect and shuned. Manufactories were cutting production in favor of more profitable products.
With the advent of the last 2 elections (06 & 08) there is a fear that the end is near or already here. If you add up all the HOW MANY's above you can easily see where it all went. The factories are not able to get any stock into the bottomless pit of a pipe line that is needed before it can show up at WalMart or your fav gun store. Primers, powder, brass and bullets go first to ammo where the profit is the greatest. Only after that demand is met will there be any components left for sale to us.
We, the shooting public have created our own shortage.
Does anybody remember when Johnny Carson remarked, in jest, about the toilet paper shortage. It was purely a figment of his imagionation, but sure enough in less than a week we were scrounging for the second and third case,"Just in Case", and the stores couldn't find any more to buy. The steady supply line was drained and it took months to level out. All the while folks that paniced couldn't shut the pantry door because of the excess they had purchased.

[lathesmith]

I keep hearing and reading over and over how this ammo shortage is caused by soley by politics, and then the usual venom and bile is spewed about the subject. Yes, I'll agree, politics is a factor, but in my opinion it is only ONE factor. The overall picture is much bigger than this, and make no mistake, a far-fatched conspiracy theory just don't cut it as an explanation this time around. We have an unfortunate collision of wars, politics, economics, panic, greed, and probably a few other factors that I have overlooked that are coming together here at virtually the same time and contributing to the problem. Just remedying one or two of these factors isn't enough to get things back to normal; it's going to take the reduction of at least three or four of these factors over a period of time before a semblence of normalcy can return. This makes me think that high prices and relative scarcity are going to be with us for...well, a lot longer than most of us would like. Consider, the economy isn't likely to see a major upswing for at least a year, our two wars aren't going away for at least a few years, and politically, well...this is a subject I really don't like wading into, but the next Congressional elections aren't for another 18 months yet, so let's just say that this aspect is going to be with us for at least that long, and maybe a lot longer.
Until these factors begin to reverse themselves, I really don't see any relief on the panic and scalping front.
So, my advice is to hunker down, take a deep breath...and be prepared to wait awhile. It could be that this thing unwinds as fast as it wound up, but that would be a best-case scenario, and I certainly am not betting on nor expecting it.
lathesmith

[gray wolf]

Mark my words---

After it is all said and done we will find out that this has been a nefarious
move on the part of our beloved (not ) government., and all this here say and calling people up is just bull pie's. I truly believe we are being told lies, Why? because after digesting all that I have heard And all that I see , it just don't make sense --it just add up.
Play it out and it don't roll out right. Go on and make all the calls and talk to all the people you want. You ain't getting the straight story.
Like it's been said if all the company's are so hell bent making this stuff then ware the hell is it.

GW.

[Rocky Raab]

If it's all that mysterious and nefarious, what makes you think you'll find it all out?

Tiny conspiracies are extremely difficult to keep secret; huge ones are impossible.

[MT Gianni]

It is getting to the stores. Wal-mart used to get a pallet of 22 shells and have it last 6-10 weeks. Now that same pallet arrives every 8 weeks or so and it is gone in 12 hours or less. I can't believe any conspiracy theory other than perhaps DOJ or another agency contracting to buy 75% of all production to cut back on supplies to shooters. If you were manager/owner of a componet company would you cut back because a newly elected President suggested it might be a good thing? I can't believe that happening especially in a world production era. Gianni

[gray wolf]

other than perhaps DOJ or another agency contracting to buy 75% of all production to cut back on supplies to shooters.

I don't care about finding out why, what good would it do? Also I don't go off on crazy theory's.
My biggest suspect is what was said above in bold letters.
I recall back a couple of months ago reading that the HLS Dept. had bought a crazy large amount of ammo from suppliers--I thought at the time Wow that order would take forever to fill. Well now it makes sense--perhaps they don't care how long it takes--- perhaps what they have done is to tie up the supply chain. Yes we will see a trickle down amount of supply's come through---and yes the hording has taken it's toll.

GW.

[Leadforbrains]

Whats happenning now aint to much different than the primer shortage caused by the rumor that the gooberment was going to make the component manufacturers make primers with a decreased shelf life. The Y2k scare was another one.
The feeling that Obama is going to legislate us out of our hobby is driving this one. This coupled with more people reloading than ever due to the shortage of available ammo is really making things a little tough. The situation is not being helped by the fact that there is a war going on on two fronts and the demand for ammunition by the military and law enforcement is running the ammo industry ragged trying to keep up with the demand.
I believe this will pass and we will be back to normal.

[Slow Elk 45/70]

Depends on if you think Socialism is Normal, this is the change you were promised. They don't have to take the guns, they will price ammo and components right out of reach for most of us with taxes, to pay for their "Spreading of the Wealth". IMHO

[Rocky Raab]

Just to be clear, I have NO doubt that the Socialibs would take away our guns and ammo any way they could - and are trying to.

At the same time, they aren't making a really determined effort - yet.

The combination of huge military and police buys, the number of people buying guns and ammo just in case, and the hordes of new reloaders in it for the same reason can account for what is seen as a shortage. In fact, there is no shortage of supply, but a gross overage of demand from all directions.

Pogo was right all along: we have met the enemy and he is us.

[Leadforbrains]

Just to be clear, I have NO doubt that the Socialibs would take away our guns and ammo any way they could - and are trying to.

At the same time, they aren't making a really determined effort - yet.

The combination of huge military and police buys, the number of people buying guns and ammo just in case, and the hordes of new reloaders in it for the same reason can account for what is seen as a shortage. In fact, there is no shortage of supply, but a gross overage of demand from all directions.

Pogo was right all along: we have met the enemy and he is us.

I agree one hundred percent. Things have been running a little tight for the last couple of years. All this panic buying because of the fear of what this new administration full of Dimocraps will do has made it worse. I saw the crunch was coming and prepared accordingly.

No socialist conspiracy........ not yet anyways.

[Geraldo]

Posted by lathesmith:


We have an unfortunate collision of wars, politics, economics, panic, greed, and probably a few other factors that I have overlooked that are coming together here at virtually the same time and contributing to the problem.

Posted by AZ-Stew:


Simple math. 1,000 primers times 1 million shooters equals 1 billion primers. And some folks are hoarding how many? Game over. Production capacity is easily exceeded by demand.


Both of these statements are correct. If you do the math as AZ says, you understand that primers run out pretty quickly.

As for oddball ammo, shooters that use it have bought all there is, end of story. The way production works I wouldn't be surprised if companies only run lots of nearly obsolete cartridges every couple of years as the demand is low.

Either experienced reloaders or newbies/wannabes are buying reloading tools in record number, as seen in the lack of presses and spare parts.

Finally, a friend of mine is being deployed to A-stan. A few years ago he couldn't qualify all his troops as there wasn't enough ammo, but there was no shortage at all in the train up time prior to deployment.

As lathesmith says, it's not all one thing, but a perfect storm that exceeds the ability of manufacturers to keep up, let alone get ahead. If (fill in the blank) could make more (pick one: guns, ammo, primers, presses) they would.

[BD]

You guys that believe in some vast goobermint conspiracy theory have a lot more confidence in our public servants than I do. From what I've seen dealing with those bozos over the years, as a group, they're too darn stupid to pull something like this off.
BD

[Ricochet]

Never ascribe to malevolence that which can be explained by incompetence.

[Leadforbrains]

you guys that believe in some vast goobermint conspiracy theory have a lot more confidence in our public servants than i do. From what i've seen dealing with those bozos over the years, as a group, they're too darn stupid to pull something like this off.
Bd


amen!!!!

[Leadforbrains]

Never ascribe to malevolence that which can be explained by incompetence.


AMEN again!

[Gray Fox]

It's not just us as individual shooters who have problems getting what we need. A neighbor is the chief of a local 25-man PD. He told me recently he's glad that he double ordered .40 S&W ammo last year because if he had waited he couldn't have gotten ammo for required certification firing this year.

[Papa Foxtrot]

Yep - my nieces husband handles ammo procurement for the local sherrif's dept. He's waiting for a large order of 5.56. He's got to take delivery by 7/1 to get it on this year's budget. Otherwise, he's looking at a bureaucratic nightmare...

[mike in co]

Mark my words---

After it is all said and done we will find out that this has been a nefarious
move on the part of our beloved (not ) government., and all this here say and calling people up is just bull pie's. I truly believe we are being told lies, Why? because after digesting all that I have heard And all that I see , it just don't make sense --it just add up.
Play it out and it don't roll out right. Go on and make all the calls and talk to all the people you want. You ain't getting the straight story.
Like it's been said if all the company's are so hell bent making this stuff then ware the hell is it.

GW.

duh another brain surgeon.

if you will not listen to fellow shooters who are on the inside of the shooting industry....you will not believe anyone...its called paranoid.....u r.

the facts haave been put in front of you many times...it does add up....you cannot do simple math.

you are entitled to your opinion..but not to my primers....

mike in co

[Leadforbrains]

No shortage on my front whatsoever!:drinks::Fire: