When the Primer Panic of 2009 ends, guess what?

[Recluse]

Several of us were chatting today after Easter dinner, and the discussion turned to all this mad panic buying and buying up all the reloading and casting stuff that ain't nailed down. Each of us has been patiently waiting for one of the online places to get something or the other in--besides primers--and we're all kind of aggravated at the panic buyers and "panic newbie reloaders."

But then one of my friends brought up an incredibly delicious thought:

When all returns to normal, he predicts, any idea how many newbie reloaders and newbie boolit casters are gonna absolutely HATE reloading and casting? And guess what happens THEN?

Lots and lots of barely used equipment of ALL makes going up for sale. Lot of these IDIOTS who bought 20, 30, 40, 50K primers along with their first ever reloading press are going to realize that there is no way they will ever load and shoot a tenth of that amount in five lifetimes.

Lots and lots of barely used equipment and components will be popping up in "Swapping and Selling" classifieds all over the country.

And so far as Supply & Demand, the shoe will be on the other foot.

Delicious thought, ain't it?

:coffee:

[GooseGestapo]

YEP !

Back in 2001, I bought 37,000 CCI small pistol, and 10,000 large pistol primers from a wholesale distributer that was getting out of the reloading componenet business. I bought them for the price he paid in the '90's primer scare...... about $7at thousand !!!!

I also bought out a "gunshops" stock in 1999 of about 15,000 small pistol primers (Federal, to feed my PPC revolvers) for about $5/thousand.

Happy days will return again, just not soon enough.

However, I do have a couple of years supply of small pistol and small rifle primers, and perhapa 5-6yrs of Large Rifle magnum........

(not a "hoarder", I just shoot that much !)

What is worrying me more is the long term availability of lead wheelweights.........

[Bret4207]

Just like after Y2K when there was a glut of "survivalist" gear on the market.

[bobk]

Yeah, but what I was really hoping for was a cheapy generator. Never ran across one, so I broke down and bought one. Had been promising myself one for 30 years.
Bob K

[dale2242]

This happened after the Gun Control Act of 1968. I bought a 50lb. keg of H4831 for $20. ----dale

[Dale53]

Well, what I hope is that most of the newbies STAY and continue to reload as they have started! The bright ones will realize that it IS a bit of work but look at how the "price per round" has gone down. Further, there is GREAT satisfaction in "rolling your own". THAT can only benefit the reloading and shooting industry and ultimately, ALL of us.

Here's hopin':drinks:

Dale53

[klcarroll]

Well, what I hope is that most of the newbies STAY and continue to reload as they have started! The bright ones will realize that it IS a bit of work but look at how the "price per round" has gone down. Further, there is GREAT satisfaction in "rolling your own". THAT can only benefit the reloading and shooting industry and ultimately, ALL of us.

Here's hopin':drinks:

Dale53


AMEN TO THAT!!! .......Anything that increases our numbers gives us more strength for future "trials"!

......And let's hope that they keep the sense of "Political Awareness" that originally lead them to rush out to buy enough stuff to cause the current shortage!!

Kent

[3rptr]

I read your post, thought about it...
I pretty much disagree with your whole post.
3rptr

[klcarroll]

I read your post, thought about it...
I pretty much disagree with your whole post.
3rptr


???????????????????


Kent

[exile]

In my opinion, this is not the 90's Clinton era, this is 2009, Obama and a Democratic congress. This is never going to get better. This is the end of the line for primers.

exile

[klcarroll]

In my opinion, this is not the 90's Clinton era, this is 2009, Obama and a Democratic congress. This is never going to get better. This is the end of the line for primers.

exile


So you believe that it's all over? ......That the "rank and file" in this country will just quietly "roll over" for whatever "Obama and the Good Time Boys" decree???

I think not! .......History demonstrates that we don't give up quite that easily!!


Kent

[scrapcan]

3rptr,

Tell us why you disagree. Tis not enough to just disagree with out qualification as to why.

[Sprue]

Several of us were chatting today after Easter dinner, and the discussion turned to all this mad panic buying and buying up all the reloading and casting stuff that ain't nailed down. Each of us has been patiently waiting for one of the online places to get something or the other in--besides primers--and we're all kind of aggravated at the panic buyers and "panic newbie reloaders."

But then one of my friends brought up an incredibly delicious thought:

When all returns to normal, he predicts, any idea how many newbie reloaders and newbie boolit casters are gonna absolutely HATE reloading and casting? And guess what happens THEN?

Lots and lots of barely used equipment of ALL makes going up for sale. Lot of these IDIOTS who bought 20, 30, 40, 50K primers along with their first ever reloading press are going to realize that there is no way they will ever load and shoot a tenth of that amount in five lifetimes.

Lots and lots of barely used equipment and components will be popping up in "Swapping and Selling" classifieds all over the country.

And so far as Supply & Demand, the shoe will be on the other foot.

Delicious thought, ain't it?

:coffee:

Same goes for those IDIOTS (your words) who didn't or don't plan ahead. A Delicious thought indeed....

[mike in co]

Same goes for those IDIOTS (your words) who didn't or don't plan ahead. A Delicious thought indeed....



you are soooooo badddddddddddd!

mike in co
THE COLORADO BRASS COMAPNY
and seller of market priced primers

[Recluse]

Same goes for those IDIOTS (your words) who didn't or don't plan ahead. A Delicious thought indeed....

Yep. [smilie=1:

They're the ones doing most of the crying right now. But the IDIOTS always do--no matter the scenario. That's why they're IDIOTS.

Some can be reformed, most cannot. Natural selection.

:coffee:

[Char-Gar]

I take sorta combination approach to this stuff.

1. By and by, the supply with catch up with the demand and primers will reappear on the market.

2. By and by, some of the panic hoards will trickle back into the market, but not a flood.

3. By and by, some of the panic newbies will stick with loading and some won't.

[azrednek]

Well, what I hope is that most of the newbies STAY and continue to reload as they have started! Dale53

I started reloading to save money and be able to shoot more. After getting started I discovered reloading to be another hobby in it's self. I imagine many of the newby shooters will discover reloading as I did and stay with it. Even when and if ammo supplies become abundant and cheap again. Many but not all will stick with it.

I quit reloading shotshells many years ago after doing the math. I enjoyed loading for shotguns but before I retired I had to budget my time. Kmart used to low ball shotshells every year right before Dove season opens here in Arizona. I'd buy up enough to last me the entire year. My savings in $$'s just wasn't worth the time. I would rather spend my spare time casting. Since the fat pig Michael Moore made such a big deal about Kmart having ammo sales. I blew the dust off of my old and reliable Pacific shotshell press and jumped back in. I sure wish I had never given up my 410 loader but at the time I thought I would never load them again.

[Baron von Trollwhack]

When the democrat congress passes a trillion dollar spending bill one day, assembled the night before and consisting of more than 1100 pages, can anyone here really say that anyone of them really knew what they were approving?

Now, if they did not know what they were approving, and it was a spending bill, it means that my elected representatives were approving of me being taxed without knowing what for or how much, and they certainly knew nothing of my circumstances.

If someone can take your earnings, without regard to the reasons for the taking, or how it would affect you , or whether you approved, THAT IS TYRANNY beyond anything even the founding fathers ever saw.

BvT

[schreibwy]

Nobody is addressing the fact that some of these s.o.b.s who go into a shop and cleanout the primers are turning around and trying to sell them for a 100 bucks a 1000. Supposedly we are supposed to be hanging together to keep shooting alive in the U.S.A.; however, this behavior is doing the work of antigunners. Shooters getting priced out of the market means there are few supporters for our cause.

[Trey45]

I went to a small gunshop here locally where the owner outright refused to sell me primers he had sitting on the shelf, claiming he had sold 700 dollars worth of reloading equipment to someone and didn't want to upset them by not having primers for their new machine. He only had 1500 large pistol primers there, I had to convince him to sell me 4 trays of them. I wasn't happy, nor was he, I won't be going back.

[Down South]

I also think that primers and other components will soon be available again. I think by years end things will have settled down. I’ve given thought about the folks that have horded away primers and such and who will soon discover that they over did it big time. I’m one of the ones hoping to cash in on some of the deals that are to come.
But if I’m wrong and things don’t turn around, I have a decent stash of everything that I need.

[Sprue]

Its comforting to even be or think optimistically, it soothes the mind but...

Has any one witnessed any food prices drop as a result of gas prices falling from a year ago, nope. I don't see component prices dropping either. In fact I think it would be a safe bet to say that although Primer prices and such WILL eventually plateau and be of amble suppy, but when and at what cost will that occur?

Today I saw Winchester Primers in excess of $38 with 2K max purchase. Thats the most expensive I've saw in this state. I also saw 7.62x39 priced at 599.95 for 1280 rnds. $150 for 300 223 rnds and that stuff was fresh off the truck.

As I mentioned previously, food prices haven't resided nor do I expect component prices either. I CAN see the prices plateauing somewhere, but then I also expect to see brick counts eventually decrease from 1K packaging to say, 800 perhaps.

Just as anything else, entertainment, food, gas, you name it. We will continue to get less for more. As has been said many times before, cheap pricing on anything, is something of the past.

No, I don't have a thing to backup these comments, its only based on the immediate past.

However, my gut feeling continues to render nothing but 50/50 greed mixed with dems rehtoric.

I buy Stocks when they are at low, as in yesterday and today.

Its plain and simple, snooze and you loose and/or pay more.

Myself I don't have anything close to the term: stock piled. However in direct response to the original post, I can see frinzies taking place at the BBoomers Estate sales. (Nothing new there) :violin:

[Recluse]

As I mentioned previously, food prices haven't resided nor do I expect component prices either. I CAN see the prices plateauing somewhere, but then I also expect to see brick counts eventually decrease from 1K packaging to say, 800 perhaps.

Just as anything else, entertainment, food, gas, you name it. We will continue to get less for more. As has been said many times before, cheap pricing on anything, is something of the past.

Myself I don't have anything close to the term: stock piled. However in direct response to the original post, I can see frinzies taking place at the BBoomers Estate sales. (Nothing new there) :violin:

In one sense, this is apples to oranges. After all, when the demand for gasoline plummeted, so did the prices. I had to fly to Maine for a funeral. I paid a low of $3.28/gallon for auto gas, which my plane is STC'd for, to a high of $7.68/gallon in Rochester, New York. Ironically, both the HIGHEST and the LOWEST prices I paid for fuel occurred in the same state: New York.

People have to eat. . . just about everyday. If we're not cooking it ourselves, we're buying it from someone else who cooked and prepared it. People do not have to shoot everyday--or even every week. . . or even every month, or every year.

Or ever.

We shoot because we enjoy it. Some shoot because we hunt. Some shoot because we compete. Some shoot because we want to stay proficient.

But we do not need bullets to satisfy our basic hiearchy of needs.

In some instances, I can see the price of primers staying high. But in more others, I can see a reduction in prices. A LOT of that will depend not solely on the retailer--but the manufacturer and wholesaler.

Again, if we were to simply quit shooting and reloading for say, eighteen months, all the way across the nation, it might get interesting. Yes, the gov't has upped the demand for military ammo--but not all manufacturers are in that contract. LE generally spreads the contracts around, depending upon agency and location and budget.

But there are a LOT less cops out there than regular everyday gun-owners. And most regular, everyday gun-owners shoot a whole lot more than cops to on their best days. Just the way it is.

If we were to eliminate the demand while the supply is still being generated (ie, oil refineries still pumping, but nobody buying gas), you'd see prices come down. Then you guy your components at your NORMAL pace and shoot/reload at your NORMAL pace.

Problem is, we gun-owners can't ever get our collective BM stuff together. When less than ten to five percent of us can even agree to join, let alone support, pro-RKBA organizations, ain't no way in the Hot Place Below we'll ever be able to "not shoot" for a while and do it in a coordinated manner.

Now, as far as the yuppy newbie reloaders go. . . these folks are sheople. When the "scare" is over, they'll look at the piles and piles of components they have and start getting rid of them. Their first instinct will be to "make a little coin" on them. Only the stoooopid will buy from them (of which we have a few in our gun-owners' world). But the rest of us will see the prices online and at our local good-deal gun store and tell the yuppies to try sprinkling those primers on their quiche and chasing it all down with a Perrier.

Sooner rather than later, the yuppies excess inventory will be on the market at fair-value prices.

My prediction.

:coffee:

[jdowney]

Has any one witnessed any food prices drop as a result of gas prices falling from a year ago, nope.

I sure have! A gallon of milk cost me about $3.50 last summer, if I was lucky it was on sale for $2.50 as a loss leader. Last time I got it on sale it was $1.50, regular price around $2.00 (I'm rounding up of course). Milk is a good one to watch because it really follows fuel prices, and not because they use the corn feed for ethanol!

My grocery bill overall is not quite back down to 2004 levels, but its a heck of a lot closer than last year!

[Trey45]

My food bill has dropped as well since fuel prices dropped. Nothing like it was a couple years ago, but it's still lower than it was last summer for sure.

[clodhopper]

I have seen a reduction in food prices, but the manafactures are doing their best to resist. Very little "regular" prices have moved down but the sale prices are showing it.

[Tom Herman]

I started reloading to save money and be able to shoot more. After getting started I discovered reloading to be another hobby in it's self.

The whole shooting hobby is FUN! There are so many aspects to it... Shooting is just a part. Reloading is another, then there is casting, and tuning loads to a particular firearm... I'm sure we can all figure out other parts.

Happy Shootin'! -Tom

[mike in co]

sprue....me thinks you are wrong.
i have not seen an increase in my cost of primers, only a shortage. i'm hoping the mfg do not do anymore that adjust for costs.....my costs are essentially the same this year as last,,,,
this is as a dealer buying from distributuion houses.
its a short term spike cause by a varirity of issues, election, end of year typical low inventories,,,and a massive spike in buying.

i pay 2 bucks for gas that was $4 a yr ago.....
not all things that happen in life is a consiracy.

mike in co


Its comforting to even be or think optimistically, it soothes the mind but...

Has any one witnessed any food prices drop as a result of gas prices falling from a year ago, nope. I don't see component prices dropping either. In fact I think it would be a safe bet to say that although Primer prices and such WILL eventually plateau and be of amble suppy, but when and at what cost will that occur?

Today I saw Winchester Primers in excess of $38 with 2K max purchase. Thats the most expensive I've saw in this state. I also saw 7.62x39 priced at 599.95 for 1280 rnds. $150 for 300 223 rnds and that stuff was fresh off the truck.

As I mentioned previously, food prices haven't resided nor do I expect component prices either. I CAN see the prices plateauing somewhere, but then I also expect to see brick counts eventually decrease from 1K packaging to say, 800 perhaps.

Just as anything else, entertainment, food, gas, you name it. We will continue to get less for more. As has been said many times before, cheap pricing on anything, is something of the past.

No, I don't have a thing to backup these comments, its only based on the immediate past.

However, my gut feeling continues to render nothing but 50/50 greed mixed with dems rehtoric.

I buy Stocks when they are at low, as in yesterday and today.

Its plain and simple, snooze and you loose and/or pay more.

Myself I don't have anything close to the term: stock piled. However in direct response to the original post, I can see frinzies taking place at the BBoomers Estate sales. (Nothing new there) :violin:

[captaint]

I'm sure glad I don't need primers right now. Like most of us however, I will be needing some later on. here's hoping this business cools off after a while, I think it will. One obvious question, though.. I may have to consider using large rifle primers in large pistol cases. I'm sure the rifle primers are hotter. With midrange loads (5.3 grs of 231 and 200 gr boolit) all should be relatively OK?

[Dale53]

Rifle primers are taller than pistol primers. In properly constructed pistol cases, you will get protruding primers and that can be EXTREMELY unsafe.

Primers should be seated until they "bottom". When properly seated they should be .003-.005" BELOW the case head. This will not likely be the case when trying to use Large Rifle primers in pistol cases.

On the other hand, small rifle primers and small pistol primers are the same size and they can be substituted in certain cases (although it is not always a good idea).

Dale53

[madsenshooter]

If you have a primer pocket uniformer, cutting to the proper depth so that you can use a large rifle in large pistol is no problem. I have a more daunting task, a friend wants me to load some 454 Casull for him. I have no small rifle primers, so I'm going to have to use the primer pocket uniformer to cut his pockets to large rifle. Should be no problem, he's using them in a lever action rifle anyway.

[johnly]

I purchased my 50k stock of primers in October 08 using a Graf's dealer account before the prices (<$100/case) went gonzo. They are iin zip lock bags in ammo cans and should last me BHO leave office. The amount you purchase and keep on hand is all dependant on how many you use each year. If the BHO administration limits the imports of components from overseas, then Blount, and Remington can pretty much pick their price. We'll have to wait and see if they want to sell a 100 million primers at $50/1000 or 200 million primers at $25/1000.

John

[mike in co]

I purchased my 50k stock of primers in October 08 using a Graf's dealer account before the prices (<$100/case) went gonzo. They are iin zip lock bags in ammo cans and should last me BHO leave office. The amount you purchase and keep on hand is all dependant on how many you use each year. If the BHO administration limits the imports of components from overseas, then Blount, and Remington can pretty much pick their price. We'll have to wait and see if they want to sell a 100 million primers at $50/1000 or 200 million primers at $25/1000.

John


get them out of the ammo cans!

in a fire that is a bomb......if burried in your back yard , fine; but in your house that is a hazard.
just store them above any possible water line.

mike in co

[trickyasafox]

I wish food prices would go down, they have been steady as rock here- if not still slightly climbing- with gas prices again.

[GabbyM]

Lack of faith in the future of the dollar has a lot to do with hording commodities. IMO. Like gold and bullets. Some days I think people are over reacting. Then other days. Like when I see Obama bowing to the King of Saudi Arabia. I get plum down on our prospects.

[Lloyd Smale]

this shortage is bs though. THeres no excuse for it. They claim war effort but then why is there a shortage of russian made primers and wolf ammo too! Ill tell you whats happening is somewhere in the country theres wharehouses stacked with this stuff and people are sitting on it waiting for the right price and there also doing it to permantly raise the prices off all loading components. I think there smart enough not to flood the market right now. My guess is the prices you paid last year are going to be what we in the future call the good old days. Give you another example. Theres a big shortage of 380 ammo right now. NOw id dont know of any wars fought with it. I just picked up about 600 rounds my buddys gun shop had and posted elsewhere that i picked it up and was offered 50 fricking dollars for a 20 round box of xtps! I coldnt bring myself to sell them at that price and for what there really worth is isnt worth shipping them. Ive got a couple cdps to feed so it surely wont go to waste. Its about the only handgun round i have guns for and have never reloaded. Ive got components for if i ever have to though.

[Mtman314]

I have no idea what will happen in the future, <hiding the crystal ball> I got extremely lucky on sunday. I went into Big R in downtown billings to get a rcbs 32 trim shell holder and they had in 3000 large pistol magnum primers so I picked up 1000 of them for 32 bucks. now I have a bit of breathing room and won't touch below my minimum stash.

[Baron von Trollwhack]

If you shop for food, you surely cannot have missed the fact that while food prices are in fact UP, food has also been repackaged, and relabeled, oftentimes into SMALLER packages, and frequently in slightly different, lesser quantities in the rebadged containers. This is to disguise the price increases.

Primers, like cornflakes, are never going down again(except for some of the extreme gouging going on), and may in reality, become like primers in Russia, firearms and pocketknives in Britain, honesty in politics, or Christians in saudi.

BvT

[Sprue]

this shortage is bs though. THeres no excuse for it. They claim war effort but then why is there a shortage of russian made primers and wolf ammo too! Ill tell you whats happening is somewhere in the country theres wharehouses stacked with this stuff and people are sitting on it waiting for the right price and there also doing it to permantly raise the prices off all loading components. I think there smart enough not to flood the market right now. My guess is the prices you paid last year are going to be what we in the future call the good old days. Give you another example. Theres a big shortage of 380 ammo right now. NOw id dont know of any wars fought with it. I just picked up about 600 rounds my buddys gun shop had and posted elsewhere that i picked it up and was offered 50 fricking dollars for a 20 round box of xtps! I coldnt bring myself to sell them at that price and for what there really worth is isnt worth shipping them. Ive got a couple cdps to feed so it surely wont go to waste. Its about the only handgun round i have guns for and have never reloaded. Ive got components for if i ever have to though.

+ 1 Lloyd

Something is going on, some way, some how.... my sentiments exactly. For those who are waiting for falling prices, it ain't happening in todays world. Like I said before. The only way prices will drop is IF the package content/weight shrinks. The days of the Half Gallon Ice creme is a figment of the the past. Oh how I wish that I'm wrong...............

[mike in co]

guys...i'm sorta on the inside as i am a dealer.
the boat with russian primers is not here. its about 2 months late.
the war issue has been going on for 5 years plus....there was one and only one change in the market: the election.

the buying frenzy is the issue. i posted it before. first guns, then ammo , then components.

one cannot easily add to the production of primers. as has been pointed out, part of the process is by hand, and a learned skill. most manufactures recognized this as a spike and will not spend capital to build more capacity, they may work more hours.

as i pointed out...at this point, my cost on primers has not increased to match the frenzy pricing.


mass hording by some party...you are kidding me!

mike in co

[klcarroll]

A significant point to remember is that the manufacturers are aware of the various factors that are contributing to this shortage; .......And they will certainly NOT hire more trained personnel and/or buy more expensive equipment merely to cover a brief period of panic buying: .......Because they KNOW those assets will be surplus to their needs in the near future.

Like any other business, .....They are not into wasting money. (...Unless you happen to be in the banking business![smilie=1:)

Kent

[Muddy Creek Sam]

Just got this in an email from my Gunsmith


Now for some quick news about reloading components. All of us reloaders are aware of the present difficulty in getting components. Unfortunately, it will probably get worse. I've had Winchester primers on backorder for customers since last year with Black Hills Shooters Supply. They are one of the largest reloading component distributors in the country. They called last Saturday to say they had gotten a few primers in and were filling some of the backorders on file, but did not have enough for all of them. I could not order any more than what I already had on the order. But the really Bad News was that they DID NOT expect any more primers THIS YEAR!! Powder is becoming the same way. If you can find any sources for components, it's best to grab them while you can even if the prices are high.


Sam :(

[sheepdog]

I hope you're all right. But people who've seen alot of this are saying its never been this bad this long. I'm buying all the primers I can, but only at preelection prices.

[TAWILDCATT]

I first bought primers at $3.50 a 1000.[1939] afew yrs ago it was $10 per 1000.
my wage in 1939 was .35 an hr.by the 1960 I was making $2.50.when I retired it was $12.in 1991.
winchester makes 1,600,000 45acp a day.they are backordered 200,000,000.
Lee makes one model press at 150 a day they are back ordered 2,000.
for gods sake get a life.more people than you can hope to imagin are shooting and reloading.before WW2 few reloaded and the lyman tong tool was the most used.pacific made the "C" press,I saw it in a book.I dont remember a gun store but hardware stores sold guns.I take that back there was Iverjohnson store in boston aand kirkwood bros in boston one was 3 storied and the other a small hole in the wall.
After WW1 win went bankrupt caused by expansion for the war.so did the rest.
Lyman too,until marlin bought them.
WW2 the gun manufactures went bankrupt after.they learned their lesson then and dont expand.
dont believe me look it up,and see who bought them out.:coffee:[smilie=1:

[ktw]

$3.50 in 1939 is the equivalent of $53.71 in 2008 after adjusting for inflation.

The price has gone up, just like everything else, due to inflation. Over a broad span of time the cost hasn't changed as much many think it has.

-ktw

[1Shirt]

Gotta hope that the optomists in this thread are right! However hope never accomplishes much and never has. So, if there are newbees out there who have bought heaps of primers and no longer want to cast and just to get rid of the stuff, hope they are in my area and I can:neutral: get to them befor somebond else who is like minded.
1Shirt!:coffee:

[ghh3rd]

I think that this too shall pass, probably leaving us with higher prices than when it started, about like the food fiasco (they didn't change back that much here in Tampa).

The thing that saddens me is thinking that my children may get interested in this hobby and face more challenges than any of us have ever seen.

Randy

[quasi]

everybody is hoarding primers because everybody is hoarding primers!

[Recluse]

The price has gone up, just like everything else, due to inflation. Over a broad span of time the cost hasn't changed as much many think it has.

-ktw

Sorry, but THAT I HAVE to disagree with. :)

If you look at the cost of labor alone, you'll see where costs have skyrocketed. In 1939, I'm not sure how many employers were paying for healthcare coverage, SS and Medicare. Likewise, manufacturers weren't paying all the fees, permits, ordinances and licenses they are today to nebulous little gnat-like agencies such as EPA, OSHA, et al.

Then there is the cost of fuel--for employees to get to work, to transport goods to market, etc.

And then, of course, look at how high taxes alone have skyrocketed since 1939.

I would respectfully submit that costs HAVE risen/changed dramatically.

:coffee:

[rhead]

$3.50 in 1939 is the equivalent of $53.71 in 2008 after adjusting for inflation.

The price has gone up, just like everything else, due to inflation. Over a broad span of time the cost hasn't changed as much many think it has.

-ktw

Yep!! When you figure it in hours worked to obtain the commodoty (the only realistic way to compare prices over time) the $30 to $40 prices per carton are a whale of a bargin. They are cheaper than they were, if you can find them.

The value of an article is based only on supply and demand. The price of an article also reflects the value of the money.

I wish I had some advice for those who gotcaught short before the supplies dried up. Hope this is temporary.

[EMC45]

The ones that buy out a shop and then gouge others on the prices are not part of the folks that I associate with. They are sharks! I too believe this will slow down (the Primer/component madness) and prices will come back down. Remember this happened in the 90s too. I also believe there will be a good bit of "used" gear on the market from those who didn't have the patience or dedication to stick to casting/reloading. This will also be provoked by the decrease in ammo costs as well. Why reload when you can buy for cheap prices again? I can't wait!

[jdowney]

Sorry, but THAT I HAVE to disagree with. :)

If you look at the cost of labor alone, you'll see where costs have skyrocketed. In 1939, I'm not sure how many employers were paying for healthcare coverage, SS and Medicare. Likewise, manufacturers weren't paying all the fees, permits, ordinances and licenses they are today to nebulous little gnat-like agencies such as EPA, OSHA, et al.

Then there is the cost of fuel--for employees to get to work, to transport goods to market, etc.

And then, of course, look at how high taxes alone have skyrocketed since 1939.

I would respectfully submit that costs HAVE risen/changed dramatically.

:coffee:

Inflation and rising costs are two different things the way you're trying to use the logic. Look at costs relative to wages as rhead and others have pointed out, and better yet, back that up by cross referencing to a relatively useless commodity like gold. You'll find that almost everything is cheaper now than even in the 1960's, let alone the 1930's. If the true costs of commodities and necessities were really doing what you suggest over the last 80 years, we'd be in something close to anarchy.

[Idaho_Elk_Huntr]

You guys are being gouged by shops if prices are up much. Prices here have been regular price. I bought Federal LR and WLR for $23.99 per thousand last week. Usually everything runs a little higher up here but seems the shop deal with has some of the best prices on anything gun related

[thenaaks]

everybody is hoarding primers because everybody is hoarding primers!

+1 100%
if i were sure i could get them later, i would buy them later...also just not sure how far away later is

besides, a penny per round extra is cheap insurance!

[Bad Water Bill]

Here is something my dad always complained about. In 1939 he also worked for .35 per hour, had 5 dependents worth $500.00 EACH. Over the past 70 years wages have increased many fold but look how little the deduction has increased.Can you guess which dept of the gov has the most employees. You would think with the advent of the computer they could cut back on their people also.

[Dale53]

What we really need is a flat 10% tax on all income. NO DEDUCTIONS, and your tax return could be a two line post card:

1 - Income
2 - 10% of income is the final tax

That way, we would ALL pay our fair share (from lowest to highest), NO ONE would be penalized with a "progressive tax" (which is really REGRESSIVE - make more money, pay more tax but NO MORE THAN the same proportion of your income - no one gets penalized for working hard).

We could then get rid of nearly all of the tax preparers (no disrespect to the practitioners) AND would only need about 1% of the IRS.

EVERY one who could read could prepare their own taxes. The government would end up with more net money, we would not "hurt" at tax time (fill out your tax form post card in three minutes) and there would be NO LOOPHOLES. It'll never happen as there are too many important politicians and people who pay no taxes (through loopholes) and they want that to continue.

If it was thought that there should be a minimum income below which people should pay no taxes that line could be easily set. My opinion, is EVERY one should pay their 10% (if you make nothing, you pay nothing).

FWIW
Dale53

[felix]

NO tax except sales tax, Dale! Why make money if you or yours aren't going to spend it? I figure that 1 to 3 percent, to be adjusted annually would be sufficient to run a military. Send the rest of the dc folks out to monitor garage sales and collect the sales tax there. Tax is in effect whenever money changes hands. No escape, not even for stock trades. ... felix

[klcarroll]

@Felix;

On first inspection, ......I really like that idea!!

No more "Multi Taxing"!!!

Kent

[shooterg]

Of course, a lot of us here barter and sell to each other - no sales tax collected there. Plus each merchant must now work for the Feds in addition to his state and locality. I still kinda like Dick Armey's version of the flat tax, although neither tax reform will ever occur. Too many lawyers and accountants would need a "bailout" then !

[felix]

Yeah. KLC, sales tax works for reverse accounting systems as well. Like for banks or insurance companies. They buy your money, and then you buy your money back from them at end of term via contract or casualty respectively. I talked at length, person to person, when Bill Archer was a leading member of the Ways and Means committee back in 1980 after a town meeting in Katy, TX, when I lived in Houston. In a nutshell, he said it would never fly because he could not get the votes necessary to pass such a deal. He actually admitted to discussing that same type of analysis his staff had already done previously. Yes, it is all about control over us peeons by the higher ups. ... felix

[felix]

No, barter systems (a quasi garage sale) would require a business permit. The lawyers and accountants would be hired to enforce the new SINGLE sales tax law, NOT laws (plural). ... felix

[rhead]

Of course, a lot of us here barter and sell to each other - no sales tax collected there. Plus each merchant must now work for the Feds in addition to his state and locality. I still kinda like Dick Armey's version of the flat tax, although neither tax reform will ever occur. Too many lawyers and accountants would need a "bailout" then !


The need for a bailout would be short lived if they did not get one. They would either find another job or starve. If they did recieve a bailout they would soon need another.

[BD]

I've long been a proponent of a flat income tax system with no deductions, AND no deficit spending. In addition to being fair, it would allow us to quantitatively evaluate the goobermint.

We would see the tax rate rise or fall in real terms each year as a direct result of goobermint spending. Before entering into any long term conflicts we'd be able to discuss the real financial cost in terms directly understood by each and every one of us.

I have never lived in a "sales tax only" economy, but I have lived in an "import duty only" economy. The result is widespread cheating and smuggling. Unfortunately when you encourage the smuggling of everyday commodities, you also develop the means and routes to smuggle even more profitable stuff like drugs and guns. And that is exactly what happened on Anguilla where I lived.

I personally believe that the resistance to the flat tax is not based on any real economic foundation, I think it's more that the folks in DC are totally petrified of being held fiscally responsible on a yearly basis.

Property taxes are what really bother me. It seems like a person ought to eventually be able to truly own their land. I believe the resistance to eliminating the property tax is the fear by goobermint that without the need to earn enough to stay on our land, a lot of us would just drop out of the economy all together and they'd get no income from us at all.

BD

[felix]

Bill, there will always be cheating and smuggling, like there will always be the poor. That will only be fixed when the Lord returns. ... felix

Property tax won't be any more under a TRUE sales tax system. If fact, for the idea to work, there won't be any other kind of tax, expressed or implied. Inheritance tax will be relegated to sales tax like any other xfer of property, including raw money. ... felix

[Tom Herman]

Property taxes are what really bother me. It seems like a person ought to eventually be able to truly own their land. BD

I agree whole heartedly! I don't mind paying a fair income tax. Property taxes flat out bother me. Once you buy something, it should be yours, no questions asked, no further taxes due on it.

Happy Shootin! -Tom

[Catshooter]

Back on topic.

"When the Primer Panic of 2009 ends, guess what?"

It'll be the year 2011.


Cat

[mike in co]

What we really need is a flat 10% tax on all income. NO DEDUCTIONS, and your tax return could be a two line post card:

1 - Income
2 - 10% of income is the final tax

That way, we would ALL pay our fair share (from lowest to highest), NO ONE would be penalized with a "progressive tax" (which is really REGRESSIVE - make more money, pay more tax but NO MORE THAN the same proportion of your income - no one gets penalized for working hard).

We could then get rid of nearly all of the tax preparers (no disrespect to the practitioners) AND would only need about 1% of the IRS.

EVERY one who could read could prepare their own taxes. The government would end up with more net money, we would not "hurt" at tax time (fill out your tax form post card in three minutes) and there would be NO LOOPHOLES. It'll never happen as there are too many important politicians and people who pay no taxes (through loopholes) and they want that to continue.

If it was thought that there should be a minimum income below which people should pay no taxes that line could be easily set. My opinion, is EVERY one should pay their 10% (if you make nothing, you pay nothing).

FWIW
Dale53

dale,
i will post this only once.
the irs collects taxes for which there is no definition.
companies pay income taxes on "PROFITS AND GAINS". the irs collects taxes from individuals under the same laws/rules.,BUT has no definition of what is taxed......they have examples BUT NO LAWS TO COLLECT TAXES ON THE WAGES OF INDIVIDUALS.

it has been challenged many times, but since they own the tax courts, you know who wins. you do not have to believe me. simply go read the irs tax code...10cfr26..i think ,,its been a while.

ok stepping down from my soap box, the problem with any fixed tax is two fold.
FIRST: it applys a law that currently does not exist( taxing individuals), and
TWO: once the law is inplace it would be like the current tax rate rules....they are adjustable at the whim of congress.
no i will not indorse, not vote for a flat tax.

mike in co.
ps
( here is a simple example of taxes at work.
company A hires a contract employee from company B.
company A pays company B $40/hr for the employee.
company B pays employee $30/hr for his work.
at the end of a year company A has paid company B $83,200 for services rendered.
company B has paid the employee $62,400 for services rendered.

tax time.
company B took in $83,200 with costs of $62,400 for a net profit of $20,800.
company B owes a tax on its profits and gains of $20,800.
and this is how the irs see the transaction( no deduction, other costs involved).

now the employee values his services at $30/hr.
he recieved $62,400 for 2080 hrs of services rendered.
since the value of his services is $62,400 and recieved $62,400, he had no gain nor profit.
if he was a company he would owe no tax, but the irs views this as "income" by example, not by law, and taxes us working people at no value of our time.....pure bs.
go look at the taxes collected in 1950 and percent paid by "working " people., now go look at the taxes collected in 2000 and the percent paid by working people.
just who is funding the "gratis" programs "offered" by "our" government.

sorry it is all out of hand. i was happy to see the tea parties arounf the country on the 15th.)

[BD]

Mike,
So you prefer the current system? I'd be willing to vote for a flat tax just so we could quantify what the goobermint is doing.

BD

[mike in co]

Mike,
So you prefer the current system? I'd be willing to vote for a flat tax just so we could quantify what the goobermint is doing.

BD

the current system, no; the current law, yes....

income taxes paid by those that have profits and gains.

[Bad Water Bill]

A friewnd went to the Kankakee IL gun show today. Large rifle primers $48.00 per 1K. Sorry SOLD OUT, see you next year when my next shipment is expected is what he was told. Will we be able to keep on reloading if this keeps uo?

[Tom Herman]

But there was some powder. The powder guy was back, his selection was about 10% of what it normally is, and the powders available are stuff that nobody wants, which is why it was still there.
Plenty of Estate Sale stuff was present: Crap was coming out of the woodwork with high prices to match.
Opened (ugh!) bottles and cans of mystery powder, and other stuff that should have been dumpstered 20 years ago.
I look forward to when the immediate crisis is over, and we can go back to some semblence of normalcy.
I, too, hope that there will be bargains on stuff as people try to unload what they squirreled away.
The current situation is an eyebrow raiser... If I hadn't socked away a lot of primers and powders (most of it last summer, well before the election), I'd be in a world of hurt today. And I am so happy that I learned to cast last year!
A buddy called me the other day lamenting about his new (to him) Taurus SAA, and not being able to find any ammo... I was able to fix him up with some .45 LC..
I will probably work towards socking away x10 what I did last year...

Happy Shootin'! -Tom

[Mtman314]

The last I heard of on the flat tax, they were looking at 23% and that wasn't even taking into account any state taxes which would be above and beyond.

[Brick85]

I take something of a middle-of-the-road stance, though I don't have a lot of years in the hobby to back up my opinion. When prices go up across an industry, it's a silly industrialist who lets them go all the way down. This is the case even with gas prices if you look over a 3 or 5 year time period. Seems it was below $2 most of the time until Katrina or not long before, and then it climbed up to nearly $5 in some places, and then toward the end of 2008 it went back down to under $2--briefly, and it's now climbing right back up right fast. Let folks believe it's low, and they'll sigh in relief and use more. It happened every year since Katrina--it'd go down by 50 cents a gallon over time, and then next summer be up a dollar more than last year's. Yes, part of that is increased demand, part is decreased or more expensive supply, and part of that is profit.

I recently got into reloading just before the panic. Saw the panic coming and decided to get my butt in gear and get my shooting hobby up (along with the associated hobby of feeding the guns). I'd meant to do it for many years, but never quite got around to it. Primers were $30/1000, which I consider something of a baseline. To hear of them up at twice that simply stuns me. I don't think THOSE prices are sustainable, but I wouldn't be surprised to find that in two years they're at $40/1000 or even $45/1000.

As one of the "idiots" who didn't get a move on until the horse was halfway out of the barn, and who managed to buy what primers he could while they were still available (a few thousand of each size), I'm a little resentful about the yuppie newbie talk, even though I know it's not directed at me (I plan on staying with it because it's cheaper, it's fun, and I like doing things myself rather than relying on corporations, same reason I like to cook from scratch when possible).

I do agree with klcarroll in that manufacturers are not adding capacity for a fad. That makes no sense whatsoever--if demand suddenly spikes and you expect it to go down, you just raise the price and ride it out with a smile. Of course, it's possible that the manufacturers are just SAYING that they're adding capacity, but I think it's unlikely that they're lying to us, or would even be able to lie to us. Too many people on the inside talk to too many on the outside of the industry.

My take on the current shortage is that it really is a grassroots demand spike. Ammunition, black rifles, and handguns are short because a lot of people who were considering it said "Hey, we might never be able to do this if BO gets his way, so we'd better do it now!" Each person who bought a new handgun said "Hey, I probably need some ammo for this, too. . ." And then when prices started to go up and stocks started to run low, folks redoubled their buying because it might not be available any time soon.

I only hope that there really are some yuppie newbies out there who bought stuff to gouge others on it, and that they'll find folks aren't willing to buy their stuff at that price when they go to sell it so I can lay in a decent enough supply in case of another period of insecurity.


the powders available are stuff that nobody wants, which is why it was still there.

Which powders are the ones nobody wants? Maybe I'll have to look into using those. Is HS-7 one of those?

[Tom Herman]

I agree with your assessment.... Things will slowly return to normal, with prices probabaly slightly up from where they were.
To be honest, I don't remember the powders I saw (it was my quote). I know what powders I can use in my revolvers and rifles, and didn't see any of those.
I'm glad that you got into the act. Some of us are late bloomers. Although I've been reloading for over 20 years, I finally had enough with prices on bullets skyrocketing (to say nothing of leading issues with what was available), so I started casting last Spring.

Happy Shootin'! -Tom

PS: The powder guy is showing up again at the local gun shows. That should be a good sign as far as availability goes. -T

[Ole]

The ammo companies will start making primers again for reloaders when the stores can keep ammo on the shelf, and not a minute earlier.

[Ole]

Also:

If you were reloading in 1994 and don't have at least a year's worth of shooting stored up in primers, you only have yourself to blame.

[jonk]

I have more than a year's worth of LR and both SP and LP, but hardly any SR primers. Granted I only have one gun in that caliber but still...

The problem is that far from ending, the primer shortage worsens every day as more and more people place back orders. At this rate 10 years of production will be spoken for as soon as it leaves the factory.

[Baron von Trollwhack]

Just wait until the mid-term elections. If the dems do not suffer significant political losses, they will go for all those gun control things we see as tips of icebergs. BTY our national unity will dissolve too. BvT

[klcarroll]

.......At this rate 10 years of production will be spoken for as soon as it leaves the factory.


Well, ......Mr. Obama has certainly brought prosperity back to the reloading industry!![smilie=1:

Kent

[Down South]

Well, ......Mr. Obama has certainly brought prosperity back to the reloading industry!![smilie=1:

Kent
Ammo too. First time I saw a sign in Wally World was today limiting Ammo purchases. Although they didn’t have any ammo, I went just down the road to my friendly Co-Op and they had plenty.