What factors are causing the primer and powder shortage?

[delmar]

What factors, do you believe, are causing the primer and powder shortage? Is it simply a matter of demand skyrocketing because of mass hysteria? Are there people here who believe that the primer manufacturers have cut supply, in order to increase demand, the way that OPEC does with oil? If that were the case, what would be stopping other, larger chemical companies like Dow Corning or Monsanto from jumping into the market and making a killing off the current situation?


If the shortage is due to simply to increased demand, what can we as consumers do to remedy the problem? I have been learning to reload my spent primers with strike anywhere match tips. Do I need to learn to make black powder too? Any other suggestions?

[madcaster]

I do know this,the factories HAVE TO work SAFELY and that a shortage is no reason to get workers killed in an accident.
Not trying to be a smart*%_,just kinda giving an opinion...

[rhead]

They were already at near capacity. The demand increased with a small but significant increase in gun owners who also started from scratch with their ammo supply. Another group of established nonreloading shooters decided to start reloading and had to tool up and lay in their supplies. Ditto on casting. It will llast until the demand grows enough to justify the expense of expanding the factories, or the demand slacks off enough that they can keep up with the demand. If the currentg state continues with the demand just barely outstripping the supply it will take a while. They are not going to expand a foctory in order to take advantage of a potential 1% increase in sales. The initial inventory increase in demand is of course temporary. Only time will tell what the new demand level will stabalize at.

Decreseing production will not increase demand. It will decrease it. If the supply is suffeceintly inadequate for a long enough period someone will find an alternitive, which will decrese the demand.

Does anyone have a handle on what percentage of the total primer production (civilian and military) gets sold as primers in the civilian market. My gut says it is a pretty small number but I do not recall ever seeing anything.

[archmaker]

I have no clue on how many primers get sold to civilians, but . . .

Math tells me the following . . . if the primer manufactures are able to produce a 100 primers a second and they run their machines for 23 hours a day for 365 days, that is only 302 million primers a day.

The military is requesting at least a billion rounds a year right now, not counting police and everybody else.

I am SURE they are capable of doing more than 100 a second, just an easy number to understand, and multiple by.

I think it is interesting that we are starting, and I do mean starting, to see more powder across the country, reminds me of the stores around here after Hurricane Ike and Rita.

You had blank shelves everywhere, and then things would come, be snatched up, but eventually the staples would stay longer and longer on the shelves until it looked normal. Same for gas.

[RogerWatsonfromIdaho]

delmar,

Winchester has increased its ammunition manufacturing to 24/7.
See:
http://www.winchester.com/news/newsview.aspx?storyid=263

So more Winchester primers are going into ammunition production.

When buyers get enough ammunition, we should see more primers available as components.

[26Charlie]

Thats a loaded (you should pardon the pun) term. Mass common sense would be a better description. The Democrat administration has always and ever (back to Kennedy in my own recollections) tried to restrict or eliminate guns, ammo, reloading, hunting, collecting & anything to do with guns. As soon as the election was over shooters got the message and laid in a supply of guns, ammo, and components. Why do you want the stuff? We all want it for the same reason, and it isn't to be able to have something to give back to the gummint when they decide to collect it.

[delmar]

Great input guys! I have been seeing so many threads on various sites complaining about the shortage that I thought it would be good to talk about the root cause, and what small steps we, as reloaders could do about the problem. One thing we can do is financially support forums like castboolts.com especially when they are supportive of threads like the primer shortage solution (http://castboolits.gunloads.com/showthread.php?t=50383) thread! I"m not sure I will ever make a whole bunch of my own primers, but knowing that I can helps me to resist the temptation to go out and buy every primer I can find, while they are in short supply. Resisting the temptation to "make a run on the primer bank" is probably the best thing we can do collectively, to get through the shortage.

[delmar]

delmar,

Winchester has increased its ammunition manufacturing to 24/7.
See:
http://www.winchester.com/news/newsview.aspx?storyid=263

So more Winchester primers are going into ammunition production.

When buyers get enough ammunition, we should see more primers available as components.
It's important to share that news. Thanks Roger!

[mooman76]

I know when you ru equipment around the clock especially when it's not used to it. You're going to get mor down time for breakage. And if they are purposely doing it to raise the prices then they must have talked Lee and Lyman and the other parts companies to cut back too to increase prices.
No I think it's just demand increase because of several factors. The war, The increase in metal prices which is gone now but it helped start this and mostly mass hysteria! I constantly heard reports of people going into dealers and buying up all the primers they could get. The raise in metal prices increased the amount of new reloaders because they drove up ammo prices which never had a chance to drop. The mass hysteria also increased the amount of new reloaders. It's something we will just have to wait out like the gas prices of last year.

[freedom475]

I live in a real small town, we have one sporting goods store, the owner was lucky enough to get in 16,000 primers for us.... 1st guy walked in (from out of town) and said "I'll take 10K", the next guy though the doors said "I'll take the remaining 6K" :(:(:confused:

Us locals had been waiting on this too... we could all have gotten a few and been shooting. But these jokers bought every one for there stockpile. :Fire:

[uncle joe]

the guy I work for has supports the local state trooper in his competition shooting, so they are close. The boss is hearing (not necessarly from the trooper friend) that there is a push to make primers have a limited shelf life. I don't know if this is true or not, but I am sure more people are hearing the same thing. If so, this could be some of the cause of the hoarding.
just my 2c. worth
UJ

[chaos]

the guy I work for has supports the local state trooper in his competition shooting, so they are close. The boss is hearing (not necessarly from the trooper friend) that there is a push to make primers have a limited shelf life. I don't know if this is true or not, but I am sure more people are hearing the same thing. If so, this could be some of the cause of the hoarding.
just my 2c. worth
UJ

This is the same B.S. Rumor that went around the last time we had an anti gun in Office. Same thing happened with primer and powder, It just didn't last this long.
Its going to be OK fellas. Supply will catch back up.

I still have Winchester primers in White sleeves. I just found out as of late that they are in Blue. I also am still reloading Winny powder out of metal cans. Everybody stacked it deep during the last scare and that's what is happening again.

[softpoint]

I live in a real small town, we have one sporting goods store, the owner was lucky enough to get in 16,000 primers for us.... 1st guy walked in (from out of town) and said "I'll take 10K", the next guy though the doors said "I'll take the remaining 6K" :(:(:confused:

Us locals had been waiting on this too... we could all have gotten a few and been shooting. But these jokers bought every one for there stockpile. :Fire:

I have heard both sides of the " hoarding" issue. I can't fault anyone for buying as many components as they think they will need, I have done the same thing. But now I think I have enough to last me a long time. Maybe not if I choose to shoot 8 hrs. a day every day, But I have quite a lot(for me), so I don't buy as much now, in an effort to help things "catch UP". I don't think its quite right to buy up large quantitys just to resell at hugely inflated prices. Now I can't see anything wrong with making money either, but I bet if I bought all the gas stations in town and then raised the price to $10 a gallon, the folks who are gouging other folks on primers would be some of the first to complain.
So, I feel like those of us who have a "quantity" of supplies could help end this situation by just keeping our supply"topped off" This would both give the manufacterors time to catch up, and limit the profit in gouging the prices.
What do others here think?

[1Shirt]

Well, all that is stated is real and the factors are realistic. However, I notice that even the anti gun liberals are buying guns and ammo, and that I think is based upon just one thing. That is FEAR of the Obama administration and an anti gun/hunting/shooting congress. After all is said, it is a supply and demand factor.
Even the anti's who own a few guns that have been handed down from grandpa etc. don't want them registered, taxed, or confiscated. Primer and powder shortage is just a part of the whole thing.
1Shirt!:coffee::coffee:

[montana_charlie]

I don't think its quite right to buy up large quantitys just to resell at hugely inflated prices. Now I can't see anything wrong with making money either, but I bet if I bought all the gas stations in town and then raised the price to $10 a gallon, the folks who are gouging other folks on primers would be some of the first to complain.
If Obama decided to put a tax on primers that doubled the price to us, even if the proceeds would buy medical treatment for victims of accidental shootings, we would hate him for it...and call him dirty names.

The guy who buys all the primers he can find, just resell them at double the price because there is a shortage, is as low down as an ambulance-chaser lawyer.
Both work to line their pockets by capitalizing on the misery of others.

If he gets hated and called dirty names...he asked for it.
CM

[S.R.Custom]

I live in a real small town, we have one sporting goods store, the owner was lucky enough to get in 16,000 primers for us.... 1st guy walked in (from out of town) and said "I'll take 10K", the next guy though the doors said "I'll take the remaining 6K" :(:(:confused:

Us locals had been waiting on this too... we could all have gotten a few and been shooting. But these jokers bought every one for there stockpile. :Fire:

That's fear and stupidity for ya... ;)

[Rocky Raab]

A few facts:

Primers are only partially machine made. Inserting the priming compound is done manually because that's the only way it can be done right - believe it or not. It is not a skill one acquires on the first try, either.

Building an explosives plant is not like throwing up a McDonald's. Permtting, studies and lawsuits take decades.

[redneckdan]

Previously the military ordered 1.4 billion rds of small arms a year. FY09 the order was for 2.0 billion. Since the clintonistas closed down the majority of federally owned ammuniton plants, this extra has to come from the civilian market. Even though the .gov buys the ammo for about 20 cents a round less than we do, the garuntee of a goverment contract is more desirable to the manufactures. Between the extra .gov demand and increased civilian demand the manufactures cannot keep up. CCI is running at full capacity. From what i've been told primers are the bottle neck. Like has been stated before, there is really no better way to make the primers and its not easy to increase production capacity.

[Slow Elk 45/70]

Well we do have troops fighting in 2 foreign countries, and they , the military are going to get theirs first, law-enforcement 2ND, we are last, and yes a lot of new guys getting into the loading game and the folks that buy to re-sell are taking a toll.

If the small town merchants would smarten up, the would not allow anyone to waltz in and buy 1/2 of their stock. Some of them are putting a limit on what a customer can buy at one time. This helps everyone for the time being.

If we as re-loaders refuse to buy the inflated primers, we can stop the re-sellers, or at least slow them down. People on Gun Broker are paying $50-85 a 1000 for Primers!!! This is crazy.
As long as people keep buying , they will keep exploiting the market. IMHO[smilie=1:

[mold maker]

It's a simple equation. More gun owners, owning more guns, require more ammo. Scared reloaders, both old and new, need components. Everybody, fearing shortage, created one. (remember Johnny Carson and toilet paper)
The war is the nearest to a stable quantity user in the whole equation. No more troops added to the mix so no big increase in ammo use.
If everyone will just take a deep breath and be patient, it will all come back to (a new) normal.
Inventory on the shelves will increase, and prices will fall to a more normal supply/demand level.
Prices will naturally never return to pre shortage. nothing else will be the same price as 2 years ago.
It is us and the thousands who have joined us that are causing every bit of the problem.
I know folks who had to buy ammo every time they left home to shoot. These same folks now have many thousands of rounds stored in the closet. Many who hadn't reloaded in years went nuts, and laid in a 50 year supply.
Lets just slowly use what we have, and only replace what we NEED.
If I'm wrong, It won't matter for long anyway.

[mooman76]

I think I'm going to shoot BP for awhile or at least most of the time.

[Echo]

I just received an E from the CMP (I imagine many of you received the same E) saying that due to demand, they are declaring the Greek 30-06 out-of-stock for the time being, and placing a limit on the amount anyone can order in a calender year (10 cans per year).

[mike in co]

If Obama decided to put a tax on primers that doubled the price to us, even if the proceeds would buy medical treatment for victims of accidental shootings, we would hate him for it...and call him dirty names.

The guy who buys all the primers he can find, just resell them at double the price because there is a shortage, is as low down as an ambulance-chaser lawyer.
Both work to line their pockets by capitalizing on the misery of others.

If he gets hated and called dirty names...he asked for it.
CM

what misery in reloading ???

if you do not like capitalism....leave.


its how this country was built.

you don't like it.....'tuff

go look at the history of gold minning in the west and alaska.

what would be considered ridiculuse prices...but it was what the martet would bear.

my guess is you are on the outside looking in, missed the boat and are whinning.


mike in co
THE COLORADO BRASS COMPANY
and seller of market priced primers

[archmaker]

About the guy buys all the primers and then sells them at a profit, okay fine.

I am not going to begrudge him, but do not come and whine when you have 200,000 primers and nobody wants to pay you 1/2 what you paid for them.

Unless you think you deserve to get some of the TARP funds that Obama is handing out. Because you took a gamble and lost.

Will it happen, I do not know, but . . . in general in the American market sanity eventually wins out.

[MT Gianni]

I believe that companies make more profit on ammunition than component sales. It would be easy for them to put all primers into ammo. They should be commended for at least keeping the flow going to reloaders.

[Baron von Trollwhack]

The biggest factor causing the shortage is our genetic heritage.

Oddly, in my case, my lately arriving grangfather caught the bug at Ellis, while mom's side got it via a Maryland indenture contract and later pionering work at Redstone OLD Fort long before. Funny, I see many, like grandfather, from other odd places too, who got the bug for hoarding stores somehow.

When my and your forefathers saw the way the British were screwing with them from before, during and after the French and Indian war, and it kept up for years, they started to manufacture their own rifles, and other goods, and ultimately, to hoard supplies for the militia, at various places, including a place up North of me in CONCORD, a little outside of Boston. Powder, Shot, Gun flints by the cask, homemade cartridge boxes, local militia flags, you know.

www.americanrevwar.homestead.com/files/LEXCON.HTM.



April 15 was not always tax day as it is now. First, it was Tea Party time in Boston in 1773. Later, it was decision time in Lexington and, still later that day, in Concord .

Other events followed. Soon readiness became like a family quirk, saying, or resemblance: "POWDER FIRST", "Don't shoot until you see the WHI......", "You may fire when READ......" , "Got enough for hard times?" , Our fathers learned this preparedness pretty well for the most part, although mistakes were made and they had come from everywhere, at different times.

They knew when they were being screwed with.

BvT

[Recluse]

I still have Winchester primers in White sleeves. I just found out as of late that they are in Blue. I also am still reloading Winny powder out of metal cans. Everybody stacked it deep during the last scare and that's what is happening again.

Yep, bet those Winchester primers are still silver (instead of brass/gold) too. I've still got Winchester primers in the white packaging (with silver primers) and CCI primers in the small beige packets.

Just finished a can of W748 in the metal can, and have 2400, Unique, Blue Dot and W231 in metal cans.

When Slick Willie and ****** Janet Reno took office, same thing happened. I bought like crazy, and then kept my supply up.

Just not shooting as much right now--still shooting, but not quite as much as I'm used to (600-800 rounds per week).

:coffee:

[chaos]

Yep, bet those Winchester primers are still silver (instead of brass/gold) too. I've still got Winchester primers in the white packaging (with silver primers) and CCI primers in the small beige packets.

Just finished a can of W748 in the metal can, and have 2400, Unique, Blue Dot and W231 in metal cans.

When Slick Willie and ****** Janet Reno took office, same thing happened. I bought like crazy, and then kept my supply up.

Just not shooting as much right now--still shooting, but not quite as much as I'm used to (600-800 rounds per week).

:coffee:


I honestly didn't know that you could buy primers for reloading purposes that were not silver....until this year. Its been a while since I purchased any.

[waksupi]

I just heard from a member, that powder and primers are once more available in his area. I also heard one of the local sporting goods shops advertising on the radio today, they have powder, primers, and bullets back in stock.

[Mtman314]

Cabela's opened here in Billings last Thursday, they limited all to 300 primers and 2 lbs of powder (they had very little in powder). They did have bulk boxes of 22 rf shells. All bulk boxes were limited to one per person and also limits of two regular boxes of ammo per person.

[Ole]

Primers are the easiest thing to store and hoard as well. So naturally they will get hoarded the most when there is a scare like this. Basically people are no longer buying what they need for the next 6 months, they are buying a lifetime supply for them and all their friends.

[dakotashooter2]

The boss is hearing (not necessarly from the trooper friend) that there is a push to make primers have a limited shelf lifenever gonna happen. First it is just plain dangerous. Unless they can make them go from full power to dead in a very short time. It's a very good way for someone to lodge a bullet in the barrel and blow it up on the next shot. Second the manufacturers won't go for it. It is most efficient for them to make a large run of one cartridge. re-tool and do the next. Some cartridges may only get one run a year. Keeping supplies fresh would be a nightmare. Then there is the marketability. What hunter is going to want to buy ammo if he is not confident it will go bang. Some hunters can strech a box of ammo out ten or more years. They are not gonna be happy if they have to buy a new box every year. Last, what would it really accomplish unless it is accompanied by purchase restrictions?


I suspect the hoaring will slow down toward the end of summer. Face it, many/most shooters don't have the financial means to buy up 100s of thousands of rounds of ammo or supplies to load that quantity. And even if they do they likely will reach the saturation point where they determine they have enough and will quit or taper off buying, freeing those supplies for others. At that point things will start catching up with the profiteers and auction prices will fall out.

While the Dems would like to take everything in one shot the are not totally stupid. It would be political (and posisbly physical) suicide to do that. They will chip away piece by piece as they always have hoping we will be satisfied with the progressivly smaller crumbs until they are all gone.

[Big Boomer]

Over the past 15 years or so I bought extra supplies along - primers and powder -just in case such a situation as we are in should occur. A friend and I went together and purchased a gaggle of WW680 & 820 powder. All I need from time to time are a few jacketed bullets for varminting. Everything else - good old lead boolits do the job. If I can get a good lead boolit to take care of the varmints then I'll even quit buying jacketed stuff for the groundhogs and coyotes. However, I didn't take into consideration the need I might have for large rifle regular primers. Last week 1,000 of them set me back $ 40 in Springfield, O. That after the last I remember buying were $ 10 to $ 12 per thousand. That hurts my highly refined scrounging feelings! 'Tuck

[DLCTEX]

If the media can be believed at all the Mexican Drug Cartel has contributed to the shortage by arming their army of hoodlums. This is one factor I haven't heard anyone mention. Then the Mexican Army and Police have increased their ammo needs. Throw in a few other countries with insurgent problems, India, Pakistan, Sir Lanka, Congo, etc. and it is small wonder there can be a shortage.

[chris112]

I live in a real small town, we have one sporting goods store, the owner was lucky enough to get in 16,000 primers for us.... 1st guy walked in (from out of town) and said "I'll take 10K", the next guy though the doors said "I'll take the remaining 6K" :(:(:confused:

Us locals had been waiting on this too... we could all have gotten a few and been shooting. But these jokers bought every one for there stockpile. :Fire:

Stuff like that is why I am buying from stores that ration how much a person can buy at a time. If not there would not be any primers to be had except from scalpers at gun shows and there is no way that I am going to pay their prices (hope they get stuck with all their money tied up in inventory and buyers).

[cajun shooter]

I have seen people take advantage in hurricanes and sell food for thee times the price, gas for $5.00 when it was $1.25 and so on. You can call it what you like but it's pure greed!! It's feeding off your fellow man. We have shooters in our CAS clubs who no longer can shoot unless they have help. I'm down to 1500 LP and then I will be done. Being retired I loaded up a large bunch before all the crapola started and that has helped. Go to Gun Auction and see what the SHARKS are charging for primers. 3 times the purchase price. That is BS!! I'm on a disability income that would scare most everyone and no way can or will I pay this price.