The Best Handgun Caliber - A Real World Study

[Grmps]

The Best Handgun Caliber - A Real World Study

This video uses the data from Greg Ellifritz's 10-year stopping power study of real-world gunfights to shed the light of actual data on several common beliefs about handgun calibers including: 22 rifles are the best bug out guns, 45s have the best stopping power, 380s are too small to be effective, 410 guns are gimmicks, and more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nycYxb-zNwc
https://i.imgur.com/O4MYWyA.png

https://i.imgur.com/pxvBmj9.png

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Fail rate basically the same rate – regardless 14% fight through pain/damage and keep on coming
https://i.imgur.com/RlVCroF.png

https://i.imgur.com/MqIFZEy.png

Rifle & Shotgun 2 out of 3 times
https://i.imgur.com/f2Lw8Jo.png

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[Grmps]

https://i.imgur.com/zyakHwP.png

22 worst possible choice by far—fail to stop 1 in 3 attackers
https://i.imgur.com/HUiBj3J.png

45 lags behind pistol average for 1 shot stops
https://i.imgur.com/YLIMJmS.png

380 best handgun averages in lethality and 1 shot stops to the head or torso
https://i.imgur.com/8A2L1Dh.png

Stay away from the mouse calibers their failure rate is just to high
https://i.imgur.com/ZxrPy31.png

https://i.imgur.com/3KIHK9h.png

357 mag slight advantage in 1 shot stops
https://i.imgur.com/GTykyKk.png

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380 best handgun averages in lethality and 1 shot stops to the head or torso

[Grmps]

https://i.imgur.com/MX4JAHy.png

Only rifle penetrate level 3 body armor
https://i.imgur.com/vvDTBhb.png

https://i.imgur.com/xHr4MOG.png

[skeettx]

And the winner is ??????

[Bohica793]

A whole lot of numbers that say very little in the way of a definitive answer. I still say the best handgun for self defense is the one in your hand when you need it.

[LUCKYDAWG13]

We all know that the 45 acp is best

[blackthorn]

The answer primarily resides in the TRUE meaning of "Gun Control"!

[Grmps]

And the winner is ??????

According to the video and data.

380 has the best handgun averages in lethality and 1 shot stops to the head or torso

You need to watch the video for a better understanding

[KenH]

It's really hard to comprehend my little Ruger LCP is a better defensive pistol than my old .357 mag Colt Trooper. I wonder if it has anything to do with lower recoil allows better shot placement?

I really have a hard time understanding how the .380 is fatal and has more 1 shot stops than the larger calibers. BUT - this study claims to study 1700+ incidents to get the statistics.

VERY INTERESTING for sure.

[bob208]

I will make it easy if you need anything more then the power levels of a .357 mag, and by the charts that includes the .45 ,44 spl. you need a rifle.

[Hickory]

How's that saying go?
There are lies,
There **** lies,
And there are statistics

[am44mag]

This study is interesting, but does have some flaws. It's too dependent on the skill and choices of the "participants". It does not take into account the ammo chosen and used. The chances are good that at least a few of the "participants" used ammo not very well suited for self defense such as FMJ or even some weights and profiles of cast bullets in certain calibers. That can skew the results. Shot placement is another issue. You can shoot somebody in the chest and it not be a debilitating/incapacitating shot. Shot placement is important beyond just certain areas of the body. That again can skew the results. The one shot stop thing doesn't mean much to me. If I'm in a defensive shoot, I'm probably not going to take a single shot. What are the results with 2 or 3 shots to the chest?

In a perfect scenario where the right bullet is chosen and the shot placement is perfect, I do not see how something like a .380 could compare to a .357 magnum, let alone beat it. That's not a knock on the .380 as it's a good defensive cartridge, but the .357 has a lot more energy that it can dump.

[sparkyv]

Here's some more data. Observations from a morgue.
http://www.gunthorp.com/Terminal Ballistics as viewed in a morgue.htm

[xs11jack]

There are too many real world factors to figure out. Things like distance to target, the bullet, the load, where exactly in the head, the torso, and so forth. While the charts are helpful, they are not exact.
Ole Jack

[osteodoc08]

it again shows that the 45, 40, 9 are neither inferior nor superior to each other.

[MT Gianni]

Interesting but assumes all handguns are only used to kill people. That does all of us shooters a major disservice.

[Petrol & Powder]

The methodology seems a little off to me. I don't think it's false but I'd like to know more about the parameters.
Is the data from any shooting or just law enforcement and/or military shootings?
How about armed citizens in self defense or just criminals shooting each other? (I think some of those calibers may be over represented a bit)
If there was a fatality, who was the witness interviewed?
If there was an autopsy, was there also a toxicology report?
Were the fatalities in areas with level one trauma centers or in rural areas?
If the attack stopped was it by choice or was the attacker physically unable to continue the attack?

How big was the sample for each gun? I saw percentages but not raw numbers?

I'm not saying it's a bad study but I have questions.

[TXGunNut]

Very interesting and quite helpful BUT as others have noted the samples for some categories are likely too small to give accurate data. Shot placement will always be key but when using real shootings that's hard to take into consideration. Funny how the 32ACP is a hero on one chart and a poor choice on another. The effectiveness of the 32ACP has always been an enigma for me, my conclusion is that folks who pack the 32 are apparently above-average shooters. I was quite impressed with the effectiveness of the .380, I suspect the sample size was probably sufficient on that round as popular as it seems to be. One good point the charts make is that some combatants will simply continue the fight after being fatally shot because their mindset or physiology allows them to do so until their brain finally shuts down.
All in all, the charts above prove two principles of gun fighting. First, shoot until it's over. Second, keep a long gun handy and try to get it into action if possible.
Due to a data download rate reminiscent of AOL dial-up I wasn't willing to download the video so my apologies if he made those points there.

Mike

[KenH]

The methodology seems a little off to me.

While interesting read (or watch video), I kept wondering about the methodology myself. As mentioned before it's just plain hard to comprehend my little .380 being as effective as my .357 mag.

Sparkyv's link seems to fit more in line with my thinking.... but don't think I would ever have classed the .380 and 9mm together in same group.

[fast ronnie]

Here's some more data. Observations from a morgue.
http://www.gunthorp.com/Terminal Ballistics as viewed in a morgue.htm

This is a real interesting read and well worth the time spent even though it is a fairly long article.
Not that it matters, but I kind of think the same way.

[jj850]

anyone know how this is different from the Marshall and Sanow research. As I remember it was mostly police shootings with handguns. it became controversial for data analysis, selection bias and such. As I remember but that was a long time ago.

[Traffer]

This serves to remind me that scientific studies are for those who wish to manipulate data. No real practicality here. Nothing you can't figure out by shooting a few times.

[Petrol & Powder]

anyone know how this is different from the Marshall and Sanow research. As I remember it was mostly police shootings with handguns. it became controversial for data analysis, selection bias and such. As I remember but that was a long time ago.

I'm not sure it is different than the Marshall and Sanow study, in fact, it may even contain some of the same data. Hard to say based on a video clip. I'd like to see the entire study and the raw data.

[glockfan]

looking at this '''study'' , carrying my G23 makes somehow more sens to me because the 1 shot stop factor . it is conforting to know that a ''hit anywhere ''' with the 40 round might be enough to stop a motivated attacker.

i however still a believer that the best defence gun is the one you carry assuming the carrier proefficiency is part of the equation.

[bedbugbilly]

Way too many charts and figures to digest this early in the morning . . . obviously time for another cup of coffee. :-)

[Thundarstick]

I've worked in the medical field for over 35 years, and helped on a fair share of autopsies where bullet damage was the cause of death, shootings, suicides, and negligent discharges. You wouldn't believe how many are from the lowly 22LR! There's just more of them out here in the country, but they usually die at the hospital or in route. Blood loss leading to blood pressure loss is what kills, unless you get lucky and hit the CNS. Years ago there was a study done on pigs where they where shot with just about every defensive caliber and bullet of the day (early 80s) and it was concluded that even the quickest killing chest cavity shots allowed at least 7 seconds before black out. The bigger the hole, or more holes you can make(shotgun) the quicker blackout happens. It was also discovered that head shots where lights out even with the lowly 22LR and 25ACP! So it stands to reason that the larger rounds make bigger holes, fragmented rounds make more holes, that leads to faster black out. The one shot stop thing is bunk all the way around (notice they don't say, one shot kill) because it doesn't take into account the determination of the assailant, as many flee at the sight of an armed defender.
So I'm going to have to agree with the ones who say what you have in your hand, shoot well, and are proficient with is more a factor than caliber. Do I carry a 22LR? No, but if I had to use one in defence, I'm going to try my best to do a mag dump into you! Then again, I train to double tap, so your probably going to catch two no matter what I'm shooting.

Any way, I see lots of SKEWING in this whole thing. This is long, but very educational.

https://youtu.be/wXwPtP-KDNk

[KenH]

looking at this '''study'' , carrying my G23 makes somehow more sens to me because the 1 shot stop factor . it is conforting to know that a ''hit anywhere ''' with the 40 round might be enough to stop a motivated attacker.

Well, based on the "study" and the 1-shot stops in 2nd graph, it looks the .32 ACP has the best record at 72% of the time vs the 44 mag at only 53% of the time on "head/torso" One Shot Incapacitations.

3rd graph has the 1 shot hit anyway info and there the 44 mag was effective only 13% of the time compared to the little pipsqueak .380 ACP at 44%.

Now the 4th graph shows failures, and there the .32 ACP ranks high at 40% of time it fails. I have a hard time with those numbers.

Again, I ask does any of this make sense?

[Rcmaveric]

This study seams to reiterate the moot points of these debates. Any gun is better than none.

I do have some after thoughts: Didn't the FBI do a study on this? Only a hit in the central nervous system guarantees a one hit threat removal. Any other hit and your waiting on exsanguination. Bones are as hard as steel. So if your round cant punch through the bones it will deflect. Why do we not apply the same principles of hunting ammo to our self defense guns?

[rking22]

Data points on the 44mag are very few, 32 as well I believe. That somewhat invalidates the data on those 2.
What it shows ,to me anyway, is that any of the typical sd rounds,380 to 45acp, have very similar trsults in actual shootings. The 22 lr is deadly, but also likely to fail to stop, statistically. Same with the 25 and 32. All the tylicsl rounds show very similar effects and failure rates, and note, even the shotgun and rifle require more than 1 hit for a stop. Wheather it's 1.1 or 1.9 rounds you still need that 2nd hit , statistically.
I read it that you should pick a standard caliber that you can handle and will carry, there is no "silver bullet" and even the mighty 45acp and 12 ga dont always yield a stop! Relying on the One shot stop non sense to select your carry is a bad idea, and the data here supports that.
I suspect Grant Cunningham's blog has more about the actual study methodology.

[popper]

IIRC from many years ago (like 50) 22 (even 22short) was most devastating as were the 25 & 32. Of course they were the most popular concealed gun cals. It was also claimed that they 'bounced around' inside to cause major damage. At that time, drunks and crooks were the 'target'. Now with the opioid crisis, scenario changes a bit and we get the one shot stop requirement. 22, 380 & 9 are most popular now, primarily for concealment and recoil. Obviously, CNS is a stopper, bone break is a slow em down (bones are NOT made of steel). Bleed out (pain) work for perp that is going to flee (hunters know this). Actually in my LTC class, head shots were counted as a miss. We changed the 223 twist from 12-14 to 5-7 to increase the gyro energy so it would bounce around in the target more and incapacitate the enemy. IMHO we are finding that it takes multiple hits on drugged enemy - so the game changes to 458 SOCOM? The study is (I must assume) close range SD (or at least what WE are concerned about) so what you can handle and produce a 'proper' wound without over penetration ( commercial SD ammo manufacturers are concerned about this) is best. Yes, a 12 or 20 with #4 does the job but is real messy. The 'coach' scatter gun was for a very specific use, the bandits would be shooting 4-50 cal pistol from horseback at distance so would be more of a scare than threat. Cowboy movies are fun to watch but semi-ridiculous.
Yea, just read a report that 165gr 40SW is more effective then 180 gr. Actually does make sense.

[glockfan]

I've worked in the medical field for over 35 years, and helped on a fair share of autopsies where bullet damage was the cause of death, shootings, suicides, and negligent discharges. You wouldn't believe how many are from the lowly 22LR! There's just more of them out here in the country, but they usually die at the hospital or in route. Blood loss leading to blood pressure loss is what kills, unless you get lucky and hit the CNS. Years ago there was a study done on pigs where they where shot with just about every defensive caliber and bullet of the day (early 80s) and it was concluded that even the quickest killing chest cavity shots allowed at least 7 seconds before black out. The bigger the hole, or more holes you can make(shotgun) the quicker blackout happens. It was also discovered that head shots where lights out even with the lowly 22LR and 25ACP! So it stands to reason that the larger rounds make bigger holes, fragmented rounds make more holes, that leads to faster black out. The one shot stop thing is bunk all the way around (notice they don't say, one shot kill) because it doesn't take into account the determination of the assailant, as many flee at the sight of an armed defender.
So I'm going to have to agree with the ones who say what you have in your hand, shoot well, and are proficient with is more a factor than caliber. Do I carry a 22LR? No, but if I had to use one in defence, I'm going to try my best to do a mag dump into you! Then again, I train to double tap, so your probably going to catch two no matter what I'm shooting.

Any way, I see lots of SKEWING in this whole thing. This is long, but very educational.

https://youtu.be/wXwPtP-KDNk



a knife combat expert i've took some course with explained that numerous small cuts are more desirable that trying your luck with a lucky stab seeking deep penetration in whatever organs.

he explained that many small cuts drives to the same loss of blood pressure than a large deep wounds. in fact,he was keen to explain that , small cuts are easy to perform with savant arms sweeps whereas the ''lucky''' stab is likely to never happens since both belligerents are in constant motions ; that, unless one has a huge strenght advantage over his opponent, immobilizing the opponent for a deep penetration isn't going to happens.

i figure it must be appliable when talking about mouse rounds used as defence guns.

[glockfan]

Well, based on the "study" and the 1-shot stops in 2nd graph, it looks the .32 ACP has the best record at 72% of the time vs the 44 mag at only 53% of the time on "head/torso" One Shot Incapacitations.

3rd graph has the 1 shot hit anyway info and there the 44 mag was effective only 13% of the time compared to the little pipsqueak .380 ACP at 44%.

Now the 4th graph shows failures, and there the .32 ACP ranks high at 40% of time it fails. I have a hard time with those numbers.

Again, I ask does any of this make sense?

225815

sorry,was reffering to this graph....

[goste]

If the .32. has a "fail rate" of 40 %....., and a "one stop shot" of 72%, I would question if this include suicide data, which would skew results somewhat .. My .002

[shdwlkr]

curious what was the skill level of the those who used the firearm? I have always been under the impression that a bigger hole in the body tends to make the receiver less willing to want a second or third hole in the body. As has been said any pistol is better than none in the fight for your life. If the 45acp is such a **** caliber why do so many of our special forces still carry them? or have they given up on the old 45acp? One thing that is also missing is how many total shots were fired to obtain how many hits, seems I remember someplace the some LEO or FBI shoot out there were a whole lot of bullets fired with few hits. I personally would not feel under protected with any pistol if it was what I had when I needed one, not saying it would do me the best but it would at least provide me with some protection. Where solids or hollow points used, distance to target, just so many unanswered questions

[500Linebaughbuck]

hoo hum........:-|:-|:-|

i'll just stay with 44 spl or the 45acp.

[lefty o]

what i see from this "study", is pretty much what ive always said. hand guns are underpowered , and they are there to help you get to a rifle.

[RichardB]

Look up Dr. Martin Fackler. His research is the best out there. He was the prime instructor with the most accurate info at our state's LEO Firearm's Instructors Seminars

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Fackler
http://www.rkba.org/research/fackler/wrong.html
http://www.sadefensejournal.com/wp/?p=4043

RichardB

[FISH4BUGS]

SHOT PLACEMENT....the only thing that matters

[Traffer]

a knife combat expert i've took some course with explained that numerous small cuts are more desirable that trying your luck with a lucky stab seeking deep penetration in whatever organs.

he explained that many small cuts drives to the same loss of blood pressure than a large deep wounds. in fact,he was keen to explain that , small cuts are easy to perform with savant arms sweeps whereas the ''lucky''' stab is likely to never happens since both belligerents are in constant motions ; that, unless one has a huge strenght advantage over his opponent, immobilizing the opponent for a deep penetration isn't going to happens.

i figure it must be appliable when talking about mouse rounds used as defence guns.

I found this to be more useful info than the entire study in the original post.

[popper]

:goodpost: He sort of discounts the tumbling of the M16 bullet in the body, calling it fragmentation. Not exactly the same. The fast twist/HV provides a lot of rotational energy that causes gyro procession ( change in bullet direction AND orientation - which creates an amazing wound channel (long for caliber). IMHO the article is pretty good, Only a shotgun is VERY reliable, the rest are about the same but bigger usually means more PAIN so the shooter and shot physio are to be considered.

[Plate plinker]

SHOT PLACEMENT....the only thing that matters

This^^^^^**

[DCM]

The answer primarily resides in the TRUE meaning of "Gun Control"!

This!

A person needs to control Their gun and hit what they are aiming at. Just like hunting well placed shots matter more than all other factors.
Good info here https://www.ballisticstudies.com/Knowledgebase/Effective+Game+Killing.html

[Lloyd Smale]

I could shoot 5 deer right in the heart with a 22lr and have them drop dead. I could then hit 4 with an o6 in the heart and have them run a 100 yards after the hit. I could then claim to shoot 5 deer in the chest with either and some will hit the lungs some the heart with totally different outcomes. Does that make the 22lr equal to the 06? Way to many variables to put numbers on things. I know that I would sure feel better armed with an 06 and sure would feel better about my chances in a gun fight with a 44mag shooting 180 xtps then a 357 shooting xtps and feel better about both when compared to a 380 or even a 40,9 or 45acp. If a 44mag is a better killer of deer, bear, pigs, elk, moose ect why would I think a human is one bit different. Never found a smaller gun to do better at killing then a bigger one ever. Not over the long haul anyway. I kind of relate it to roy weatherby. He went out right after he designed the 257 (which by the way is one of my favorites) and killed about every game animal on earth and claimed it was the end all of rifle rounds. Well later on he found out that some of those kills were more luck then a strike of lightning. those adds of his killing of cape buffalo ect with the 257 disappeared real fast out of the magazines. I personaly pray that if im ever attacked by a bad guy he believes in some of those numbers and is carrying a 380 or 32acp and it just happens to be a day im on my way to camp with a DA 44 mag on my hip.

[skeeter2]

This is not a study. Its just a bunch of data.

[Der Gebirgsjager]

To me, the Marshall and Sanow books and testing methodology are the gold standard in this area. True, they concentrated on handgun cartridges, but their study in that area involved many more incidents. Their successive books were made necessary by changing bullet design/technology resulting in different calibers and specific loadings giving improved performance. Probably the most notable evolution that I noticed is in the 9mm Luger, once argued to be inferior to the .45 ACP in stopping power, and now seemingly its equal. But none of these studies, including the one posted here by grmps (thanks for posting it -- a good read) can be ultimately conclusive. Are we talking about a .380 Auto loaded with a Gold Dot or a 9mm loaded with FMJ. The picture changes if the bullets are reversed. Shot from a handgun, or a carbine with a longer barrel? Other factors that are impossible to figure in ahead of time like clothing, temperature, barricades, etc. also make things unpredictable outside the testing facility. One can assume that lab and range test results that proved superior in those environments will stand a better chance of a one-shot stop, but there are no guarantees. The Marshall and Sanow books just started getting into shotgun and rifle data a little bit, but the study that is the subject of this post advances that knowledge somewhat.

To me, some takeaways are:

Better to have a gun than none.
Better not to get shot at all. It's gonna hurt.
Getting shot in the head is never good. With anything.
The military's general issue is a rifle, instead of a handgun, for good reasons.

Trite generalities, it's true.

[Thundarstick]

Reminds me of the reporter asking the sheriff if he was expecting trouble, seeing he was carrying that 45 auto. He replied, why heck no! If I where expecting trouble I'd have brought a long gun!

[RED BEAR]

I have to believe that where you shoot is more important than what you shoot. I have always believed you cannot compensate for poor accuracy with caliber. The wife and i hit the range at least once a week. And while practicing for good groups is ok it wount do much good if you have to use your gun for self-defense. We both practice instinctive shooting. They aren't the best groups but they are all in head and center chest and pretty quick at that. A simple rule i heard a long time ago that made a lot of since shoot first and dount stop shooting until you hit something they can't do without.

[Lloyd Smale]

that's all any of these tests and studys are. Until someone lines up 500 humans and shoots them with various guns its all just numbers. Every animal and human react different to being shot. Heck id bet if there was a way to prove it the same human or animal would react different to the same shot tomorrow as they did today. What we can determine from all of this bs is how ballistic gelatin reacts to different bullets. Ive shot hundreds of deer in my life. Id bet if I could go back to each shooting and measure how far a deer went after every shot and then took every example for each caliber and charted them there wouldn't be 20 yards of difference I how far deer ran comparing a 243 to a 300 win mag.
This is not a study. Its just a bunch of data.

[dverna]

Getting shot with anything can make for a bad day...or the last day.

Within reason, my little pea brain tells me more energy is always better...all things being equal (ie bullet design)

You still need to be able to control recoil and shoot accurately.

Having more rounds is a good thing. If you can put them on target.

In my case, the "perfect" handgun is a 9mm Glock because I shoot it well. Normally carry Gold Dots. I wish I could control a .44 Mag but I cannot and even the .40 is a bit "snappy". So I use the "inferior" 9mm and practice more than most. HD is 12 ga and .223 if I have time to get to them.

[Der Gebirgsjager]

There just isn't much inferior about a 9mm Gold Dot, or a Glock either. Both good choices!

[Hickory]

You need to know how this data is used and deciphered.
I'll use the 380 for example. It is logical to assume that more people carry a 380 in America than a 44 mag or 45 acp, so it would stand to reason that the 380 would be more effective than other calibers only because more people carry and use a 380 for self-defence.
Not that the 380 is better or superior to larger calibers, but, because more people are shot and killed each year with the 380.

In other words, if 1.5 million people carry a 380 for protection and 2000 people carry a 45 acp and as a whole, they have to shoot and kill around 5000 bad guys out of self-defence, which gun or caliber will be used the most?

These figures are shewed in their presentation and analysis.

[blackthorn]

Just a couple of comments: With respect to the "shoot and keep shooting until the target is down"---I grew up on a farm and I hunted animals from age 10 onward. My buddies all had repeater .22's as opposed to the old single shot (held together with stove-pipe wire) with no extractor/ejector I used. Because they had multiple shots available, when a rabbit took off, they fired at it until it dropped or got away. Now, since I had to flip the fired round out with my jackknife, I just had to wait until the rabbit stopped and then I had to make my only shot count. At the end of a day's hunt I usually had very close to the same amount of rabbits as they did. Recently I hunted with some folks (a family) that hunt Moose like my early buddies hunted rabbits, and while they got Moose, there were usually 3 or 4 holes in it, (not always in the best areas for maximizing the amount of edible meat). About 95% of the Moose I have shot have been one-shot kills and I attribute that to my early "training". God forbid I ever have to use a gun of any kind to defend my family or self against a human but if I do I hope I have the self control to make a one-shot kill.

[JBinMN]

Interesting reading here.

Also, Thanks! to the ones who have shared further reading on the topic/subject!

[RED BEAR]

Being able to hit what you are aiming at with a 22 single shot is not even in the same universe as having to fire in self defense. In a self defence situation almost all will resort to point and fire. Even trained people don't all ways react as they were trained to do. Not only do they not always react as they were trained if they haven't recieved extensive training most will not react as trained. I can't remember the the exact time i think it was 3 seconds is the most time you will have to react in a defensive situation. Thats why i say fire first and don't stop until you hit something they can't do without. If you deciede you have to fire then the rest is instinctive. Thats why i practice from 7 to 25 yards rapid fire. I practice that way because thats how you will shoot in an extreme situation. I really hope that you have the self control to aim and fire but remember that the vast majority of people do not. I would like to think that i would to but i doubt i would. I watched a video of a police officer lose his life because he never reloaded just kept pull the trigger on a empty pistol when there were several magazines on his belt.

[pworley1]

+1 on what Fish4bugs said.

Where your shot hits is far more important than what you shoot.

[robg]

A hit with a 22 is worth 10 misses with a magnum.

[chuckbuster]

Invalid Study and inaccurate Thread Title
.41 Mag not even mentioned that I see.

(Yeah I’m one of those loons)
Kevin

[RED BEAR]

Chuckbuster funny you mentioned not seeing a 41 mag because thats what i carry most of the time. Great gun.