Total US Firearms: Not 300 Million, but 412-660 Million?

[Phineas Bluster]

Deleted

[WebMonkey]

is that just the handguns with more than 10 round magazines in Chicago?

[PerpetualStudent]

That's a very interesting article.

Most of the "estimates" bandied about stink for various reasons but this approach is novel to me and passes my sniff test. Going have to re-read and chase down some extra info.

Thanks.

[Harter66]

That's a lot of guns . You'd think there would be more trouble if they really were a problem wouldn't you.

[M-Tecs]

In the 70's the claim was 300 million. Since than a lot more have been manufactured.

[Harter66]

There's an expression in classic cars .
You know what you can get for a 57 Chevy now that you couldn't when it was brand new ? .....
Financing.

Lots of the popular old guns are the same . 92s,94s , Mausers and 1911s come to mind .
Also guns generally don't get used up and disposed , they aren't a bench stock item sure a few get destroyed , Elmer did nice work , but overall Id bet the rebar conversion is nil to the production .

[Kestrel4k]

Interesting article, there is much I didn't know in it.

When I have time I could go through my collection to determine my proportion of A2K-entered firearms vs the pre-1999 firearms but my guess is ~50% of my total.
So by that reasoning, my WAG would be 2x 300M = 600M.

[Harry O]

I have often wondered the same thing. The number of guns was estimated to be 250 million when I was a teenager (during the debates concerning the 1968GCA). I am retired now and I know for certain that more than 50 million has been added in the last 50 years.

[PerpetualStudent]

1994 was the big NIJ study that estimated 192 million. If Hognose's numbers are right, between 1999 and 2016 we added 329 million. All told, with no attrition or exports, that puts a SWAG at 500 million, which is in the neighborhood of Kestrel's WAG.

My WAG is right around that number, I'd guess 600M - 10% attrition and have a conservative 540M

[Tackleberry41]

I was reading an article on 'estimates' of the number of AR15s in the US. The #s were based on sales numbers of the major manufacturers. Ok what about all the smaller companies? And certainly wouldn't include the pile of 80% ones. All they can do is estimate. I was talking to a more liberal high school friend on Facebook, he had posted something about a ban. He has no concept of whats out there and how pointless any sort of ban would be. What happened to all those AK parts kits, Fal kits, CETME kits, Browning 1919 kits, etc, etc, etc? We all know someone who has a pile of guns. And we have those occasional news article of somebody who dies, and the family discovers hundreds of guns just stacked in closets and sheds.

600 mil might be conservative.

[2wheelDuke]

There's probably been 300 million sold just since Obama was elected.

[Tackleberry41]

An interesting gun statistic is that it seems a whole 3% of Americans own half the guns in circulation. 'Super gun owners' as they are known have between 8 and 117 guns ea. So some us arent pulling our weight at 8. Others might should slow down so the rest of us can catch up.

[dragon813gt]

An interesting gun statistic is that it seems a whole 3% of Americans own half the guns in circulation. 'Super gun owners' as they are known have between 8 and 117 guns ea. So some us arent pulling our weight at 8. Others might should slow down so the rest of us can catch up.

The numbers in that study did not add up. If they can't get basic math right why should I believe anything else they say?

[Bookworm]

This is the entire reason for "universal background checks", and "all transfers through an FFL".
Before they can come get the guns they have to know how many and where they are.

[PerpetualStudent]

I haven't actually seen the study that is from. They released it to the press before the damn thing even finished passing peer review (which is unethical in my view). What info I could find out is they used internet focus groups to get that data.

Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of super owners, we've always known that. But how many guns they own is not settled in my view. Also I imagine that guys with a couple dozen guns are more likely to honestly answer "yes I'm a gun owner" because they know that some of them are associated with their name. While if you only own 1 or 3, you might be more likely to keep that to yourself.

[Tackleberry41]

Considering the estimates vary so widely, it would be difficult to expect any math to actually work out. But its not hard to believe there are alot of 'super owners' out there. Of the people I know, they either have no guns or more than a few, with nobody in the middle owning 1 or 2.

[RogerDat]

I heard an interesting term I think is going to be a new "buzz word" used to change the discussion. Super Gun Owners. The term refers to gun owners with 17 or more firearms. The premise is that a few people own most of the guns. Implication is that this small percentage is driving the whole "gun problem".

First thing I thought of was most people with 17 guns have a gun safe which helps keep others from using their guns in crime. And themselves tend to not be perpetrators of gun crime. San Bernadio and Pulse night club I think the only had a couple of guns. Sandy Hook the killer stole one from his Mother. Columbine they had between 2 and 4 and the pistol(s) were straw purchases.

Like "Assault Weapon" changes the discussion (and was intentionally done) this term tends to put the discussion of 2nd amendment into an undesirable place. A small "fringe" group is driving gun ownership and by implication resisting reasonable restrictions. It came out of a privately funded study and was part of a story about how the government can't do public health studies on guns. Look for the law that prevents this to be under attack.

Watch for it coming to a news story near you.

[Mica_Hiebert]

I have herd the statement at least 5 separate occasions since "O"s been in office, at a gun counter some one will ask "what do you recommend for a first gun?" gun counter guy will usually ask in return, "what do you plan on using it for? plinking, target competition, or hunting?" and they will usually reply "Oh... I dont know, I really haven't thought about ever owning a gun but I just want to buy one before the govt. bans the sale of them.


On a totally unrelated subject, the gun counter guy usually recommends a 22 and a lot of these people actually started using these guns and is a contributing factor as to why 22 ammo has been so scarce.


Most of the numbers are based on nics checks and dont even account for all the people who use a concealed carry permit to purchase without a nics check. I wouldnt even want to guess how many guns are in the united states but I do bet that more than 3% of the population now owns firearms. I would venture to guess a majority of republican voters own guns, a majority of libertarians own guns and I know a few democrats who own guns so I would venture to guess 25% of the population probably now has at least 1 gun in their household.

[matrixcs]

Even the 600 million may be low. How many 80% firearms have been manufactured, I suspect many millions of uncounted firearms exist....

[mold maker]

Since there are only very scratchy records of sales and all the alternate acquisitions, it's all a SWAG at best. Any number picked is as inaccurate as any other.
If I were to bet on it, I'd say all the estimates are under reality.
Guns, unlike cars or clothes, have no "usual" lifetime. They don't go out of style or become old junk just because of age. Very few are ever worn out or scrapped, and even those are reused as parts to repair the rest.
In the USA many owners won't let it be known, because of the political implications. Many of them are among the 17+ owners.
At this point, it would be physically impossible to get anything like an accurate count of owners, let alone guns.
Our founding Fathers planned it that way.

[rondog]

My wife would tell ya that I have a couple million myself.....

[Harter66]

Just rolling numbers .
300 million people , so 3% is 9 million .
If 15 were a good number of guns per owner that's 135 million guns . But if we presume that is a household possession and the mind set is one of the old school it all changes and a huge portion of the super owners goes away .
As late as the early 80s it was suggested that a sportsman of all seasons should have a 12 ga , an 06' class rifle , a 22 rifle as similar to the high power as possible and a side arm . That would allow plenty of cheap practice , personal protection and a finish shot on big game as well as everything in North America in every jurisdiction . Let's say the guy has a set for himself ,his spouse and 3 kids . Now you have 16-20 guns but only 3 percapita plus 2 22 rifles and maybe 2 22 pistols . The super owner is now just a regular Joe x 5. Now at some point the serviceable 30-30 will get a rifle added better suited to elk or moose or the guy that has tooled for elk or moose will get a 30-30. Add a trap or goose gun , maybe after a "runner" in the woods the 357 just didn't feel like enough gun . God forbid Cowboy action or 3 gun should become a side line . Now there is a household possession into Super Super owner , but really it's 5 folks that fill the All Around Sportsman roll with a better suited for the possible roll gun than the generic place holder added .
I don't think I know anybody that only owns A bedroom gun . Rifle owners tend to have a 22 , 22-250 and an 06' (generically) . Shotgun owners tend to have a dove/trap/skeet gun and a duck gun (generically) . Bed room gun owners tend to have the business gun and a more comfortable practice gun unless they happen to be comfortable with the bedroom gun as a regular shooter too.
Very few owners today would buy a Winchester model 60,70,12 and S&W 10 and be done . Kids leave their guns at home often and buy a couple more before they pick up their guns maybe for their own kids . It's funny how it runs .
These Super owners are probably just part of a household which means that there are 3.8 people x 9 million households x 7 guns . 239,400,000 . That accounts for 34 million owners and still leaves 116 million regular owners , presuming they only own 3 each and half the population have none and none in the household. That provides an additional 348 million guns . That brings us to 587.4 million guns without the collectors that have a Winchester 94 in every cartridge of each generation or a Mauser of every crest 1881- 1945 . We also know there are Singer 1911s and that M1 Garand prototype 000007 some place .

[RogerDat]

I think the whole thing of super users is getting raised to be used to justify "research" into the "public health" aspects of firearms. Did anyone else notice how that worked out for tobacco products? And states won't ban tobacco products because they passed a whole lot of sin taxes around them. And politicians know that unlike some taxes smokers will pay the increase and are just under 25% of the population so as a minority can't get the votes to vote down excessive taxes on them. The high taxation is one route with the difference being firearms are not physically addictive so folks will be less inclined to pay any firearm "sin" tax.

A whole lot of the anti crowd would consider the inability to accurately track all firearms as "the" problem. Where I suspect many here consider not tracking all firearms keeps them from having to dig as many holes in the back yard for "lost" firearms that fell out of the boat. Deepest part of the lake, where the current is strong, and in the middle of a storm, it was no doubt a heart breaking experience.

There is legislation in about 6 states to require background checks for all transfers, and then Calif. with it's background check for ammo purchases on some ballot. Good grief, one of the best arguments for abortion are to prevent stupid people from breeding so many politicians and idiot voters.

[Freightman]

If we could get all gun owners to vote as a block no political person would dare sày a word about the guns, they like there plush jobs.

[NyFirefighter357]

I have worked these numbers out myself with in the last year and come up with about the same. The anti's love pointing to polls that gun ownership is at an all time low. What the polls don't account for is who the heck is telling some stranger who calls your house about gun ownership the truth? It makes me laugh every time I here a news report on how gun ownership in this country is at "an all time low" while within two minutes they report that nics checks have been at record levels month, after month after month. I also believe that 25-33% of the population own guns.

[Tackleberry41]

Alot of us are basing assumptions on ourselves. Its a gun forum, tend to be conservative, and really only tend to be around similar. So from that perspective, just about everybody owns guns. Even being conservative does not mean anything, my mom is a solid republican voter, yet no guns in the house. If you knew any actual liberals, not the ones accused of it for simply not being as pious, would find theres alot of people that dont own guns. So 30% of US citizens being gun owners is probably really close. 'Super owners' is something they made up, some will say as part of some liberal plot, or they simply had to think of something to differentiate the casual owner from those who own more. Yes a decent percentage of what ever number is true are semi autos. Fact is there is a pile of 'junk' in private hands. Those old single shots that collect dust in a closet, ancient 22s, low end stuff, etc. How many hi points and lorcins have been sold in the last couple decades? I have known 'gun owners' who pull out their collection, and its all junk. And yes there are the collectors, who have 15 NIB 40 yo revolvers. You can almost hear them scream 'oh its ruined you fired it'. Or those who own 10 Mosin nagants.

They will never get anything more than estimates. I know if they called me asking such questions, I would ask 'whats a gun'? Even my mom asks 'more than 1, less than a 100'. So am I casual owner or a super owner?

[Petrol & Powder]

Without getting too far into this, I think the numbers are a bit difficult to nail down but I don't think 600 million + is plausible.
The 300 million figure is likely a bit on the low side but 600 million is difficult to defend. We don't have solid numbers of guns made or imported prior to the 1968 GCA but we have some idea of production numbers from major manufacturers during some of that time. If you take known production numbers of a few American manufacturers and look at the U.S. population during that time you can get some idea of the demand for guns during that time frame. It's not an absolute by any means but it sheds some light on the trend over the years.

That article is a little fuzzy on what they are actually counting. Manufactures and importers provide a pretty good baseline but then they add Wholesalers to the mix and I think that's where they may be double counting. If you count the guns made or imported, you don't need to count them again when they pass through a wholesaler. Guns are durable products and they get re-sold over the life of the gun. Sometimes they get resold many times over long spans of time. That article seems to imply they are counting guns made, imported and transferred. They go on to base their calculations on that combined number.

From the article:
".....ATF maintains a system, introduced in 1999, called Access 2000 or A2K (GAO report; details are in the .pdfs linked at that .html link). This system allows voluntarily participating manufacturers, importers and wholesalers (no retailers) to enter their firearms by the identifying data that goes on a 4473 directly into an ATF computer...."

There are roughly 323 million people in the U.S. and many of those individuals have no firearms and some individuals have multiple firearms. Even the so called "super owners" will not push the ownership rate to 600 million unless you assume an incredible number of "super owners" exist and there's no evidence of that.

The nation's population is not evenly distributed. So while there may be a large number of firearms in some urban area like New York city, the VAST majority of those 8 million people do not own firearms. Rural areas have much higher rates of firearm ownership but the total population is far less than the urban areas. So while there is probably a very high rate of gun ownership in Wyoming, the total population of the entire state is only about 586,000 people. Now those are extremes, Wyoming has the lowest population density and New York city is very densely populated, but the point is you can't just take the total estimated number of guns and spread them out over the entire population.

[RogerDat]

How do you count the guns that gang members have stashed under a rock in an alley or in the rotted wall of a nearby abandoned building? I think it was NPR or a documentary and in a section on guns talking to high school students in Chicago the vast majority not only knew many that owned guns, all had similar price estimates and better understanding of guns in general than the average person. Revolvers are around $25 semi-autos around $50 except for some premium pieces such as certain Glocks or some really nice revolvers like the Dirty Harry 44 magnum, a Bulldog, etc. Those premium firearms commanded prices as high as $100 with some commenting it was stupid to carry a "showy" piece because then it gets remembered and talked about. Word is more likely to get back to police and if they are looking for a robbery suspect with a.... and you are rumored to have one? You will be getting a visit.

I also agree that we are basing many of our assumptions on those we know, and most of us know more gun owners than the average person. The distribution of population is also clearly a factor. I don't know if Rural Michigan has more guns than Urban Michigan. I would guess that more rural folks have multiple different firearms either from collecting or varied hunting needs. urban are more likely to own one or two. Note more likely is a broad term, probably plenty of exceptions. I know hunters that live in the city and own multiple firearms. What I am pretty sure of is both urban and rural people are unlikely to tell someone they don't know about how many guns they have. What is a gun? Why would I have one, like what is it used for? Sorry I couldn't help you have a nice day now. I gotta go my lead is starting to over heat. :mrgreen: