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rancher1913
10-15-2016, 10:37 AM
I know there are several members that have cows and was wondering what your take on the calf market is, will there be a January spike or are we in a losing battle this year.

around here the price for a 5 weight is about a buck a pound, that's about a 3rd of what they were selling for a few years ago and well below the break-even for most ranchers, me included. I had hopped to hold back some heifers this year but may need to sell everything just to cover feed expenses this year. one neighbor said he was down a hundred grand over last year and doesn't know if he can hold on. it looks like a blood bath around here and it sure ain't a fun time to be a rancher.

calves sure look good, had good grass this year. most business that cater to ranchers around here are starting to hurt, the protein tub supplier I usually spend a couple a thousand dollars with will probably be lucky to get a couple of hundred from me. wonder if the old adage of "as ag goes so goes the economy" will hold true this year.

dtknowles
10-15-2016, 11:50 AM
I can't provide any advice but it seems we are in down swing in prices at a time of growth. Too much production and not enough consumers across the board. Even the floods, droughts and disease can't seem to stifle production.

Tim

jonp
10-15-2016, 12:10 PM
I get a farming update on the all the ag markets most every day although I don't have a farm or keep livestock. I just find it interesting. Live cattle are showing a slight uptick. If you combine the website news with the futures market you can get an idea of the direction but I'm sure no expert in trading let alone any ag market futures.

http://www.agriculture.com/?did=84475

MT Gianni
10-15-2016, 12:52 PM
Most of my neighbors contracted in May or June. I believe the corn producers have backed off production some but are no longer driving the market rise that was there the last couple of years.

Gofaaast
10-15-2016, 01:46 PM
Wait to sell till after the first big snow storm that comes through the plains and rallies prices some. You have to hope and pray the storm does not affect you though. Huge supply of bawlers right now and corn is inching back up, not good news for the calf market. High prices cured high prices now the pendulum has swung the other way and low prices will cure low prices.

Alstep
10-15-2016, 02:05 PM
Talked to my neighbor a few days ago, milk prices are down to $14 a hundred. A while back he sold some calves and the dealer sent him a bill to haul them away. The only saving grace for him is, he was smart enough to start a cheese plant some years ago. So instead of shipping milk at a loss, he makes cheese at 4 times the price for a profit. l don't know how a dairy farmer stays in business these days. Even some creameries are shutting down.

tja6435
10-15-2016, 02:44 PM
What about offering direct sales from farm to consumer? That'd allow more room for profit on your end, but a lot more work dealing with butchering.

dtknowles
10-15-2016, 04:41 PM
What about offering direct sales from farm to consumer? That'd allow more room for profit on your end, but a lot more work dealing with butchering.

I thought that people were doing that already. We used to go in halves on a steer and buy raw milk at the farm and hundreds of pounds of potatoes and dried beans.

Tim

Beagle333
10-15-2016, 05:50 PM
I know that I keep wishing that I had a couple of cows, every time I go to the market, and I'm kinda tired of chicken all the time. I would think that a few cows wandering around the property might not be such a bad thing. Haven't had any cattle in a little over 30 years. It might also be fun.

Ole Joe Clarke
10-15-2016, 07:01 PM
From the other side of the problem, (and I understand your problem and hate that it is happening to farmers and ranchers), when I go shopping for groceries I can't afford 8-10 bucks a pound for a rib eye. I haven't purchased them in 4 or 5 years. I buy the marked down stew meat or 80/20 hamburger because it is about 30% cheaper. We buy mostly chicken and pork chops on occasion.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining. We are certainly blessed.

Leon

William Yanda
10-15-2016, 07:33 PM
Here in western NY, there are fewer dairy farmers, but about the same number of dairy cows. Several large 200-300 cow dairys instead of dozens of 40-60 cow dairies. There is no practical way for them to handle direct sales.

rancher1913
10-15-2016, 09:45 PM
we are to far out from a large city to do the direct sale thing and the usda red tape to get started takes a lot of cash up front, we do keep and finish a few, mostly for our own use. the fact that you guys are paying 8 - 10 bucks a pound and the rancher is getting 1 dollar of that shows where all the money is in the beef business. was more curious to hear what some others are trying to do to get through the tough times.

MaryB
10-15-2016, 10:43 PM
My beef supplier does direct to the consumer. She partnered with a local butcher so the USDA end is covered. She keeps a file of who orders what so all I do is drop her an email an say "get me on the list". They drop the cattle at the butchers along with the cutting instructions for each one. Butcher calls her when it is ready and she picks up deliveries for 5-6 people and delivers to the front door. No real middle man, butcher charges the same fee as if I brought it in to be cut up. Think my cost this year was $3.49 a pound. My quarter was 165 pounds hanging weight, processing was $117.10, she got $2.54 a pound. They feed grass so little overhead costs.

MaryB
10-15-2016, 10:46 PM
I am 90 miles from the nearest town over 75,000, population density out where i live is about 13 people per square mile. Rancher I buy beef from delivers all over including to some Twin Cities restaurants 140 miles from their ranch. They have a waiting list to buy beef and a customer has to drop off the list before they can add a new one. They do a very good business and deliver to my front door. They partnered with a local butcher to cover the USDA end of things.



we are to far out from a large city to do the direct sale thing and the usda red tape to get started takes a lot of cash up front, we do keep and finish a few, mostly for our own use. the fact that you guys are paying 8 - 10 bucks a pound and the rancher is getting 1 dollar of that shows where all the money is in the beef business. was more curious to hear what some others are trying to do to get through the tough times.

bayjoe
10-15-2016, 10:48 PM
Up to 2 weeks ago not many calves moving. La Junta had a few out of New Mexico. So with the grass holding out and not much moving off the mountain right now, it looks like most of the calves moving to the markets are holding off. When they do move it will be all at once, and you know what happens then.
I haven't kept up on the video auctions. That might be an option, to talk to a Superior rep and see when the bulk of calves are moving.
In your area a lot depends on what the wheat is doing in Kan/Neb/OK.
You've got a tough decision to make. Good Luck

Just an after thought but with the down turn, you might want to consider the organic (grass fed/no antibiotics) It is a nich market but can be very lucrative
Double J up at Pierce butcher organic beef and they might put you in touch with the organic meat buyers.

jcwit
10-15-2016, 10:48 PM
Guess it depends somewhat on where you live. Here is this weeks add where Wife & I shop for beef.

Prices are effective from: Monday, OCT10 through Sunday, OCT 16TH





WHOLE NEW YORK STRIP LOINS
$2.89LB
12LB AV
PRIME RIB WHOLE BONELESS
rib eyes
$3.99 lb 15LB AVG
WHOLE BEEF
short loins
$4.50 lb
t-bone- porter
SHAVED HAM
$1.79LB


WHOLE TOP SIRLOIN
$2.99 lb
10-15 lb avg.
WHOLE BEEF
TENDERLOIN
$8.99LB
WHOLE PORK BUTT.99Lb
PORK SHOULDERS .95LB
BONELESS CHICKEN BREAST
10lb-$14.90
40lb-$51.99


SPLIT CHICKEN BREAST
10 LB $11.90
40 LB $39.99
PEPSI LITERS 5/$5.00
+DEP
WHOLE BONELESS PORK LOINS
$1.59LB
RUSSET POTATOES
8LB BAG$1.25
5/$5.99



WHOLE BEEF BRISKET 12LB AVG
$2.99 LB
TILAPIA FILLETS 5LB $12.25
10LB BOX $19.99
CENTER CUT PORK CHOPS
10 LB $19.90
PREMIUM TRIM
PORK STEAK
10lbs $13.90


POLLOCK FILLETS
10LB BOX
$15.90
PREMIUM #1
SLICED BACON
10 LBS $25.90
30 lb box $68.99
EZ PEEL 31/40 CT SHRIMP
1LB $4.75
FIRST CUT PORK CHOPS 10LB $9.90




BONELESS BEEF CHUCK ROAST
10LB $35.90

WHOLE BONE IN

PORK LOINS $1.25 LB

LOWERYS OWN FRESH MADE BRATS
10 LB $25.90
CENTRELLA WATER
24PK $1.99



BAR-S-HOTDOGS 10LB $8.90


100%
PURE BEEF
hamburger patties
5 lbs $12.95
BONELESS BEEF RUMP ROAST
10LB $29.90
WHOLE BONE IN
TURKEY BREAST
$1.69LB


CAT FISH NUGGETS 5LB $9.99
15LB BOX $23.90
RED POTATOES 50LB $9.99
SMALL CHICKEN WINGS 10LB $16.90
40 LB BOX $67.50
EGGS .25 DOZEN
10/$1.90



100% BEEF HAMBURGER
PREMIUM EXTRA LEAN
GROUND FRESH
10LBS $23.90
P&D RAW SHRIMP 31/40 $12.99 2LB BAG
CHICKEN DRUMSTICKS 10LB $ 5.90
40LB BOX $22.99
BEEF RANCH STEAK 10 LB $27.90


JUMBO CHICKEN WINGS 10LB $21.90
40LB BOX $79.99
COUNTRY STYLE PORK RIBS
10LB$14.90
Cooked SHRIMP
31/40 $6.99LB
SALMON FILLETS
2LB BAG $8.99

FRESH CHICKEN LEG 1/4S 10LB$490
40LB BOX$18.99


SMALL PORK SPARE RIBS
$1.99LB BOX
$1.89LB
PREMIUM BEEF GROUND SIRLOIN
10 LB $29.90
BABY BACK
PORK RIBS
$2..59 LB
BOX $2.49 LB

CATFISH FILLETS 5LB $ 22.90
15LB $56.99


BONELESS BEEF ARM ROAST
10LB$ 24.90













PORK RIB TIPS 10LB BOX $11.90













POTATOES
50LB BAG $7.90














TURKEY NECKS
OR WINGS DRUMS
10LB $7.90



















This is where they are from, and yes it is quality!

http://lowerysmeatandgrocery.com/

rancher1913
10-16-2016, 09:40 AM
thanks bayjoe, that was more along the lines that I wanted to know. we already do the all natural, preconditioned thing and that helps us.

would love to do the direct sales mary but we do not have the resources to house and feed the calves for another year and a half and the few ranchers that have tried it around here spend a lot of time sitting on the beef because the buyer backed out at the last minute or trying to collect money. there are a lot of options to increase our revenue but unfortunately they all take a lot of money and resources that we just don't have.

thanks for the reply's but would really like to hear from some of the producers that I know are on here either big or small and what their take on the future holds.

Three44s
10-16-2016, 09:48 AM
rancher1913,

Yes, this hurts!

We sold our yearlings last summer and I thought that was pretty bad but it turns out we did very good by current standards. (mid- July and mid- August)

We used to sell direct to the feed lots but the size and scale thing caught us up, it's hard to get buyers for mid sized bunches and our local auction yard is one of the few survivors of that debacle so for the first time in decades we bring our yearling cattle to the auction.

The other difference is that we are in communication around our traditional selling times and they advertise a "feeder sale" every so often so those buyers know when to get there ...... it makes a huge difference in buyer pressure to have twice as many buyers at a sale than not have them.

If I need sales at a different time than one of those sales, I have to take my lumps but fit the volume to the need and sell some "scraps" so to speak to get me to the "big event".

I'd rather get beat up on a few sort outs rather than some choice animals until I can get to the time when the buyers really show up.

You rather shocked me when I looked at what the market had done lately ........ WOW!

I do have a few cattle to sell even now and this sure blind sided me.

As far as retaining some heifers ....... you know the saying: Buy low and sell high!

I realize that is not much comfort in trying to balance expenses but it's a fact. I hate to make predictions, I am no guru but common sense tells us that while this is not the "low to end all" it is certainly in the running. It makes a lot more sense to sell those heifer calves on the 3.00 highs or yearlings at their highs of 2.20 two years ago and replace their moms with cattle in the .90's than the other way around.

And the other thing is that everybody is getting older .......... these are just facts.

Banks are just inclined to want to loan money to cattle people on highs to buy outrageously priced cows and then tell them to sell them when the bottom drops out and that is one of the most destructive thing they could do to their customers!

I want to say that there might be a little price up tick in this thing going out a month or 6-7 weeks but it will not be a ground shattering experience. Right now we've likely got some producers stuck in the doorway trying to beat an even lower price expectation and you may profit some a bit of wait and see as cooler heads prevail?

You look at historical cattle pricing and it's a see saw over a season. There should be a mild swing back up, a correction if you will but the general low situation is most likely baked in the cake as they say!

On the protein tubs, I was in a position to need to include some a while back but I was also talking to our extension agent who runs cows and has a nutrition back ground and he suggested just adding prime alfalfa hay ......... I think we were about 6# per cow out it turned out.

If you price those tubs .......... I think you get to around 700 bucks per ton at a 36% level and even then alfalfa at say 20% was 200 bucks. It was during winter feeding and we were dishing out cull apples then with poorer feeder hay so we were out with feeding equipment anyway but even a special trip with that small an amount of prime alfalfa by itself pays for a lot of fuel when you look at what the convience is costing you.

Today small bales are running at 150 a ton tops if you shop around. If you have enough cattle, big bales of prime alfalfa is much less than that or you could break one and dedicate a truck to that and feed off some of it each day, harder to meter it out though.



Best regards

Three 44s

Three44s
10-16-2016, 10:14 AM
rancher1913,

I did not go for the organic cattle thing but I have been doing the natural bit, I have given it about 6-7 years to turn into something I could really feel like it was paying off.

I guess my ship came in last summer about the time I was ready to bag the whole business!

I had one set last August get run up to $146.00 ...... it was ten head of steers in the mid 700#'s. We usually get about 2-3 cents added and sometimes it makes no difference if the right buyers are not there. Other bunches of heifers got priced right up with the steers ....... I think we were averaging around the $130 range ....... I hung my head then and now it looks good ...... go figure!

When you factor in the lower gain from not using an implant and or better efficiency from feed additives ....... it's not easy to justify.

The old adage about "something for nothing" holds here ....... there is a lot of talk from the folks that want this kind of beef but unless you are in the inner circle of producers ........ you just get scraps for putting a rope around your neck!

I market cattle to individuals but I sell them live on the farm and the killer comes and the customer owns the animal before it hits the bricks. We have a truck scale at a rock pit on our farm and they get scaled on wheels and back to the corral.

But we are talking peanuts here ........... If I sell three head that way, it's a big year. Simply put too may people want to tip toe into the store and buy one steak at a time and can't or won't lay out that much money at once.

So what I do is market my cattle that are good animals but either have gotten too big or have some other fault that would cause a discount at the auction. I tell my customers just what the deal is and they can chose accordingly.

You don't run an operation on it but it does take some sting out of the process.

Best regards

Three 44s

runfiverun
10-16-2016, 11:07 AM
dang JC.
you pay for red potatoes pretty much what I pay for them right off the field. [literally off the truck that just come off the field]
unless you go right to the cellar and get russets [know the farmer] or pick them out of the piles before the frost they are 10 bucks a 50 lb bag.[red or gold]

that would explain why so many fields went into wheat this year. [the wheat was a barely average harvest in this region BTW]

as far as the beef prices they had to come down.
look at what a matched pair was bringing 5 years ago.
but the end prices are not the price of beef plus a mark up, and processing plus a mark up, and shipping plus a mark up, they are sitting at what the market will bear.

anyway don't look at beef futures look at grass/hay production figures.
I never met a cow raiser that was in the beef business they are all in the grass business.
if the grass is down many will hold onto their calves and at some point the market will have to be saturated driving the price down even further.
unfortunately it's gonna be a long wet winter.

rancher1913
10-16-2016, 03:19 PM
thanks for that insight three44's, sounds like we are on the same page. most years alfalfa around me goes for 250 a ton and up, its been cheaper to do the protein tubs with lesser quality feed but this year I found really nice alfalfa for 80 a ton in round bales. I love the rounds because it really simplifies winter feed chore for me and I was hoping to get the needed protein from the alfalfa. lucked into helping a neighbor put up silage this year and told him I wanted to be paid in silage so I have plenty of really good feed to raise heifers on just don't know if I can take the hit on keeping them verses the needed money from selling. I knew the 3 bucks a pound was a fluke but never thought I would see a buck a pound again.

yes run5run we are grass farmers but around here there is not much grass to farm in winter so we have higher costs than say the folks from Missouri that can run on grass almost all year.

Blackwater
10-16-2016, 03:55 PM
JC, I'm with Run5! Those are some AWESOME prices compared to what we have here! And here, we have lots of cattle raised for meat! I think the middle men here are having a field day! The owner of the largest processing plant around is very rich. The old man who built that business died a few years back, and the family carries it on. Food production facilities can be a very peculiar and varied thing! If I could get the prices you're paying, I'd SERIOUSLY stock up lest prices go back to what they are now! You're a very lucky man!

Plate plinker
10-16-2016, 04:54 PM
JC's meat shop is top notch. I forgot about that one it near my hometown.

buckwheatpaul
10-16-2016, 05:47 PM
Cows are really down in NE Texas. I have some old canners that need to go so I should have a report later this week.....canners generally go here for 60 to 80 cents per pound.....better than feeding them through the winter and possibly losing them.....

400 to 500 lbs were about a dollar a pound.....

runfiverun
10-16-2016, 05:59 PM
we are in the same boat up here.
you have to feed them through the winter.

all the info I have is I have been seeing most of the higher ranches have had the bull haulers up to their place the last week or so.

MT Gianni
10-16-2016, 06:35 PM
I cannot imagine running cattle without putting up hay. We had a good year this year with many having record alfalfa yields. Still you plan your year around what you can feed.

I have not seen grocery prices like JC posted in Montana in the last 20 years.

jcwit
10-16-2016, 07:03 PM
That butcher shop is about 40 miles from our home, we take another couple with us and usually make a run there every other month.

They buy meat by the carcass and do their own cutting up, one buy meat by the whole they then cut to your own specs. In other words you buy a slab of rib eye they then cut to whatever thickness you wish, same with other cuts.

Now of course fish is by the package, ready to sell.

MaryB
10-16-2016, 10:41 PM
Rancher I buy from butchers at 700-800 pounds so they are about a year old. I actually go out there and pick the steer I want to get a share of in spring. I go out a few times a year and help feed etc. They do have really rich pasture along the MN river valley.

Beagle333
10-16-2016, 10:50 PM
This was from the last flyer from the local meat lab here. And I would say this is about average too, it isn't a specialty shop. Most stores will be close to this on any average day. Perhaps Kroger or WalMart or one of the big box store sales might beat it just a bit, but their meat isn't quite the same quality. And this is why I would like to have a few cows wandering around in the back yard.

All prices are per pound unless otherwise noted.

Fresh Beef Hand Cut Daily
$12.49 Ribeye Steaks
$10.49 New York Strip Steaks
$3.39 Ground Beef
$7.49 Top Sirloin Steaks
$4.99 Cubed Steak
$4.99 Stew Beef
$4.19 Bottom Round Steak and Roast
$5.49 Sirloin Tip Steak and Roast
$6.99 Eye of Round Steak and Roast
$4.99 Top Round Steak
$4.19 Chuck Roast

MaryB
10-16-2016, 10:56 PM
My sirloin steak tonight cost me $1.75! Pays to buy a quarter of half of beef once a year. When I was a kid we put 2 whole cows in freezers along with a bunch of chicken and pork. 7 people to feed = lot of meat! Especially since we all worked hard in the gardens, dad was an electrician so he worked hard...

And after buying grass fed beef I can't eat grocery store beef, it is tasteless! And paying $3.49 a pound makes it far more economical even if it hurts to pay out $600 once a year.

jcwit
10-16-2016, 11:21 PM
And after buying grass fed beef I can't eat grocery store beef, it is tasteless! And paying $3.49 a pound makes it far more economical even if it hurts to pay out $600 once a year.

Not when I can buy Prime Rib for only fifty cents more a lb. Plus I can pick and choose what cut's I want.

Plus again the other couple pays for the gas and take the two of us out for dinner, usually at Red Lobster or Applebee's.

Usually do some other shopping also.

Not bad for 5 or 6 times a year!

jcwit
10-16-2016, 11:23 PM
Oh ya, it's not grocery store beef either!

tygar
10-17-2016, 08:37 PM
Guess it depends somewhat on where you live. Here is this weeks add where Wife & I shop for beef.

Prices are effective from: Monday, OCT10 through Sunday, OCT 16TH





WHOLE NEW YORK STRIP LOINS
$2.89LB
12LB AV
PRIME RIB WHOLE BONELESS
rib eyes
$3.99 lb 15LB AVG
WHOLE BEEF
short loins
$4.50 lb
t-bone- porter
SHAVED HAM
$1.79LB


WHOLE TOP SIRLOIN
$2.99 lb
10-15 lb avg.
WHOLE BEEF
TENDERLOIN
$8.99LB
WHOLE PORK BUTT.99Lb
PORK SHOULDERS .95LB
BONELESS CHICKEN BREAST
10lb-$14.90
40lb-$51.99


SPLIT CHICKEN BREAST
10 LB $11.90
40 LB $39.99
PEPSI LITERS 5/$5.00
+DEP
WHOLE BONELESS PORK LOINS
$1.59LB
RUSSET POTATOES
8LB BAG$1.25
5/$5.99


WHOLE BEEF BRISKET 12LB AVG
$2.99 LB
TILAPIA FILLETS 5LB $12.25
10LB BOX $19.99
CENTER CUT PORK CHOPS
10 LB $19.90
PREMIUM TRIM
PORK STEAK
10lbs $13.90


POLLOCK FILLETS
10LB BOX
$15.90
PREMIUM #1
SLICED BACON
10 LBS $25.90
30 lb box $68.99
EZ PEEL 31/40 CT SHRIMP
1LB $4.75
FIRST CUT PORK CHOPS 10LB $9.90



BONELESS BEEF CHUCK ROAST
10LB $35.90
WHOLE BONE IN

PORK LOINS $1.25 LB

LOWERYS OWN FRESH MADE BRATS
10 LB $25.90
CENTRELLA WATER
24PK $1.99


BAR-S-HOTDOGS 10LB $8.90

100%
PURE BEEF
hamburger patties
5 lbs $12.95
BONELESS BEEF RUMP ROAST
10LB $29.90
WHOLE BONE IN
TURKEY BREAST
$1.69LB


CAT FISH NUGGETS 5LB $9.99
15LB BOX $23.90
RED POTATOES 50LB $9.99
SMALL CHICKEN WINGS 10LB $16.90
40 LB BOX $67.50
EGGS .25 DOZEN
10/$1.90


100% BEEF HAMBURGER
PREMIUM EXTRA LEAN
GROUND FRESH
10LBS $23.90
P&D RAW SHRIMP 31/40 $12.99 2LB BAG
CHICKEN DRUMSTICKS 10LB $ 5.90
40LB BOX $22.99
BEEF RANCH STEAK 10 LB $27.90


JUMBO CHICKEN WINGS 10LB $21.90
40LB BOX $79.99
COUNTRY STYLE PORK RIBS
10LB$14.90
Cooked SHRIMP
31/40 $6.99LB
SALMON FILLETS
2LB BAG $8.99
FRESH CHICKEN LEG 1/4S 10LB$490
40LB BOX$18.99


SMALL PORK SPARE RIBS
$1.99LB BOX
$1.89LB
PREMIUM BEEF GROUND SIRLOIN
10 LB $29.90
BABY BACK
PORK RIBS
$2..59 LB
BOX $2.49 LB
CATFISH FILLETS 5LB $ 22.90
15LB $56.99


BONELESS BEEF ARM ROAST
10LB$ 24.90












PORK RIB TIPS 10LB BOX $11.90












POTATOES
50LB BAG $7.90













TURKEY NECKS
OR WINGS DRUMS
10LB $7.90


















This is where they are from, and yes it is quality!

http://lowerysmeatandgrocery.com/

Will they ship to VA? LOL

jcwit
10-17-2016, 10:12 PM
I can post this week's prices but it looks like they are the same as last week.

Don't think they ship to Va. LOL

rancher1913
10-18-2016, 10:26 AM
well on a positive note calves were up to 1.30 for 5 weights last week, keeping my fingers crossed for a little more before I need to sell.

Three44s
10-19-2016, 11:02 AM
rancher1913,

I spotted this one:

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/gl_ls766.txt


I suspect a few things are at play with this wreck:

The trigger was the national herd expansion, weak as it was ........ we are coming off the smallest herd since the '50s ......... with a percentage increase in single digits.

The weak economy.

Packer concentration and formula pricing ......... more leverage on the market and much of the fat's are sold without public knowledge. The warnings about the effect this would have on the cattle market have been going out for several years.

Three 44s

shdwlkr
10-19-2016, 01:48 PM
ranch 13
Lets look at some things
dairy prices for milk are down almost to the point some are looking at getting out of business ( more meat hitting the market)
potatoes are cheap this year, some are having a time getting enough to pay bills
truck farmers are struggling prices down
hay is in great supply this year so cheap
Now if you look at the consumer end prices are going only one way and that is up
So if the producer is getting less and the consumer is paying more you know who is making the money
This election cycle will either force more producers to tank or they will get help in selling product think international
How do I see things
Well I remember a long time ago when it was like it is now, a lot of folks got hurt and hurt bad, back then dad was into ag before he became a hydraulic engineer for the state. A few farmers went the route of selling all animals, taking a job of the land and just raising hay and straw and grain for a few years and that worked for them. Some just lost everything but the homestead and a few acres of ground.
Farming/ranching in this country has gone mega size didn't work for the Russians won't last here either, costs to high and those working the ground don't care as it returns very little to them. Look now at Russia those working the ground own the ground they have a vested interest and production is much better. Those huge tractors are rusting in the field costs to much to run them.
Now a really scary thing world economy is on the verge of tanking, stock market is bloated big time, the dollar is going to tank on the world market. We have more people not working in America since the the 70's. Stop let that sink in we have 94,000,000 people taking out of the economy and not putting in!
My brother and I want a small place 50-100 acres of good ground, right now that has a price tag of around 1.5 million dollars, again let that sink in. Now to build or rebuild to meet ours needs and purchase the equipment we need there goes another 750 thousand dollars. Just how do you get a return on your money when costs are that high? Simple answer is you really don't. You have to see it in being where you want to be doing what you want to do.
Well that is how things are shaping up in my world. By the way I purchase a home this year for what a few decades ago I could have bought that small place my brother and I want and a lot of equipment even. Nope nothing special just the going price for homes in my area. Which is according to real estate averages is 250 thousand and no I didn't pay that much, but not that much less either.
I see the next few years as being tough, higher utility bills, high fuel prices, higher food prices, less money to buy anything with and most of all a lot of people being hurt by this correction that has to occur on the stock market, buying power of the dollar and most of all those stupid idiots in Washington that think you can buy your way out of debt while still spending way more than you have.
Best of luck hanging on to anything and if there is any way you can hang onto a few heifers and a bull or two you just might want too as it won't be that long before few will be able to produce new animals and then the prices will climb and climb fast.
Dad liked baby beef, young heifers (18-24 months), then there was the dairy beef as we called them the culls from the dairy farms that went to slaughter. When I worked on the farm we sent some cows to slaughter and got more for them than the replacement ones we sent and we bought replacements for the cost of just a few hundred bucks a few times.
Keep us informed on how you are doing as you are not alone and very soon you may have way more company than you ever thought possible and a whole lot of folks who wished they could even have a small garden to raise a few vegetables to help the food bill.

rancher1913
10-19-2016, 03:17 PM
shdwklr, we had to let food in the garden rot this year, could not find anybody that was even willing to pick free food for themselves, everybody's comment was "I will take it if you deliver it". we are blessed in that the ground is paid for, the poor ranchers having to make land payments are going to be really hurting. just finished hauling home the last of the alfalfa to get us through winter and the firewood is laid in for the winter so we are better than most I suppose.

tja6435
10-19-2016, 04:08 PM
You could look into a freeze dryer to use to package and store any leftover garden vegetables. I have always thought I'd like to have a small farm for my family and that's exactly what I'd do to ensure we are saving and using as much as posseible. With all the freeze dried food companies, I figured I'd work out a recipe to grow and dehydrate and package myself and resell to the marketing dept of the survival food companies.

shdwlkr
10-19-2016, 05:36 PM
ranch
Here in the city you sometimes get those that help themselves to your garden stuff as they are too lazy to go to the store and spend money to get it. So far my stuff has stayed with me. I here you on not wanting to do the work even for free food.
When I was a kid I worked on a dairy farm if nothing there I worked on a sheep farm if nothing there I worked in the potato farm. In the fall it was most often the potato farmer that got me as I worked hard and long and made him lots of money because many shippers only allowed the semi to be there for so many hours to load then the farmer paid. I remember one time we had to load two trucks in just 6 hours, no bags just lots of potatoes and the company didn't think we could do it, so the farmer being a good Irishman made a bet that we could and if we did he wanted a premium paid before the trucks left. I made a few hundred dollars that day and the rest of the crew made out well too.
I think we just might be going back to those days, when after the farmer gets what he can a few select folks will get to glean the land, not many but just those who understand what it takes to get from seed to crop. Meat is going to be expensive and only on the table once twice a week like it was when I was a kid and dad was a teacher. Back then they only made something like $3000 a year. Hard times but at least I understand them and hope I can make it through again.
Good to hear your land is yours so all you have to worry about is taxes. Yes it sounds like you at least have a fighting chance. I would like to get back to wood heat, even learn how to cook on a wood cookstove, yep I like some things we have today like freezers, electric lights and pumps, the rest is just to take up time, tv, internet, etc.
One day I hope to have my place in the country before I am too old to enjoy for a few years.\
My place here in the city has a couple of peach trees, an apple tree that needs lots of tlc hasn't taken care of, some raspberries if they made it through this summer, hope to plan some grapes, rhubarb next year, have a better garden got the place in june and and still got some stuff.

Down South
10-19-2016, 08:26 PM
Sold of my cattle herd a number of years ago when I didn't have the time to feed, take care of, mend fence... The list goes on.. I lucked out and sold out when the market was high... I actually made a few bucks for all of my long hrs and days of raising them .

MaryB
10-20-2016, 01:00 AM
Yup they came out with a small home unit now https://harvestright.com/product/freeze-dryer-red/ $3k so it may take a year or two to pay for itself... but freeze dried and mylar sealed with an O2 absorber it is good for 5+ years! Could advertise on a prepper site in your state and avoid USDA regs of shipping over the border...


You could look into a freeze dryer to use to package and store any leftover garden vegetables. I have always thought I'd like to have a small farm for my family and that's exactly what I'd do to ensure we are saving and using as much as posseible. With all the freeze dried food companies, I figured I'd work out a recipe to grow and dehydrate and package myself and resell to the marketing dept of the survival food companies.

MaryB
10-20-2016, 01:04 AM
If someone offered to me I would have been all over it and filled a third freezer! I blanch and vacuum bag and it lasts for 2-3 years with no deterioration! But I could be called a prepper.. my own garden produce was canned and frozen, I picked free mulberries(might ferment them into a melomel(form of mead)). Just canned more apples tonight so I have a nice stash for pies and deserts or just plain eating from the jar! I also have 10 trays of apples in the dehydrator drying down for pocket snacks when I go fishing or small game hunting.


ranch
Here in the city you sometimes get those that help themselves to your garden stuff as they are too lazy to go to the store and spend money to get it. So far my stuff has stayed with me. I here you on not wanting to do the work even for free food.
When I was a kid I worked on a dairy farm if nothing there I worked on a sheep farm if nothing there I worked in the potato farm. In the fall it was most often the potato farmer that got me as I worked hard and long and made him lots of money because many shippers only allowed the semi to be there for so many hours to load then the farmer paid. I remember one time we had to load two trucks in just 6 hours, no bags just lots of potatoes and the company didn't think we could do it, so the farmer being a good Irishman made a bet that we could and if we did he wanted a premium paid before the trucks left. I made a few hundred dollars that day and the rest of the crew made out well too.
I think we just might be going back to those days, when after the farmer gets what he can a few select folks will get to glean the land, not many but just those who understand what it takes to get from seed to crop. Meat is going to be expensive and only on the table once twice a week like it was when I was a kid and dad was a teacher. Back then they only made something like $3000 a year. Hard times but at least I understand them and hope I can make it through again.
Good to hear your land is yours so all you have to worry about is taxes. Yes it sounds like you at least have a fighting chance. I would like to get back to wood heat, even learn how to cook on a wood cookstove, yep I like some things we have today like freezers, electric lights and pumps, the rest is just to take up time, tv, internet, etc.
One day I hope to have my place in the country before I am too old to enjoy for a few years.\
My place here in the city has a couple of peach trees, an apple tree that needs lots of tlc hasn't taken care of, some raspberries if they made it through this summer, hope to plan some grapes, rhubarb next year, have a better garden got the place in june and and still got some stuff.

montana_charlie
10-20-2016, 11:52 AM
Yup they came out with a small home unit now https://harvestright.com/product/freeze-dryer-red/ $3k so it may take a year or two to pay for itself... but freeze dried and mylar sealed with an O2 absorber it is good for 5+ years!
I hear Ron Paul advertising on the radio for a home freeze dryer. He finishes by saying he can preserve all of his favorite foods ... including lasagna and ice cream ... and it's good for 25 years.

Now, how can he get away with that?

rancher1913
10-20-2016, 02:46 PM
the freeze dry units look good until you talk to people that actually have them, most report it takes forever and a day to dry food and the electrical usage is thru the roof. we did some serious research on them, not for resale use but just for our own use and canning the food was a whole lot cheaper. you can buy a lot of freeze dried food from honeyville for the cost of the unit.

Down South
10-20-2016, 08:16 PM
I hear Ron Paul advertising on the radio for a home freeze dryer. He finishes by saying he can preserve all of his favorite foods ... including lasagna and ice cream ... and it's good for 25 years.

Now, how can he get away with that?
He can't. False Advertising.

Down South
10-20-2016, 08:29 PM
mylar sealed with an O2 absorber it is good for 5+ years!
I'm not a Prepper, Errrrrr, I mean I don't do stuff like this because I know that life is full of rose blossoms and everything will be great for the rest of our lives and we don't have to worry about anything.

But..... I have a lot of beans, rice and a "few" other items stored in mylar bags with O2 absorbers stashed back. You know, buy 25-50 lb bags of beans, rice, other stuff in bulk for a great discount... You don't want it to go bad or get bugs in it. BTW, I hard freeze all of that "Stuff" for at least for 24 hrs before sealing in the mylar bags....
But, I'm not a prepper.:roll:

rancher1913
10-20-2016, 08:35 PM
I'm a pepper he's a pepper, wouldn't you like to be a pepper too :drinks:

MaryB
10-21-2016, 03:07 AM
I cycle through rice and beans fast enough that foodsaver bags are fine for bulk storage. I do it in one pound bags for easy grab and the leftovers fit a quart canning jar to put in the cupboard.