PDA

View Full Version : Gas prices - don't ya just love it !!!!!!



snowwolfe
01-07-2016, 01:50 PM
Filled up the wife's car yesterday for $1.59 a gallon! Never thought I would see prices this low again and now am hoping for under $1.50

geargnasher
01-07-2016, 02:53 PM
I'm not. Sure, low prices are great, but the reasons why are not so great, in fact darn right awful and are hurting a lot of things and people.

Gear

rockrat
01-07-2016, 02:55 PM
I don't love it either. Lot of people in the "patch" out of work

snowwolfe
01-07-2016, 03:03 PM
Hate to see anyone lose a job but the "patch" people weren't complaining when we were paying close to $4 a gallon. Now it's our turn.☺️
Anyone who doesn't like the low prices is free to donate the difference to the "patch" people
No one will ever convince me I am better off paying an additional $2 a gallon every time I buy gas

Beerd
01-07-2016, 03:10 PM
I like it too, but ........
is there any correlation between the price of gas and the value of my 401-K account?
..

jcwit
01-07-2016, 03:13 PM
As with most things in this world there pluses and there minuses.

For my personal pocketbook it's nice, but then for others not so good.

Actually right here where I live it's great as the RV industry is gang busters.

jmort
01-07-2016, 03:15 PM
The Saudis know that oil needs to be $40.00 or less and they will keep it there for the foreseeable future.

bosterr
01-07-2016, 03:23 PM
The 40 year ban on US exports of oil was recently lifted. Low prices won't last long.

rockrat
01-07-2016, 03:29 PM
Actually there were alot of the workers in the "patch" that didn't care for gas prices so high and couldn't understand why oil was so high. They thought it should have been down around $75 instead of the $125. States are also hurting and all those that depend on the state, both the good and the bad. Revenues to the Feds is down quite a bit too. Means they need to print more money. Charities in the "patch" states are hurting too.

Being one of the "patch" people, that has been hit by low oil, donations were durn few this year. The "Angel tree" this year got some, but no one else, unlike past years. Can't give what you aren't getting.

Enjoy your low prices

Friends call me Pac
01-07-2016, 03:44 PM
I'm not crying for anyone losing money over low gas prices. Nobody cried for me when I was getting ripped off with stupid high prices for gas & diesel.

Tackleberry41
01-07-2016, 03:44 PM
I saw $1.55 for regular this morning outside Nashville.

I stopped to put gas in my pig other day, Dodge 2500 w a hemi. It requires midgrade. Where I live mid grade is actually hard to find, most places carry 2 types of regular ethanol mix and no ethanol, but nothing else. And the places that do carry mid grade, jack the price where its not much more to buy premium. I have been buying from a little place thats cheaper than most places but still ethanol free. 1/2 a tank in the truck is $40. I stopped other day in S Nashville, had a half tank, gave the clerk $40. Had to go back inside and get $18 back.

Low oil prices are good for consumers, but as pointed out bad for others. Most of its the Saudis. Part of it is they want to get rid of the US shale producers, the other part was a way to try and force Russia to back off on Syria. So long as Syria is going, don't expect prices to rise. Has a political effect, as its hard to push for the Keystone pipeline to bring in oil from Canada, at the same time they are pushing to allow US exports. Hard to argue they need the pipeline to import it, when were exporting oil.

Hogtamer
01-07-2016, 03:44 PM
Indeed, but sowing the seeds for the next "shortage" as marginal production disappears around the world. Commodity cycles are pretty long though and the next several years we should enjoy low energy prices, barring confligration in the middle east. Fertilizer, plastics, transportation, food production, anything oil related should will benefit. YAY!

destrux
01-07-2016, 03:56 PM
OPEC put out a press release three weeks ago stating that fuel prices would be spiking up.... and then they fell. We're at $2.12 here with our state's fuel tax.

dragon813gt
01-07-2016, 05:00 PM
I'm not crying for anyone losing money over low gas prices. Nobody cried for me when I was getting ripped off with stupid high prices for gas & diesel.

Same here. I'm not the one that chose a profession in the oil industry. I also have enough skills to work in multiple trades if I were to lose my job today. The business world is every man for himself. I like low gas prices and want them to stay there.

runfiverun
01-07-2016, 05:27 PM
Indeed, but sowing the seeds for the next "shortage" as marginal production disappears around the world. Commodity cycles are pretty long though and the next several years we should enjoy low energy prices, barring confligration in the middle east. Fertilizer, plastics, transportation, food production, anything oil related should will benefit. YAY!

no it won't.
your not gonna see anything go down.
the dollar is not worth enough to buy anything cheap.
the price of lead and copper is down about 50% do you see bullet prices going down?
the plastic used in powder jugs is made from oil and the powder is shipped cheaper, do you see their prices going down?
shipping of food, and fuel to work the fields is one of it's biggest contributors to price, do you see their prices going down?

when oil was over 1.25 a gallon there was no reason for it except it was being artificially inflated by a certain bozo in the us government.
he pissed the wrong people off and they hit back in the part of the economy that was actually creating jobs at the time [no not the us government which is steadily increasing it's work force, to enforce the E.O.'s being made daily] the oil field.

Love Life
01-07-2016, 05:33 PM
There was an article in early 2015 after the OPEC meeting explaining why they kept the pumps wide open. Specifically to kill American production.

rockrat
01-07-2016, 05:48 PM
Just wondering, when gas was so high, how many of you lost your jobs because of it?

Love Life
01-07-2016, 05:53 PM
I didn't, but hot diggity it hurt to go from $80 a month in gas to almost $300 a month in gas over a 30 day period.

I really hate that the oil workers are losing their jobs. Will this new allowing of exports create jobs?

Ickisrulz
01-07-2016, 06:01 PM
Just wondering, when gas was so high, how many of you lost your jobs because of it?

I don't know anyone. But I'm sure some employers downsized as consumers had less money to buy nonessential items.

rockrat
01-07-2016, 06:03 PM
It is supposed to create jobs as you have to construct the infrastructure to be able to ship the oil, but I can see downsides to the exporting thing too and how it will affect others.

Love Life
01-07-2016, 06:16 PM
Think the foreigners will keep the pipes wide open to try and snuff out American production and export?

Blanket
01-07-2016, 06:30 PM
Just wondering, when gas was so high, how many of you lost your jobs because of it?
Try farming with high fuel prices and low grain prices

big bore 99
01-07-2016, 06:38 PM
So much for peak oil?? I agree, they're trying to undercut the US shale industry. It's all political. They're also trying to starve out Russia and Iran. I recently heard talk of tacking on a dollar or two taxes as long as it's so cheap. When prices get back to normal, you'd bet they will never reduce the tax.

Love Life
01-07-2016, 06:46 PM
I've heard that same thing about adding another buck-a-roo tax to fuel...since it's so cheap and all. It's almost like "The man" doesn't want us common folk to have some jing-a-ling in our pockets.

shooter93
01-07-2016, 07:16 PM
Economies fluctuate, things go up and down. Did people lose jobs with high oil/gas....yes. The building industry which is far larger than most people realize had taken a hit in this economy like it never had before. Then you toss in high fuel prices and it was murder. Materials climbed out of sight and the cost of getting to work went way up. Trying to compensate workers for their added expense, bidding jobs lower than ever because the perspective customers expenses had risen too doesn't work out to well. This really effected smaller builders who are actually preform the bulk of the work. Many jobs were cancelled because customers costs to get to work and heat their homes went up. So yes....it was bad for some businesses. It happens but I could stand to have the lower prices for the next 10 years or so. When energy is low or reasonable almost all facets of the economy do well.

jmort
01-07-2016, 07:29 PM
I was in the construction industry when the housing market collapsed. Loved my work. It all went away. Millions of jobs and companies, gone, in short order. I am certain more construction jobs were lost, far more, than anything that has ever occurred in oil and gas industry.

daniel lawecki
01-07-2016, 07:30 PM
How many times has the Middle East done this? Every time our oil fields are back on line and we invest here. They open the spigot and people are out of jobs any millions of dollars of equipment lays to rust or is sold as scrape.

dragon813gt
01-07-2016, 07:37 PM
Just wondering, when gas was so high, how many of you lost your jobs because of it?

I did not. But lots of companies, including the one I worked for, in the HVAC industry here cut jobs. They couldn't afford to keep the vans on the road. It really effected the mom and pop shops. They typically fail w/in five years during good times. When fuel skyrocketed they went under quickly. The company I worked for went from 50 employees to 30 in a span of six months. And this is where having skills and knowledge meant you kept your job. Thinking you will always have employment in the oil industry is foolish in my eyes. It's a boom and bust cycle.

rockrat
01-07-2016, 07:51 PM
Yeah, I think this is the fifth bust cycle I have been in, in the "patch"

Blanket------Been there too. Thats when I went into the oil patch. Glutton for punishment I guess

snowwolfe
01-07-2016, 08:33 PM
Oil shortages and/or surpluses make me laugh. During the last 10 years when the prices went up it was blamed on a lack of supply. Seriously??? Give me a break, did anyone pull up to a pump in the last 10 years and see a sign saying they were out of gas do to a worldwide shortage?
Oil industry has been living like a fat pig for the last decade and I doubt many are sad because gas prices are so cheap today.

starmac
01-07-2016, 08:43 PM
I don'rt know that oil had all that much to do with t housing bubble busting, much more to do with the creative financeing and way overbuilding. Even if high oil prices caused it it is probably a close to even trade off as far as construction goes, you lose some construction when high, but then again you lose most industrial const when it is low.

Anybody remember Texas in the 80's when the price of oil went to nothing, talk about a housing bubble, 40,000 a month in Harris county went on the auction block. Folks that had an unused 5000 buck credit card could pay for a nice house with one.

jmort
01-07-2016, 08:50 PM
Oil prices had nothing to do with the housing collapse. It was a bubble caused by easy loans and speculation. I had a client that "owed" an $850,000.00 (at the bottom the worth dropped to around $400k) house working as a janitor for $10.00 an hour and got a stated-income loan for 100% no down. That is why the bubble burst.

dragon813gt
01-07-2016, 08:51 PM
Oil prices didn't have anything to do w/ the housing bubble. But it sure hurt when business was down. I know what the cost was to keep a fleet of twenty five vans on the road. I can't imagine what it cost for the trucking fleets.

shooter93
01-07-2016, 08:58 PM
High oil didn't cause or contribute to the housing bubble burst starmac but what it did do was just when we thought there would be a small recovery energy went way up raising the costs of building up and trust me...many customers had to cancel jobs because of their sudden rising costs. Building is pretty localized and in many places....my area for one....there wasn't any over building and very few creative financing schemes it has pretty much all been high energy costs. Also in many areas industrial construction is the smallest part of the local market. Even people here who have VERY secure jobs were worried about the economy and shut down things they normally wouldn't think twice about. I've been at this over 50 years and weathered it all but this has been a hit like no other.

starmac
01-07-2016, 10:32 PM
High prices cost the trucking industry for the first few months, weeded lots out, but it stabilized and anyone that weathered the first few months came out better in the long haul, it is actually costing me more for fuel now if I haul freight, than it did at the highest. I am coming out ahead now on the log truck on fuel, but were talking 15 bucks a day.

snowwolfe
01-07-2016, 10:41 PM
How is it costing you more for fuel now when it's at a 10 year low than when the price of fuel peaked?

TXGunNut
01-07-2016, 11:27 PM
Saw $1.39 gas in Wharton, TX a little while back. Thought I'd never see that again. Many of us are affected by the oil downturn whether we know it or not. Many of my customers are oil patch companies and their employees and when times are good they spend money like drunken sailors. I think it will turn around, just don't know when. My investment guy advised me to invest in oil & gas companies because he figures they are about as low as they're going to go. I followed his advice, that way when we're paying more at the pump I'll be smiling in spite of it all.

starmac
01-07-2016, 11:47 PM
How is it costing you more for fuel now when it's at a 10 year low than when the price of fuel peaked?

Rates + fuel surcharge, when it was at the highest, I would fuel my truck and usually, depending on the load, put a hundred bucks in my pocket, more or less like getting paid 100 bucks to fuel up. Now I pay 600 bucks or so,out of pocket.

David2011
01-08-2016, 02:22 AM
Filled up the wife's car yesterday for $1.59 a gallon! Never thought I would see prices this low again and now am hoping for under $1.50

Hoped I wouldn't.


I like it too, but ........
is there any correlation between the price of gas and the value of my 401-K account?
..

YES!


Saw $1.39 gas in Wharton, TX a little while back. . . My investment guy advised me to invest in oil & gas companies because he figures they are about as low as they're going to go. I followed his advice, that way when we're paying more at the pump I'll be smiling in spite of it all.

That's scary. I did the same. Bought stock in a couple of major oil companies about a year ago at 12 month lows. Today they're worth 2/3 of what I paid. I bought for the long term so not terribly worried about it. The country and the economy as a whole have never been betater off when oil prices were depressed. I'm an I.T. guy for an oilfield company and have seen 1000 out of a staff of 1600 laid off in the last 16 months in our area. That does nothing for the economy or local tax revenues. I once worked in public television and that business suffered when the general economy was down as well.

David

lightman
01-08-2016, 11:00 AM
I like it too, but ........
is there any correlation between the price of gas and the value of my 401-K account?
..

You beat me to it, but the answer is yes. The Stock Market has been taking a beating and most of it is being blamed on China, but some of it is falling energy prices. And yes, I'm enjoying cheaper gas. An article in the paper here stated that the last contractor in the shale drilling business would stop work at the end of 2015. Lots of that here in parts of the State. I hate that people are out of work but I don't see consumer prices dropping because of lower oil prices. It looks like 2016 is going to be a wild ride!

As far as the housing boom and bust goes, I'm blaming the politicians (I think Clinton) that changed the banking laws, requiring the banks to loan money to those that could not afford it. Around here, we saw lots of $250,000-500,000 houses being bought by couples right out of college making $35,000 a year and dealing with student loans. I looks to me like that was programed to fail, and it did. Once again, I feel for you guy that felt the bite from this.

AK Caster
01-08-2016, 12:14 PM
I don't think it is my responsibility or the responsibility of at least 90% of the American consumers to subsidize the oil industry by paying high fuel prices.
Every time there are huge price swings in any commodities some benefit and some lose. This time the vast % of Americans benefit.

Friends call me Pac
01-08-2016, 12:38 PM
Just wondering, when gas was so high, how many of you lost your jobs because of it?

No I did not loose my job but my 70 mile round trip commute with crazy high gas prices didn't do me any favors. I had to work & moving wasn't an option. Using a large portion of my paycheck just to drive back & forth to work seemed kind of pointless of working in the first place. Probably not pointless to the fat cats laughing all the way to the bank. I thank God for my small military retirement check. Now with a more reasonable cost for gas I can actually go fishing once in awhile. I'm sure the tackle shop owner is glad to see that $ coming in along with everyone else that gets a little cash along the way. I'm spending the same amount of money it just gets spread to more people.

rockrat
01-08-2016, 12:39 PM
You do realize that the cheap energy prices will come back to bite you in the hind end one of these days. With drilling depressed, unless OPEC keeps the spigot open, our surplus will become a deficit and prices will rise.

Also, you understand that the "oil industry" comprises much more than the big companies and affects many other sectors. People who own mineral rights, maybe under the old family farms, the steel companies that make the pipe, construction industries that build well pads and homes for the workers, car dealers, corner convenience stores that sell fuel to the workers. Trucking companies, ect., the list goes on and on.

People usually think of BP, Shell oil and such when oil is mentioned, but there is so much more involved. I believe it is said that a dollar spent will end up going around 10X, so with the oil jobs lost, you might have a -10x ripple effect.

With the China economy slowing it seems, this could be a wild ride 2016

snowwolfe
01-08-2016, 01:26 PM
BS, I get tired of hearing how more money in our pockets to spend on other things is bad for the economy. The wife and I are both retired living on our military pensions and my social security (until wifey starts collecting hers in a few years).
Sing the same song all you want but the more money the average American has to spend and spread around helps a lot more than the precious few who are engaged in the oil markets

mozeppa
01-08-2016, 01:29 PM
i remember 24.9 cents per gallon ...monthly rent on a home $67.50...groceries 6 bucks a full bag.

white eagle
01-08-2016, 01:42 PM
Frankly when gas was high no one gave a poop about how my family would pay
now that it is inline of its worth gas is not a major consideration in our monthly
budget.Like it low keep it low ,need to eat

dragon813gt
01-08-2016, 01:45 PM
Energy prices have always been cyclical. I will deal w/ them on a day by day basis. I'm not concerned about them biting me in the future.

What I do know is that I have more money to spend on non-necessities. This means I'm able to pay down debt quicker. And I have more money to spend on discretionary items. It's a win win for me at the moment. I plan on taking full advantage of the situation while I can.

quilbilly
01-08-2016, 01:46 PM
The stampede to raise gas taxes has already begun by they Dems and their greenies.

dtknowles
01-08-2016, 01:48 PM
I like it too, but ........
is there any correlation between the price of gas and the value of my 401-K account?
..

Depends on how much of your 401K is invested in Shell or Exxon Mobil.

Tim

dtknowles
01-08-2016, 01:49 PM
Low gas prices, there will be winners and losers. High oil prices there will be winners and losers but the will be different ones.

What sucks is that we are not the ones driving the train, it is the Saudi's.

Ask Russia or Iran what they think about that.

Tim

starmac
01-08-2016, 02:21 PM
Retired folks and those on a fixed income are always losers when the prices are high, there is just no getting around that.
I remember getting gas as low as 19.9 a gallon for about a year os so when I first started driving, before the fake shortage of 73. I also remember what wages were, the cost of vehicles, etc,etc.

Snowewolf, Iirc you worked in Alaska before your retirement. If so do you not figure that at least at the time you benefitted from the fuel prices, like every single other Alaskan resident.

snowwolfe
01-08-2016, 03:12 PM
The only way I can see we benefited was the PFD's we received. But in the long run we would of been much better off with low gas prices instead. I remember filling up our halibut boat for $500 and spending about $175 to tow it to Homer and back. At today's fuel prices we would be way ahead without the PFD's and low fuel prices. Pretty much everything we did for fun was controlled by the price of fuel whether it was running to eureka to play in the snow, chartering a bush plane, boating, etc. We basically quit running the sleds when gas hit $4 a gallon.
Sorry for you oil people. But you seriously can't believe that high fuel prices are good for the American consumers. You can sing the same song any way you like but the average guy just ain't gonna believe it, including me.

starmac
01-08-2016, 03:47 PM
Personally my wife and I have never filed for the pfd's, I think My kids do though. That is just one benefit and probably the very lowest one on the totem ploe in the state of Alaska.
This state runs on oil, I am not part of it, per say, other than the little bit of freight that I haul north (when I do), but everyone in the state benefits directly from it. I think many will be looking for something to do down south in the next few years, as things tighten up up here. Hope I am wrong, but without the oil revenue, the state just can't support near as many folks, pretty much every industry depends on it one way or the other.

jcwit
01-08-2016, 03:54 PM
Nobody cared much about the RV workers when the price if gas was high and our unemployment ran 20% here in No. Indiana.

I remember working in sales for at that time #1 manufacturer, and having days with "0" sales, and that was for the whole sales dept.

David2011
01-08-2016, 04:46 PM
I don't think it is my responsibility or the responsibility of at least 90% of the American consumers to subsidize the oil industry by paying high fuel prices.
Every time there are huge price swings in any commodities some benefit and some lose. This time the vast % of Americans benefit.

That IS one way to view it. Like it or not, the economy is and always has been trickle-down. When the oilfield crashes people quit buying at the grocery stores, hardware stores, gun stores and just about everywhere. Workers, often renters, move away from a depressed area. Apartment and rent house owners lose their income. They no longer have surplus money to turn back to the local economy. Car dealers are affected. Plumbers are affected. Local, state and Federal governments are affected due to lost tax revenue. Funding for the community Seniors Center is reduced because of reduced tax revenues. The company for which I work collected and paid sales taxes (public info) on over $1BIL in 2014. In 2015 the sales dropped to under $500MIL. That kind of downturn affects the entire community. It's not a subsidy, it's a commodity as mentioned and the price will vary. IMO, based on a few years in the industry and a lifetime observing its effects, the country is generally better off with moderate oil and gasoline prices.

David

Geezer in NH
01-08-2016, 05:11 PM
The stampede to raise gas taxes has already begun by they Dems and their greenies.Please just when did the stop?

dtknowles
01-08-2016, 05:31 PM
The stampede to raise gas taxes has already begun by they Dems and their greenies.

When the greenies raise gas prices it will only hurt the Oil Patch more, they will just tax the gas not raise the oil price.

Tim

snowwolfe
01-08-2016, 06:00 PM
That IS one way to view it. Like it or not, the economy is and always has been trickle-down. When the oilfield crashes people quit buying at the grocery stores, hardware stores, gun stores and just about everywhere. Workers, often renters, move away from a depressed area. Apartment and rent house owners lose their income. They no longer have surplus money to turn back to the local economy. Car dealers are affected. Plumbers are affected. Local, state and Federal governments are affected due to lost tax revenue. Funding for the community Seniors Center is reduced because of reduced tax revenues. The company for which I work collected and paid sales taxes (public info) on over $1BIL in 2014. In 2015 the sales dropped to under $500MIL. That kind of downturn affects the entire community. It's not a subsidy, it's a commodity as mentioned and the price will vary. IMO, based on a few years in the industry and a lifetime observing its effects, the country is generally better off with moderate oil and gasoline prices.

David

Please feel free to explain to me and others whose income doesn't vary much from year to year why we are better off paying more for gas? The majority of us do not live close to "oil patches". When instead we can be using the extra cash to benefit all types of businesses close to us

white eagle
01-08-2016, 06:11 PM
retired folks income does not fluctuate to a great extent
money saved on expensive gas can get an extra log for the fire
or chicken in the pot

dragon813gt
01-08-2016, 06:16 PM
I think that's where people aren't seeing the whole picture. Lost tax revenue from low oil prices only effects the states w/ oil production. Same goes for the towns effected by it.

Where I live in SE PA everyone is going to have more money to spend. But the northern tier of the state is going to be in for a rough ride. The towns will go back to the way they were. Which I'm personally glad for. This is selfish of me but I've watched what all the fracking has done to the area.

While oil workers won't have any income. Along w/ the businesses that support them. If your state has other industries it will be business as usual w/ people now having more money to spend.

Walkingwolf
01-08-2016, 06:45 PM
Wake me up when we reach $.17 a gallon...

starmac
01-08-2016, 07:24 PM
It affects all states to some degree, oil companies pay billions in federal taxes, oil company employees and employees of any business touched by oil companies (which happens to be most industries) employees pay more billions in state and federal taxes.
Even in states with industry with no ties to oil, is still affected to some degree for the most part. All industries rely on customers, very few big business will not lose customers when the oil patch.
Many states, and probably feds will raise taxes on gas and oil, what do you think will happen the next time the prices go up, like we all know it will.

David2011
01-08-2016, 10:57 PM
Please feel free to explain to me and others whose income doesn't vary much from year to year why we are better off paying more for gas? The majority of us do not live close to "oil patches". When instead we can be using the extra cash to benefit all types of businesses close to us

I believe my words were "the country is generally better off with moderate oil and gasoline prices." There seems to be a pretty even split among us between those that understand this and those that don't. I recognize that specific individuals might be slightly better off with depressed oil prices.

The Federal government confiscates tax revenue and redistributes it to fund things in your community. Those funds are down when oil revenues are down. While you may be better off with your out of pocket costs your community still has less Federally confiscated and redistributed money coming in. If the government doesn't get its projected revenue it borrows money, exacerbating the problem and making all of us worse off due to increasing Federal debt.

I have always lived in areas where there was in oil but have only worked for oil related companies for about half of my adult life. I haven't always liked the price of gasoline but I have always been better off when it was moderate due to the economy that surrounded me.

David

Fishman
01-09-2016, 10:03 AM
Moderation in all things.

Cyclical businesses have always been inefficient. High prices for a commodity result in a mad rush of investors and subsequent over building of infrastructure. When prices decline from overproduction, the price goes down for the commodity and the consumer benefits temporarily. Production slows and demand increases (it's cheap remember?) And then suddenly prices spike. And the cycle repeats.

I don't know what the answer is, but for something as fundamental to our prosperity as energy, there has to be a better way.

snowwolfe
01-09-2016, 10:55 AM
A
I believe my words were "the country is generally better off with moderate oil and gasoline prices." There seems to be a pretty even split among us between those that understand this and those that don't.

David

I don't think the issue is whether or not people understand. Many of us are capable of understanding and forming a different opinion. Both the state and federal government tax the fuel sold by the gallon so it doesn't matter if the price is $1 or $5 a gallon the taxes remain the same. The big difference is that some states, maybe all, tax the oil coming out of the ground at rates based on the current value of oil. But this mainly only affects the states who are the bigger oil producers

starmac
01-09-2016, 11:24 AM
And the oil companees pay taxes (billions) on their profit, and employees pay on their wages. Not to mention pipeline taxes, permit fees, which is more or less a tax, and sometimes cost more than drilling a well. All and all the govt is the big winner.
Oil has been and will also be in the future a huge political tool, when the price spiked during the Clinton administration, He had made a deal with opec to limit production and raise world prices so that Mexico could pay some bills.

snowwolfe
01-09-2016, 12:36 PM
Every business we give money to that we didn't use for fuel pays wages and taxes as well. And they even use some of the money for construction costs, etc. :) it's pretty much a given that money not spent on fuel is spent on other things.
This could go on forever at this point.

Nicholas
01-09-2016, 01:49 PM
Well, it is cheap now. Why aren't we building our strategic reserves? That would help support a stable price and keep the U.S. industry intact.

mold maker
01-09-2016, 03:26 PM
I can't and don't speak for others, but the current fuel prices allow me to spend my SS check somewhere other than the gas station. I can now afford to drive to a part-time job at a profit.
Try paying $4./gal in a 11 MPG truck on SS, and your understand a lot of things better.

jcwit
01-09-2016, 03:33 PM
Above is a reason I drive a vehicle that gets 35+ MPG.

dtknowles
01-09-2016, 08:02 PM
Above is a reason I drive a vehicle that gets 35+ MPG.

You are evil, I bet that car was cheaper than a tricked out full size pickup too. You are not doing your part to support the American Auto workers or the American Oil Field workers. You need to go buy an F250 right away. (purple font malfunction)

Tim

mold maker
01-10-2016, 09:52 AM
That pickup was bought for a specific purpose/reason and I can't afford to replace it.
BTW I traded a 73 Suburban (280K+) in on this 03 truck. I have to have a truck and this crew cab was to transport a disabled grandson in a child seat and wheel chair. It's my only transportation.
They don't/didn't make a 35 MPG Crew Cab.

jcwit
01-10-2016, 12:20 PM
That pickup was bought for a specific purpose/reason and I can't afford to replace it.
BTW I traded a 73 Suburban (280K+) in on this 03 truck. I have to have a truck and this crew cab was to transport a disabled grandson in a child seat and wheel chair. It's my only transportation.
They don't/didn't make a 35 MPG Crew Cab.

Please do not think I'm arguing with you in any way, but I drive a 2005 Pontiac Vibe made by Toyota that gets 35+ MPG on the highway, and yes a wheelchair fits in the back, without folding down the rear seats, I've done it, taking disabled vets to the VA.

Furthermore my wife drives a KIA Rio, 2003 that gets 39 MPG on the highway. And she has transported her mother and put a wheel chair in the trunk with the trunk lid closed. No the rear seats do not fold down on the Rio.

So yes there are other options.

I might add I paid $3,000 for the Rio 8 years ago. Paid $5,000 for the Vibe 2 years ago.

dtknowles
01-10-2016, 12:54 PM
Please do not think I'm arguing with you in any way, but I drive a 2005 Pontiac Vibe made by Toyota that gets 35+ MPG on the highway, and yes a wheelchair fits in the back, without folding down the rear seats, I've done it, taking disabled vets to the VA.

Furthermore my wife drives a KIA Rio, 2003 that gets 39 MPG on the highway. And she has transported her mother and put a wheel chair in the trunk with the trunk lid closed. No the rear seats do not fold down on the Rio.

So yes there are other options.

I might add I paid $3,000 for the Rio 8 years ago. Paid $5,000 for the Vibe 2 years ago.

Clearly you are not doing your part to stimulate the economy and create jobs, those cars need to be scraped and you need to stop buying used cars. (purple font again).

(now for the not purple font stuff) thanks for helping other vets.

Tim

snowwolfe
01-10-2016, 01:27 PM
I am failing the oil industry as well since we departed our beloved Alaska. Recently made a 550 mile trip to PA and it cost me $20.82 one way in the wife's Camry hybrid

David2011
01-10-2016, 01:40 PM
I am failing the oil industry as well since we departed our beloved Alaska. Recently made a 550 mile trip to PA and it cost me $20.82 one way in the wife's Camry hybrid

So it's much less of an issue than you have suggested anyway. Had you read my last response to you, you would have understood that I was referring to the taxes paid by trickle down earners such as grocery stores, other retailers, car dealers, utility companies and all of the companies that sold something to the the now unemployed workers. I was not talking about direct fuel taxes. I don't mind debating sides of an issue but it does require intellectual honesty. If you're spending such a small amount on gasoline it's not impacting your quality of life as much as you had lead others to believe.

David

William Yanda
01-10-2016, 01:46 PM
Financial adviser on the radio today said low gas prices are worth $750/yr to the average family. 'Course you have to make accommodations for that 1/2 kid.
Bill

snowwolfe
01-10-2016, 02:08 PM
David, you assume way to much and you don't know anything about by personal life or other gas guzzlers that we own including a 4 wheel drive truck and a 35 foot RV that gets about 9 mpg
I don't have to justify to you how much we save by low fuel prices.
Gas prices are very important to me, especially since we are living in our RV as our house is being built and the RV has to be moved often.
Take your know it all attitude somewhere else

starmac
01-10-2016, 06:33 PM
Lots of different ways to look at things and views.

Jwit, while those cars are probably the perfect solution for you and your wife, they might be comepletly useless to someone elses needs.
I don't have a clue what mold makers needs for a vehicle are, other than hauling his grandson, but suspect he probably needs a pickup for other duties as well, and the crew cab needs are for his grandson.

While 35 miles a gallon would be nice, those vehicles would not meet my needs for one, and I could rent a vehicle if I wanted too for road trips cheaper than owning one, if I ever went anywhere I didn't need to haul anything or 4 wheel drive. lol

bdicki
01-10-2016, 07:49 PM
Clearly you are not doing your part to stimulate the economy and create jobs, those cars need to be scraped and you need to stop buying used cars. (purple font again).
Tim
Bring back cash for clunkers.

jcwit
01-10-2016, 08:23 PM
Lots of different ways to look at things and views.

Jwit, while those cars are probably the perfect solution for you and your wife, they might be comepletly useless to someone elses needs.
I don't have a clue what mold makers needs for a vehicle are, other than hauling his grandson, but suspect he probably needs a pickup for other duties as well, and the crew cab needs are for his grandson.

While 35 miles a gallon would be nice, those vehicles would not meet my needs for one, and I could rent a vehicle if I wanted too for road trips cheaper than owning one, if I ever went anywhere I didn't need to haul anything or 4 wheel drive. lol

I agree, however I sure would have the option of something other than a gas guzzler for some transportation. Prior to the Vibe we had 2nd car that was an Escort, rust free, and ran like a top that I had $800 bucks in. It too got close to 40 MPG.

No one knows the other persons situation, but then I'm on a VA disability living high??

starmac
01-10-2016, 08:54 PM
Years ago, we were a one vehicle family and I had a ford PU. My wifes uncle had multiple vehicles, but got hung up on the idea I should have a courier instead. He was a millionare and drove a courier when he didn't need to haul anything, which was fine.
I worked construction and travelled, which meant pulling a travel trailer, I also had a gooseneck trailer, didn't pull it every day, but it sure would not have been an option if all I owned would have been a courier.
Not that your choice is wrong, or even depending on the need if a guy is going to insure and maintain 2 vehicles, a gas sipper is an option, or at least worth considering.
Personally I keep 4 pickups insured, and no gas sippers, I just don't have a reasonable use for one.
My wife drives a pickup to work, and could get by easily with some small car (in the summer) but at less than 10 miles a day it doesn't pencil out to have on the insurance roll, plus I couldn't call her and have her pick up a thousand pounds of parts or so on her way home if I need to. lol

At least once a week, I see somene in a mini van or small pickup, even a car a time or two, out on the log road cutting and hauling what firewood they can. I know folks have to work with what they have, but there is just no way these folks are saveing enough gas to off set the wear and tear they are putting on their gas mizer hauling a wheel barrel load of wood at a time.

bearcove
01-10-2016, 09:02 PM
Yeah I have a F350 K2500 and a suburban all 4WD. Bought my wife a new Honda Odyssey. If it can't work I don't have one. Had some of these at $4.00 a Gal.

dtknowles
01-10-2016, 09:12 PM
Years ago, we were a one vehicle family and I had a ford PU. My wifes uncle had multiple vehicles, but got hung up on the idea I should have a courier instead. He was a millionare and drove a courier when he didn't need to haul anything, which was fine.
I worked construction and travelled, which meant pulling a travel trailer, I also had a gooseneck trailer, didn't pull it every day, but it sure would not have been an option if all I owned would have been a courier.
Not that your choice is wrong, or even depending on the need if a guy is going to insure and maintain 2 vehicles, a gas sipper is an option, or at least worth considering.
Personally I keep 4 pickups insured, and no gas sippers, I just don't have a reasonable use for one.
My wife drives a pickup to work, and could get by easily with some small car (in the summer) but at less than 10 miles a day it doesn't pencil out to have on the insurance roll, plus I couldn't call her and have her pick up a thousand pounds of parts or so on her way home if I need to. lol

At least once a week, I see somene in a mini van or small pickup, even a car a time or two, out on the log road cutting and hauling what firewood they can. I know folks have to work with what they have, but there is just no way these folks are saveing enough gas to off set the wear and tear they are putting on their gas mizer hauling a wheel barrel load of wood at a time.

One small pickup truck load of firewood will be more than I burn in a year. My Frontier only gets 22 mpg and so I think that some bigger trucks get that kind of mileage. I don't like dealing with parking a big truck and most fullsize trucks are very crowded in my garage and driveway. I went for a while without a truck and mostly did not need one. The little Forester SUV was able to deal with everything I needed and a trailer would have been a cheaper way to haul bigger stuff than a second vehicle, got married so a second vehicle made sense.

Back to hauling firewood, even the Forester could haul more than a wheel barrel load at a time (without folding down the seat or putting any on the roof rack.) plus it had 4 wheel drive and wear and tear or maintenance is not that expensive (way less than what I hear from people with big trucks). Back when gas was more than three bucks a gallon its 34 mpg did make a difference. I am a compact 5' 10" and 180 lbs. I fit comfortably in these vehicles.

Tim

bearcove
01-10-2016, 09:27 PM
With my goose neck I do 2 1/2 - 3 cords, a wheelbarrow is about 3 days worth. LOL!

jcwit
01-10-2016, 10:15 PM
Years ago, we were a one vehicle family and I had a ford PU. My wifes uncle had multiple vehicles, but got hung up on the idea I should have a courier instead. He was a millionare and drove a courier when he didn't need to haul anything, which was fine.
I worked construction and travelled, which meant pulling a travel trailer, I also had a gooseneck trailer, didn't pull it every day, but it sure would not have been an option if all I owned would have been a courier.
Not that your choice is wrong, or even depending on the need if a guy is going to insure and maintain 2 vehicles, a gas sipper is an option, or at least worth considering.
Personally I keep 4 pickups insured, and no gas sippers, I just don't have a reasonable use for one.
My wife drives a pickup to work, and could get by easily with some small car (in the summer) but at less than 10 miles a day it doesn't pencil out to have on the insurance roll, plus I couldn't call her and have her pick up a thousand pounds of parts or so on her way home if I need to. lol

At least once a week, I see somene in a mini van or small pickup, even a car a time or two, out on the log road cutting and hauling what firewood they can. I know folks have to work with what they have, but there is just no way these folks are saveing enough gas to off set the wear and tear they are putting on their gas mizer hauling a wheel barrel load of wood at a time.

Somehow I think the roads, even the few dirt county roads we have here in No. Indiana is a far cry from the type of side roads you have up there in the 50th state.

Other than deer hunting in the Black Hills I never seen a log road.

Plus My commute to and from work most of my life was 2 miles round trip. I know few folks have that option, but I did. I never worked construction, most of my life was behind the desk in management.

Guess I've lived a sheltered life.

Gator 45/70
01-11-2016, 01:23 AM
My, My, My,
Never ceases to amaze me about the ignorance and perception of how the oil field operates, Much less ones that are sitting on their rather large derrieres whining and sniveling about the price of oil, Be it high or low, While enjoying rather flabby creature comfort's at our expense Which we do not control BTW! Figure it out for yourselves who does.


Unless your 100% solar and drive a horse and buggy, Then you have my utmost respect, Other than that you pretty much suck egg's.

Been in the mix for 40 years and work for an American company that handed out 6 figure bonus's last year ( You guys who really know what's going on know whom I actually work for)

I invested in oil well's and pipelines, Last year was a bit lean on my return's.
This year, I anticipate my royalty's will surpass my base salary.
Don't bother blaming me, Blame the Saudis and the oil traders in London, They set this up.

jmort
01-11-2016, 01:45 AM
^^^ You are so much better than anyone one else.

Gator 45/70
01-11-2016, 01:49 AM
^^^ You are so much better than anyone one else.

No sir, I've ridden highs and lows before, This is only another dog and pony show complements from outside our borders.

jmort
01-11-2016, 01:58 AM
Have you read this thread? Has your point been discussed earlier in the thread? I believe it has. I am am glad you are doing well, but not everyone is "whining and sniveling" and not everyone is ignorant.

starmac
01-11-2016, 02:14 AM
Tim, the wheel barrow mention was a joke Kind of, and while a wheel barrow load might last you all winter, it doesn't get folks by for ,more than a day or two here, and yes your rig would get some much unneeded wear and tear on our log roads, in fact a light forester is scary on our highways, not saying it is not your best choice for your use.

Gator 45/70
01-11-2016, 02:21 AM
Have you read this thread? Has your point been discussed earlier in the thread? I believe it has. I am am glad you are doing well, but not everyone is "whining and sniveling" and not everyone is ignorant.

Yes, I have, Never named names on anyone, Some do indeed know what's really going on.
My point is in a specific field in the oil business, Mine is production.
Drilling and services are really hurting, I partially noted how the taxing has increased in some areas at the pump.
When we LACT oil it's taxed, When it hits the pipeline, Its taxed again, Refinery's are taxed, By the time fuel hits the pump, More taxes, Big government makes the mother load.
Our lifting cost per barrel would blow some minds here, Much less actual profit.
We only keep our heads above the red line by volume.
Saudis are trying to destroy a U.S. Industry
President Pinocchio does nothing!

missionary5155
01-11-2016, 10:49 AM
Greetings
Still above $3 a gallon down here... commies never pass a chance to collect fees and taxes.
Mike in Peru

snowwolfe
01-11-2016, 12:19 PM
My, My, My,
Never ceases to amaze me about the ignorance and perception of how the oil field operates, Much less ones that are sitting on their rather large derrieres whining and sniveling about the price of oil, Be it high or low, While enjoying rather flabby creature comfort's at our expense Which we do not control BTW! Figure it out for yourselves who does.


Unless your 100% solar and drive a horse and buggy, Then you have my utmost respect, Other than that you pretty much suck egg's.

Been in the mix for 40 years and work for an American company that handed out 6 figure bonus's last year ( You guys who really know what's going on know whom I actually work for)

I invested in oil well's and pipelines, Last year was a bit lean on my return's.
This year, I anticipate my royalty's will surpass my base salary.
Don't bother blaming me, Blame the Saudis and the oil traders in London, They set this up.

Do you think any of us "ignorant" egg suckers are going to feel guilty because we get to keep more money in our pockets because you might not get your 6 figure bonus this year?

dtknowles
01-11-2016, 12:24 PM
Yes, I have, Never named names on anyone, Some do indeed know what's really going on.
My point is in a specific field in the oil business, Mine is production.
Drilling and services are really hurting, I partially noted how the taxing has increased in some areas at the pump.
When we LACT oil it's taxed, When it hits the pipeline, Its taxed again, Refinery's are taxed, By the time fuel hits the pump, More taxes, Big government makes the mother load.
Our lifting cost per barrel would blow some minds here, Much less actual profit.
We only keep our heads above the red line by volume.
Saudis are trying to destroy a U.S. Industry
President Pinocchio does nothing!

What is it you think the President Pinocchio should do?????

Tim

blackthorn
01-11-2016, 12:41 PM
From my perspective, any major fluctuation in primary resource prices has either a negative or positive impact on everyone of us! It does not matter if the resource is oil, timber/lumber, fish, farm produce, mining etc., we are all eventually affected by that impact. Oil is one of, if not the, most noticeable because almost everything we do, buy, sell, heat, move etc. requires the use of petroleum products at some point in time. Are low oil prices good for the consumer? Yes they are! Are low oil prices good for the overall economy? Not so much! In general terms, the reduction in revenue to all levels of government, both direct and indirect, will (eventually) have a negative effect on the services (yeah I know--oxymoron right?) they provide. Like many here we live on a fixed income, so anything that lowers our living cost is a thing to be enjoyed while it lasts. In the long term, this too shall pass.

jcwit
01-11-2016, 02:37 PM
As I said way back in my post on the 1st page


As with most things in this world there pluses and there minuses.

For my personal pocketbook it's nice, but then for others not so good.

Actually right here where I live it's great as the RV industry is gang busters.

Myself, I like it, and I'm guessing for most of us on a fixed income it is a Blessing. But for every action there is a reaction, and for those it hurts their pocketbook.

But there is nothing I can do about it other than be greatful for now.

Tenbender
01-11-2016, 11:29 PM
$1.66 here today. :grin:

bob208
01-11-2016, 11:54 PM
2.05 today. yes I like it. makes my pension check go farther.

Tenbender
01-14-2016, 03:16 PM
Bought some today $1.64

dragon813gt
01-14-2016, 03:20 PM
Saw it for $1.97 this morning. Never thought I would see it below $2 in PA.

DerekP Houston
01-14-2016, 03:23 PM
1.49 in Houston and no end in sight. Lots of projects on hold due to the fluctuation and fears.

jmort
01-14-2016, 03:33 PM
$1.57 here in the Ozarks

rosewood
01-14-2016, 03:46 PM
Good for the bank account, terrible for the 401k.

AK Caster
01-14-2016, 03:53 PM
Saw it for $1.97 this morning. Never thought I would see it below $2 in PA.

Seen the same price between Uniontown and Connesville. Drove through VA the day before and $1.52 was the lowest we noticed. Loving it every time we fill up the tanks.

Down South
01-14-2016, 10:40 PM
Enjoy the low prices while they last. I do and I have worked in the oil ang gas industry for 32 years.
I have not read past the first few posts and I know people are enjoying the low fuel prices and I am glad for them.
As I did read in a couple posts, some realize the impact this has put on "Our Oil and Gas Industry".
The oil patch is really a small world where one who has been there as long as I have know many across many companies. Thousands have lost their jobs, many that I have known for over 30 years are unemployed now, older and trying to find work. 2016 appears to be another bad year for the oil industry. We will loose many more before this is over unless something drastic happens which none of us want to see.
What may don't understand is the domino effect this will create across the country. The loss of jobs, the cut backs, etc. This first affects the oilfield workers then the service companies, the supply companies. The effect then rolls on to the retailers affecting income across the board. Even down to the mom and pop store owner, profit will be down because of the loss of jobs and reduced spending or in many cases no spending.
In one way or another it will affect you regardless of what business that you are in.
It would take me writing a book to try to explain this.
All I can say is, the oil prices need to go back up to around to $60-$65 per barrel for all of us to reach a point that we can deal with.. Like Forrest Gump said, That's all that I have to say about that.

Enjoy while we try to keep things afloat and keep people working.

starmac
01-14-2016, 10:51 PM
An article in yesterdays anchorage paper, had BP saying they had already cut 4,000 jobs and would cut 4,000 more soon, at least by mid year.
That is from one company, most of these jobs were in the lower 48, but they said they would cut Alaska manpower by 13 percent this spring, they probably cut it that much or more last fall.

It affects everybody in Ak, as the state lives on oil, if it stays down as low and long as it has been predicted, Alaska will learn what Texas did in the 80's, well hopefully they will learn.

AK Caster
01-15-2016, 09:36 AM
Oil dipped below $30 today :) Great news for us consumers. I just don't see any downside to this for the average consumer who doesn't have a oil related job. Checked our 401K today and it was up 1% since October. Win win for the average retiree.

rosewood
01-15-2016, 10:47 AM
Oil dipped below $30 today :) Great news for us consumers. I just don't see any downside to this for the average consumer who doesn't have a oil related job. Checked our 401K today and it was up 1% since October. Win win for the average retiree.

Need to know what you are invested in. All of our investment options are down -5%+ this year and ended -2% last year. It is sucking wind. Oil prices are dragging down the market as well as the turmoil in the middle east. The Dow Jones is down over 1500 points in the last several months. That isn't good for any of us.

I can definitely see Down South's reasoning. The oil industry is big and job loss can have a huge affect on other parts of the economy. Then what happens when demand and cost go back up? The industry will be struggling to get back up to speed which will affect us also. I bet the Big O sees the job loss in the Oil industry and laughs.

mold maker
01-15-2016, 12:32 PM
Just wondering, when gas was so high, how many of you lost your jobs because of it?

Not directly, but in 07 I was forced to early retirement, after almost 40 years in the plastics ind. High oil prices made us no longer competitive on the world market.
At 64.5 with only skills in a dead industry, there was no use looking.
We were a 290+ employer, and I wasn't the only older member.

jcwit
01-15-2016, 01:16 PM
Just wondering, when gas was so high, how many of you lost your jobs because of it?

Thousands here in No. Indiana.

AK Caster
01-15-2016, 01:20 PM
Need to know what you are invested in.

No secret stocks, just a government TSP account split evenly into three ways with their G,F and 2020 funds. Certainty not investment grade stuff but making 1% in the last 3.5 months is better than losing any. Transferred it all over to safe stuff when I started drawing social security and the DOW closed around 18,000.
I ain't losen any money and my cost of living is going down. No complaints. Every time I guess up the truck save enough to buy another pound of powder. Getting a nice supply in for the next shortage.

Will add pretty much everyone around where I live is tickled pink at these lower gas prices and that includes young and old alike.

David2011
01-15-2016, 03:20 PM
I'm afraid we're watching the entire US economy crash and not just the oil industry. My 401K and other investments are down horribly over the last 3 months as are those of many others. The stock market is taking a big hit this morning in anticipation of Obummer's Iran deal dumping a huge reserve onto the open market. The Iranian oil has been in storage for so long that they can afford to dump it at a lower price than any other seller and still feel an influx of cash.

In the '80s I saw people that had nothing to do with oil go bankrupt because their customers suddenly had no spare money. The customers may have had nothing to do with oil either but somewhere down the chain of money flow someone did.

Lubbock, TX and Roswell, NM are not oil towns but they are both close enough to oil towns that many of the oilfield workers live in those towns. When they lose some of their income or lose their jobs entirely the loss of income trickles through the entire community.

Refer back to the posts of Down South and Starmac in six months and see if they were right.

David

AK Caster
01-15-2016, 03:25 PM
Let the chips fall where they may.

dragon813gt
01-15-2016, 03:38 PM
The oil industry isn't the only industry in the US. For a lot of them their sole tie to it is shipping costs. So if oil is low their shipping costs are lower meaning they make more money. Let's use UPS as an example of this. How are low oil prices going to hurt them or their workers? The oil industry isn't the end all be all in all parts of the country. I can't see how the price is going to negatively effect the Tech industry.

snowwolfe
01-15-2016, 04:01 PM
I'm afraid we're watching the entire US economy crash and not just the oil industry.
David

Yes, and this is when the people who are heavy into the stock market start screaming how this is now a good time to buy:) Might start looking for some bargains myself if (when) the DOW dumps another 1,500 or 2,000 points.

marlin39a
01-15-2016, 04:15 PM
Yes, it feels good to fill up so cheaply here, 1.89 gallon. However, the prices are under normal and are dragging the economy down.

AK Caster
01-15-2016, 05:25 PM
Seems to be a lot of people enjoying their new founded wealth:)
http://www.walleyecentral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=510281&page=6

shooter93
01-15-2016, 07:09 PM
I don't like to see anyone out of work and it is worse for long term employees who are older. I can assure you though that in the building industry millions of jobs were lost or severely cut back....not just thousands. Smaller builders compromise the majority of the work being done and they were devastated. Even those of us that have weathered the storm have been cut back drastically while the daily living costs escalated. It hasn't been fun. Now toss in the elderly and lower income people and the break in fuel costs is a very welcome occurrence. The building industry is one of the largest segments of our economy. Much larger than people realize and far bigger than the auto industry. From mining to finishing products all were cut back. Even major appliances most of which are going in to new houses or remodel jobs. This will stabilize like everything else but that is what we truly need....stable....not the huge swings up and down.

MtGun44
01-15-2016, 07:47 PM
I doubt we see oil over $30-40 for the next 5 years, maybe longer. Fracking technology
is the geni out of the bottle, a whole lot of oil is now technologically available that
was not 10-20 years ago.

I feel for the folks out of work, but the market is pretty brutal. The efficient
companies will do the best, the inefficient ones will do worse. The foreign
suppliers, especially Russia are just sucking wind with these prices, but cannot
cut production. Russia makes the great majority of all the money that the govt
gets from selling oil, they are near broke. OPEC seems to be close to the same
situation, need the revenue, so unwilling to cut production. Most of those
governments are monumentally corrupt, so they need billions and billions to
keep afloat...... and it isn't coming in anymore, so they aren't willing (at least
now) to cut production to earn even less money to try to prop up prices.

Reports are that there is at least a year or more oil in excess in storage
around the world, so that makes it especially painful for OPEC to try to
lower production to cause a shortage to get the prices back up. It will
take a long time to burn through the stored oil, and most corrupt oil
gov'ts can't "hold their breath" that long.

Best wishes to US oil workers, huge factors in play here. Tech advances
mean more oil for us, but the cost is lowered prices, which is a whiplash
to the very folks that created the new technology, unfortunately.

Bill

ProfGAB101
01-15-2016, 09:27 PM
I have a 82 round trip commute to get to town.

When my full time job was restructured to a 29hr part time position it hurt, especially losing the company paid heath care now coming out of my pocket. ( Strangely the company still offered 401K matching. )

@ 19mpg that's a 4.3 gal commute which @ a peak price of $4.079/gal cost me $17.54 per trip ( or workday ).

As a now part timer - no one wants to finance you. So that 19mpg will continue until it drops to 17mpg from old age wear and tear.

Currently @ $1.699/gal the commute costs only $7.31. That $10+ a day savings is the only thing keeping me afloat. If prices went back to $3+ I'd have to sell the ranch and move.

Down South
01-15-2016, 09:45 PM
We are pulling in our vendors now requesting "More" price cuts. I manage +- 50 contracts with that many companies.
I have spoken to many of our vendors and the requested price cuts puts them below the their profit margin which means lay offs and/or reduced salaries for their employees. Many, if salary cuts, 10% or more across the board. Many others will join the unemployment ranks.
Our office staff will start taking a cut by months end or next month. I'm trying to protect my people and keep them working but it's going to be a tough job.
Since we have shut down ongoing projects, planned future projects and looking for cost reduction in every area possible, it will cause many job losses.
I won't go into detail about the problems that I am facing as a manager but it is not good. Every day, I have to look at my people in their eyes and I can see the uncertainty, people who have families, bills to pay, kids in school, etc.
I'm older now and financially stable. The market dump has effected my 401 accounts as many others here have posted. My nest egg has been hit pretty hard too.
When it comes down to cutting my people, I'll take the cut. I can make it.

starmac
01-15-2016, 10:22 PM
I doubt we see oil over $30-40 for the next 5 years, maybe longer. Fracking technology
is the geni out of the bottle, a whole lot of oil is now technologically available that
was not 10-20 years ago.

I feel for the folks out of work, but the market is pretty brutal. The efficient
companies will do the best, the inefficient ones will do worse. The foreign
suppliers, especially Russia are just sucking wind with these prices, but cannot
cut production. Russia makes the great majority of all the money that the govt
gets from selling oil, they are near broke. OPEC seems to be close to the same
situation, need the revenue, so unwilling to cut production. Most of those
governments are monumentally corrupt, so they need billions and billions to
keep afloat...... and it isn't coming in anymore, so they aren't willing (at least
now) to cut production to earn even less money to try to prop up prices.

Reports are that there is at least a year or more oil in excess in storage
around the world, so that makes it especially painful for OPEC to try to
lower production to cause a shortage to get the prices back up. It will
take a long time to burn through the stored oil, and most corrupt oil
gov'ts can't "hold their breath" that long.

Best wishes to US oil workers, huge factors in play here. Tech advances
mean more oil for us, but the cost is lowered prices, which is a whiplash
to the very folks that created the new technology, unfortunately.

Bill

I doubt you will ever see any fracking done till oil approaches 100 bucks again, plenty of new tech, but it isn't cheap.
Once it does come back up, like always it will take a year or two before it gets off the ground again, if it is down as long as predicted.

ratitude
01-15-2016, 10:28 PM
Diesel is $1.63 here in my little town. Unbelievable.

Down South
01-15-2016, 11:20 PM
Diesel is $1.63 here in my little town. Unbelievable.
I tanked up today at Buc-eeys at Baytown Tx. Gas was $1.529. Diesel was $1.429. My wife said, we can afford to drive our one ton duel rear wheel diesel truck again. I replied, yes, we can. As said in my previous posts, I'm hoping everyone is enjoying the low fuel prices. I am. But, I have to look at the flip side of the coin and see what the low fuel prices are the result of.

dtknowles
01-15-2016, 11:45 PM
It ain't the people buying gas that put the screws to the oil patch.

Tim

FISH4BUGS
01-15-2016, 11:48 PM
Diesel is $1.63 here in my little town. Unbelievable.

I have driven a Mercedes Diesel of one model or another for over 30 years. I used to do 50,000 miles per year. I sold my last one with 415,000 on it and it still ran like a top. Did not burn a drop of oil.
Diesel used to be cheap. Then taxes were added. Then all of it went up.
I was on the NY Throughway shuffling off to Buffalo when it was at the peak of the diesel prices.
I paid $5.05 per gallon. Now look.....$1.63. That really puts it into perspective.

Bman1954
01-16-2016, 12:10 AM
The price of a barrel of oil went under $30 today .Possibly on the way to $20 .This should scare us all.Currencys around the world are crashing.Commodities are in free fall and there was a time this week not a single frieighter was on the Atlantic.There is a worldwide currency war going on which is a race to the bottom.Central banks have lost control and can only print more fiat money.This will not end well.I see hyper inflation on the horizon. Craig

William Yanda
01-16-2016, 12:23 AM
I saw $2.04 today. Wouldn't you know I bought gas yesterday at another outlet of the same brand for $2.19.

dtknowles
01-16-2016, 12:30 AM
The price of a barrel of oil went under $30 today .Possibly on the way to $20 .This should scare us all.Currencys around the world are crashing.Commodities are in free fall and there was a time this week not a single frieighter was on the Atlantic.There is a worldwide currency war going on which is a race to the bottom.Central banks have lost control and can only print more fiat money.This will not end well.I see hyper inflation on the horizon. Craig

Prices dropping is not hyper inflation it is deflation. The Yen, Pound, Euro and the Dollar are all trading in a fairly narrow range. Within 25 percent of historical averages. It is the third world countries and the BRIC's that are taking a pounding.

If you see hyperinflation on the horizon, what are you doing to prepare?

Tim

Bman1954
01-16-2016, 08:48 AM
First you will see deflation.Then the money printing will start which will cause the hyper inflation.The US dollar right now is strong,probably too strong.This makes selling US products what little we produce expensive overseas.We buy most of the goods we consume from overseas with money we print(world reserve currency).At some point those dollars will come home .There is only 2 things that are real money,gold and silver.It might be a good idea to hold some cash for the short term and gold and silver as insurance long term.Right now I can not think of any country that will buy US treasury bonds which fund our deficit spending.We also have a lot of these bonds outstanding which will be cashed in at some point.I hope I am 100% wrong but this is how I see it. Craig

pmer
01-16-2016, 12:24 PM
I have to admit I'm new to watching the markets but all OPEC wants to do is take out the higher cost producers. To them it's just business. Of the top 5 oil producers just two are in OPEC so they aren't going to have the market control they once had. I'm glad OPEC doesn't have a tight grip on price control and I hope other countries don't join them. Gabon and Ecuador and Indonesia left or suspended but Indonesia came back this year. OPEC isn't making a ton of money either but they'll try to keep their current strategy till past the second quarter.

I love these lower prices too and the American producers with the lowest debt will have the best chance to get to the end of this price war.

rockrat
01-16-2016, 12:59 PM
Would be nice if Groceries, cars, health insurance and car insurance would follow gas prices.

bnelson06
01-16-2016, 01:16 PM
When they are down yes but on the up swing that would be a disaster.

dtknowles
01-16-2016, 02:01 PM
First you will see deflation.Then the money printing will start which will cause the hyper inflation.The US dollar right now is strong,probably too strong.This makes selling US products what little we produce expensive overseas.We buy most of the goods we consume from overseas with money we print(world reserve currency).At some point those dollars will come home .There is only 2 things that are real money,gold and silver.It might be a good idea to hold some cash for the short term and gold and silver as insurance long term.Right now I can not think of any country that will buy US treasury bonds which fund our deficit spending.We also have a lot of these bonds outstanding which will be cashed in at some point.I hope I am 100% wrong but this is how I see it. Craig

Craig, what are you doing to prepare for what you predict? You seem to suggest buying gold and silver. Are you doing that? Why don't you think equities are a good hedge against inflation? The value of a strong company's assets would appreciate with inflation. How about real estate?

If economic collapse was to accompany this predicted hyper inflation then would even Gold or Silver hold their value, maybe something more staple like Sugar or Vegetable Oil might be the only things that would hold their value.

Do you have a background in Economics or have you studied Economics? Have been spending a lot of time reading WND or Zero Hedge?

Tim

Bman1954
01-16-2016, 02:21 PM
Tim
I'm not an economist nor do I do a lot of reading on sites like zero hedge.Gold and silver seem to have survived economic uncertain times for centuries.I do hold some gold and silver as insurance.Not a bad idea to have food on hand as you suggest,land I think would be good also.In 2008 I did not follow the market and lost a lot of money.Back then it was more a corporate problem,this time it's global.I am retired now and can't afford to lose anymore.I hope we ride this out alright and I' m open to any suggestions. Craig

AK Caster
01-16-2016, 02:40 PM
Don't have any sympathy for anyone investing in the stock market. All it is gambling the price you pay will increase when you sell. I owned stocks in the past as well and still do. But everyone knows there is no sure thing. If you lose money don't come crying.
Put your big boy pants on and weather the storm whether it be stocks, oil, precious metals, etc.
Sometimes we win a gamble, sometimes we lose.

TXGunNut
01-16-2016, 02:58 PM
Back on track I've been driving past two oil/gas well drilling sites for the last week or so, good to see someone feeling optimistic.
I'm still pretty bullish on equities as well, did my 2016 contribution this week and still have some cash that I need to use to take advantage of this dip. I lost a fair bit of ground these past few weeks but if you can't handle that you don't need to be in today's market. I don't have retirement checks to look forward to so I have to be pretty aggressive with my investments. Will probably be looking pretty hard at the oil & gas sector.

onceabull
01-16-2016, 03:07 PM
Personally I have the same amount of sympathy for the Petro industry as I did for the "No Doc." lenders from the last real estate BOOM..Prepare for the Politicos to use your $ and credit to bail out whatever "friends" of theirs held stock and/or debt in " HereThere or Somewhere Oil & Gas"..... Onceabull

smokeywolf
01-16-2016, 03:31 PM
Even with oil hovering around $30.00 per barrel, gas in Kali is over $3.00/gal in a lot of places. Much of the difference in Kali prices and national averages are thanks to Demtard politicians using inflated fuel taxes to fund governor turd's useless high speed rail to nowhere and the foreign criminals and their children who flock to Kali's sanctuary cities.

dragon813gt
01-16-2016, 04:39 PM
Even with oil hovering around $30.00 per barrel, gas in Kali is over $3.00/gal in a lot of places. Much of the difference in Kali prices and national averages are thanks to Demtard politicians using inflated fuel taxes to fund governor turd's useless high speed rail to nowhere and the foreign criminals and their children who flock to Kali's sanctuary cities.

PA has the highest fuel taxes and we are right around $2. I paid $1.94 at Costco today and the gas stations at home are $2.08. Your fuel taxes aren't what's keeping prices so high.

dtknowles
01-16-2016, 06:18 PM
Tim
I'm not an economist nor do I do a lot of reading on sites like zero hedge.Gold and silver seem to have survived economic uncertain times for centuries.I do hold some gold and silver as insurance.Not a bad idea to have food on hand as you suggest,land I think would be good also.In 2008 I did not follow the market and lost a lot of money.Back then it was more a corporate problem,this time it's global.I am retired now and can't afford to lose anymore.I hope we ride this out alright and I' m open to any suggestions. Craig

Craig

I pointed to WND and Zero Hedge because they are hyper inflation doomsayers and I thought you might have fallen for their sales pitch.

Equities, precious metal and Real Estate are the typical hedge against inflation. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. If you really think that inflation is really going to take off, borrow whatever you can at mortgage rates or lower and by Real Estate or capital equipment because their prices will skyrocket with hyper inflation. If you can, make the loans assumable or transferable as when inflation is high, interest rates climb too.

I also suggest you don't do what I just explained as we are not going to see hyper inflation and if we see deflation you would be stuck with the property and loans.

When I mentioned sugar and vegetable oil, I did not mean for personal consumption, I meant tons like hundreds of thousands of dollars worth because with hyper inflation people still want to eat and they both are easier to store than grains and less susceptible to spoilage and pests. Oh, you can make Rum from sugar.

Tim

Tim

onceabull
01-16-2016, 07:28 PM
One might remember that the Hebrews who made it to safety during the 1930's and early 40's were not carrying much in the way of gold or silver,,,Diamonds ,Yes.. oh, yeah,you can get ardent spirits from lots of different fruits,vegetables,and weeds, Yeast is in the air,sugar a tad more difficult unless you can find some bees to rob..22 Rimfire,and crowd popular centerfire in both rifle and pistol will likely be worth having as trade goods,in either wildly deflationary or inflationary times...Not ever wise to go "all in" on any one form of anything... fwiw, Onceabull

project
01-16-2016, 10:03 PM
I doubt you will ever see any fracking done till oil approaches 100 bucks again, plenty of new tech, but it isn't cheap.
Once it does come back up, like always it will take a year or two before it gets off the ground again, if it is down as long as predicted.

Fracking is still being done every day. It has slowed down but not stopped.

starmac
01-16-2016, 10:35 PM
Fracking is still being done every day. It has slowed down but not stopped.

In what part of the country will any new fracking be done, I know several oil companies, if not all have shelved any future projects, just finishing the ones already underway.

David2011
01-16-2016, 11:11 PM
In what part of the country will any new fracking be done, I know several oil companies, if not all have shelved any future projects, just finishing the ones already underway.

Fracking is alive and well in the Permian Basin (Wes Texas and SE New Mexico.) Business has slowed, of course, but the trucks roll every day.

David

project
01-16-2016, 11:21 PM
It's the drilling that's quickly coming to a stop.

starmac
01-17-2016, 01:06 AM
It's the drilling that's quickly coming to a stop.

Don't they generally drill before they frack??
Is the drilling in the permian basin working what was already on the books, or are they targeting more, I haven't loked at the rig count, but talk to friends in Texas pretty regular, and the oil patch is slowing down to a crawl in places, I suspect it will also hit the permian basin.

Down South
01-17-2016, 11:03 AM
Don't they generally drill before they frack??
Is the drilling in the permian basin working what was already on the books, or are they targeting more, I haven't loked at the rig count, but talk to friends in Texas pretty regular, and the oil patch is slowing down to a crawl in places, I suspect it will also hit the permian basin.

That is correct. There are a few jobs being completed that were already on the books. By far, most of the drilling and fracking are coming to an end.

AK Caster
01-17-2016, 11:50 AM
Down another 5 cents a gallon where we live:)))) Now I am hoping the market loses another few thousand points in the coming weeks then will feel comfortable picking up some stocks.

blackthorn
01-17-2016, 12:58 PM
Quote "Yeast is in the air,sugar a tad more difficult unless you can find some bees to rob."

You can also grow sugar beets. Makes good moonshine! Don't ask how I know.

pmer
01-17-2016, 02:36 PM
Here in east central MN.

Diesel $2.05
Gas $1.63
E85 $1.29

David2011
01-17-2016, 03:46 PM
Don't they generally drill before they frack??
Is the drilling in the permian basin working what was already on the books, or are they targeting more, I haven't loked at the rig count, but talk to friends in Texas pretty regular, and the oil patch is slowing down to a crawl in places, I suspect it will also hit the permian basin.

I'm not on the business side of the industry but from what I hear, first hand from management, the Permian is at about 1/3 of its 2014 level which was a record year. At the same time, I see rigs drilling new holes every time I go out away from town so there is clearly still some drilling going on. I have friends involved in both cementing and fracturing and hear first hand from them what they're doing. I'm not saying it's rosy. It's pretty grim and it HAS affected every business in the Permian Basin.

David

rancher1913
01-17-2016, 04:04 PM
I was doing cementing and fracking for a very large company and they have pretty much shut the doors, luckily I got transferred to the coil tubing side of the company and we are hit and miss for work, most of our work is on new wells that were started before the markets went down and we are heavily discounting jobs just to have work. we just did a drill out of a horizontal well--about 1400 feet with 25 sleeves, normally the ticket would be for 65 grand, we are now doing it for 18 grand.

daniel lawecki
01-17-2016, 07:10 PM
Gas in NW Ohio down the road from my house $1.28.

onceabull
01-18-2016, 09:10 PM
What goes around does come around,as we watch the "pure" refiner/marketers (VLO,TSO) reap the bennies of getting out of the integrated O/G Biz. Ups/downs for then since then,of course, but the present situation must seem like a wet dream to management... Onceabull

starmac
01-19-2016, 02:30 AM
Well Ohummer wanted the price of gas/oil to get so high that folks couldn't afford it to help his GREEN aganda, this is sure throwing a monkey wrench in his plans. So there is a good thing coming out of this, besides a cheap tank of gas.

rosewood
01-19-2016, 07:46 AM
Here in east central MN.

Diesel $2.05
Gas $1.63
E85 $1.29

Wow, E85 around here has always been about the same as regular gas, that is why it hasn't caught on. Less go for your buck with E85.

mold maker
01-19-2016, 04:15 PM
100 petrol gasoline is almost non-existent here, except +.15 at full-service stations.
Soon everyone will stop being conservative with their driving and then the price will go back up.

AK Caster
01-20-2016, 03:03 PM
Finally dropped below $2 a gallon here in taxavania (PA). First time in many months I had 4 cars in front of me at the gas station.
Gotta love it. Now if only the DOW drops down to the low 14,000 range and then it will be time to look for some good bargains.

dragon813gt
01-20-2016, 03:21 PM
You must live in the wrong part of the state. It's been below $2 in the SE for over a week ;) :laugh:

Down South
01-20-2016, 08:13 PM
Talking to a vendor today. I haven't checked the numbers to see if he was correct but he claimed that oilfield related job loss is 500,000 at present, That's 1/2 million folks out of work due to low oil prices.
6 months from now I expect that to increase another 250,000, maybe more.

Down South
01-20-2016, 08:19 PM
I took this Picture Monday at Buc-ees. Nice on the pocketbook but I wonder if I will still have a job by the end of next month to be able to enjoy the low prices.

MT Gianni
01-20-2016, 08:22 PM
Not just you the entire economy is built around our resources and we could all be in for some hard times. If anyone doesn't think so follow the stock market and it follows oil. Those in the Market are those who hire and fire and add on jobs.

waksupi
01-20-2016, 08:53 PM
Although petrol sector will loose some jobs, putting more money in the pocket of the consumer should create a market for other goods in other sectors, thus, creating new jobs. Everyone needs to take a turn making a buck.

fatnhappy
01-20-2016, 10:03 PM
How many of you old timers remember people complaining about low energy prices were ruining the economy in the 50s? Yeah, that's what I thought.

The entire economy benefits from the low cost of energy. Everything from granny on social security to America's farm industry. You pay for high oil prices in everything from the roast beef for dinner to the precision cut boolit mould. As a whole we benefit tremendously from low energy costs.

dtknowles
01-20-2016, 10:08 PM
I think I have a solution to low oil prices. We bomb Saudi oil wells. Russia, Iran, and Venezuela will be very happy but our Japanese and European allies won't like it nor will China. At least then we could get back to fracking.

Tim

bangerjim
01-21-2016, 01:04 AM
These low gas prices = low oil prices = a crashing stock market.

How 'ya like them apples?

Not me.

banger

MtGun44
01-21-2016, 02:53 AM
Last time the claim was that high energy prices would run all
company's stocks down due to them spending so much on
energy.

But somehow, companies saving money on energy is going to
hurt them, too.

Not buying it. More money in people's pockets will let them buy
more stuff and the suppliers will do better.

starmac
01-21-2016, 04:55 AM
The govt makes more money off of oil than anybody, so this will either slow down some gimme projects, or some folks will get some overtime printing money.
Theire will be lots of business hurt from oil hitting bottom besides oil related businesses, some will see some gains, but most still have to have customers, with a little scrath in their pockets. I saw an article where the auto makers are looking at a lean couple of years, I betting they are not the only ones.

Blackpowder
01-21-2016, 05:31 AM
In Sweden the gas price is 12,20 Swedish Kronor for 1 Liter.
This is about 5,38 US Dollars for one Gallon.
More than 60% is straight tax.
I am not complaining though, I have enough Money to feed my family and by all the gunpowder I need :)

daniel lawecki
01-21-2016, 07:04 AM
Was a $1.28 filled up at $1.32 yesterday.

AK Caster
01-21-2016, 11:10 AM
Last time the claim was that high energy prices would run all
company's stocks down due to them spending so much on
energy.

But somehow, companies saving money on energy is going to
hurt them, too.

Not buying it. More money in people's pockets will let them buy
more stuff and the suppliers will do better.

Agreed. I am sure all the shipping companies (UPS, FedEx, etc) and truckers hauling freight hate the idea of low fuel prices. Then we have all the companies that make plastics. And don't forget all the tire companies and companies that sell petro products such as motor oils.

Stock market going down? Suck it up. There are no sure bets on the casino floor. Investors have become an interesting lot. So many claim their portfolio is "aggressive" but then whine like a baby when they lose money.

dtknowles
01-21-2016, 11:12 AM
These low gas prices = low oil prices = a crashing stock market.

How 'ya like them apples?

Not me.

banger

Did you really mean low gas prices drive down oil prices? I think that is wrong, low demand for oil drives to make gas and other petroleum based products drives down oil prices which makes gas cheaper. I know it is a bit of a chicken and egg thing but there has not been a big drop in U.S. gasoline consumption so that is unlikely to be the driver of low oil prices.

Slowing of growth of the developing world it what is driving down stock prices, low oil prices are one of the results, that causes a drop in profits in banks with loans to oil related business and of course a drop in profits in oil exploration companies.

I think your chain of causation is messed up. Not that that matters to those who are being hurt. It is all China's fault :-)

Tim

Tim

dragon813gt
01-21-2016, 11:44 AM
So what, the stock market is down. Hope you have money to invest when it's at the bottom and then ride it back up to the top. No like this hasn't happened many times before.

dtknowles
01-21-2016, 12:32 PM
So what, the stock market is down. Hope you have money to invest when it's at the bottom and then ride it back up to the top. No like this hasn't happened many times before.

How do you pick the bottom?

Tim

snowwolfe
01-21-2016, 01:15 PM
Same way you do the top, guess

bangerjim
01-21-2016, 01:17 PM
Did you really mean low gas prices drive down oil prices? I think that is wrong, low demand for oil drives to make gas and other petroleum based products drives down oil prices which makes gas cheaper. I know it is a bit of a chicken and egg thing but there has not been a big drop in U.S. gasoline consumption so that is unlikely to be the driver of low oil prices.

Slowing of growth of the developing world it what is driving down stock prices, low oil prices are one of the results, that causes a drop in profits in banks with loans to oil related business and of course a drop in profits in oil exploration companies.

I think your chain of causation is messed up. Not that that matters to those who are being hurt. It is all China's fault :-)

Tim

Tim

NO......absolutely not!!!!!!! Common sense: Low gas prices are because of (=) low oil prices which drives the markets down. Gas demand may be down but that and low prices = reduced taxes for city/state/fed. Which leads to even worse roads and bridges. Which leads to higher auto repair bills. Which leads to less $$ in your pockets. Then there are other economic problems created in manufacturing that I will not even get into.

So those on here jumping for joy [smilie=w:over $2 or less gas need to realize that will come back and bit them in the keister big time! Most will never realize those few dollars in their pocket from cheaper gas because they have $10K or more in credit card debt to pay off with that money....not buy more stuff! (I have ZERO).

It is a vicious economic spiral any way you look at it. And the "butterfly effect" is alive and well.

$3/gallon gas is actually a good thing for the economy today.

banger

elkhuntfever
01-21-2016, 01:23 PM
Seeing pictures of gas prices in Houghton Lake Michigan this week. Around 60 cents @ gal.

jcwit
01-21-2016, 02:10 PM
Per GasBuddy.com the current cheapest price of gas at Houghton Lake is $1.30.

That low price only lasted for about a day.

http://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPriceMap

dragon813gt
01-21-2016, 02:16 PM
How do you pick the bottom?

Tim

Same as always, buy in when you feel it's right. Doubt you can time the absolute bottom and absolute top correctly. But that doesn't atop you from buying low and selling high. I've seen this cycle to many times and I'm in my mid thirties. Should be business as usual for you older folks.

dtknowles
01-21-2016, 03:40 PM
Same way you do the top, guess

For me I pick the bottom opposite of how I pick the top. I picked the top last summer, I told my broker to get me out of stocks as there was not enough upside potential to offset the downside risk. I always try to get out of equities well before the next recession. I don't think we are anywhere near the bottom and I think stocks will try to rebound a few times before we truly see the bottom. I find picking the bottom way harder and scarier than trying to pick the top. Nobody ever lost money sell stocks at a profit. Sell when the market is up, don't worry that you might be too early and did not get every last penny on the table. You try that and you will be trying to catch a falling knife.

How to pick the bottom. I wish I knew. Last recession stocks were well off their lows working back up from the bottom before I dared to buy back into equities. While technically this is timing the market which I strongly discourage, I do this just once each business cycle and I consider it just a dramatic rebalancing of my portfolio for the current Risk vs. Opportunity environment.

Tim

dtknowles
01-21-2016, 04:11 PM
Same as always, buy in when you feel it's right. Doubt you can time the absolute bottom and absolute top correctly. But that doesn't atop you from buying low and selling high. I've seen this cycle to many times and I'm in my mid thirties. Should be business as usual for you older folks.

The business cycle I am talking about does not happen very often, at least since Greenspan tried for a soft landing and the activist Fed. If you are in your mid thirties this would only be your second business cycle, the Dot Com Crash was before you were investing and the next cycle was the Great Recession of 2007, hard to imagine you had a lot to invest then but I am sure what you did have was important to you. I expect that we are going to call this business cycle the China Crash or the Commodity Crash or the Oil Bust unless an even more dramatic even occurs. We might actually see a Bear Market without a recession, we are sort of in unprecedented times.

Do not, repeat, do not go by feel, it will screw you eventually. Have a strategy, a plan, a sound conservative approach, execute your plan to the numbers or stay on the sidelines, don't just guess. The bottom, I don't have a plan on how to pick the bottom so I just stay on the sidelines until it is clear that the market has recovered. My broker called me yesterday and was telling me it was time to buy back in. He is fired as soon as I can find someone new. I am not playing in and out and in and out for some correction, I am not getting back into equities until we have a true Bear market business cycle turnaround. If I have to wait years in bonds and fixed income investments, so be it, there is no serious up in the market even at this level and there is still a lot of room for more down.

Tim

Tenbender
01-21-2016, 09:00 PM
Let the market crash. I learned my lesson in 09 when my 401K went bust and I lost my job. What goes up , sooner or later, will come back down. Now the Mexicans and Arabs have all the jobs and only the rich and the fools play in the market.

MT Gianni
01-22-2016, 08:27 PM
How many of you old timers remember people complaining about low energy prices were ruining the economy in the 50s? Yeah, that's what I thought.

The entire economy benefits from the low cost of energy. Everything from granny on social security to America's farm industry. You pay for high oil prices in everything from the roast beef for dinner to the precision cut boolit mould. As a whole we benefit tremendously from low energy costs.
In the 50's we had manufacturing of almost all our goods and a strong export market. How does that compare to today?

rockrat
01-22-2016, 08:46 PM
Oil might be cheap, but keep checking in at Wally World and car parts stores and I don't see prices dropping on engine oils. About the same as when oil was $80/bbl

Down South
01-23-2016, 10:06 PM
Oil might be cheap, but keep checking in at Wally World and car parts stores and I don't see prices dropping on engine oils. About the same as when oil was $80/bbl
Could be they are still selling stock that was purchased at higher oil prices. Could be they are gouging. I really can't speak much about downstream since I work upstream. You are correct in your thinking though. The lower price of oil should reflect on consumer products. But as I said, they could be sitting on a large stock purchased at a higher price and they have to sell that product at their profit margin and perhaps they will be able to drop prices on their next big lubricant purchase.
I can confirm that our lubricant provider has reduced their prices considerably. That is one of the contracts that I manage. They offered reductions in pricing even before we started requesting price reductions.

Frank46
01-24-2016, 12:56 AM
Regular unleaded was 1.59 and diesel was 1.79 when I was in town today. Dumfounded when I saw the prices. What used to cost to fill a 5 gallon container of diesel I can almost fill 2 for the same price. Have 4 empty jugs so going to fill them before prices go back up. Then treat the diesel. The kubota L3800 I have is pretty good on fuel. It's an older model about 2years old. Best decision was to get this one after the so called runs like a deere kept crapping out when I needed it. They made a great marketing decision to include the front end loader with it. Very handy gizmo to have around. Frank

TXGunNut
01-24-2016, 02:20 AM
I took this Picture Monday at Buc-ees. Nice on the pocketbook but I wonder if I will still have a job by the end of next month to be able to enjoy the low prices.

Wharton, TX?

TXGunNut
01-24-2016, 02:27 AM
I think I have a solution to low oil prices. We bomb Saudi oil wells. Russia, Iran, and Venezuela will be very happy but our Japanese and European allies won't like it nor will China. At least then we could get back to fracking.

Tim

Yes, a nice little war will help the oil & gas industry immensely. How many of you want your kids, your neighbor's kids or anyone's kids to die for oil? It's going to happen less than two years from now, mark my words.

starmac
01-24-2016, 05:20 AM
I doubt seriously if we will need to start a war for there to be one, I have a feeling some middle east countries will start a war between themselves.
Price will have to come back up quite a bit to start any fracking, or any rush on drilling. The boom is over for several years, maybe as many as 20, but I imagine the price will get back to a sustainable level and stabilize in a year or so.

FISH4BUGS
01-24-2016, 09:17 AM
Regular unleaded was 1.59 and diesel was 1.79 when I was in town today. Dumfounded when I saw the prices. What used to cost to fill a 5 gallon container of diesel I can almost fill 2 for the same price. Have 4 empty jugs so going to fill them before prices go back up. Then treat the diesel. The kubota L3800 I have is pretty good on fuel. It's an older model about 2years old. Best decision was to get this one after the so called runs like a deere kept crapping out when I needed it. They made a great marketing decision to include the front end loader with it. Very handy gizmo to have around. Frank
I drove mercedes diesels for 35 years. I paid $5.05 on the NY Thruway once at the peak of oil prices. I think it cost me almost $75 to fill the tank.
Today was $1.99. Gotta love it!

Down South
01-24-2016, 10:52 AM
Wharton, TX?
Baytown off of I-10 heading east out of Houston.

parson48
01-24-2016, 02:52 PM
Regular is $1.39 per gal. in Indianapolis this morning! Never thought that I'd see that again.

parson48
01-24-2016, 04:31 PM
Double post. Got excited!!

Hogdaddy
01-24-2016, 05:27 PM
Regular is $1.39 per gal. in Indianapolis this morning! Never thought that I'd see that again.

Nice,, about $ 1.68 here in jax Fl ; )
H/D

rosewood
01-25-2016, 10:49 AM
Aren't most gax taxes based on per gallon? If that is the case, the cost of gas is irrelevant to how much taxes are collected on the sale of gas. With gas prices down, people are more likely to travel and buy more gas and give Uncle Sam more money.

One thing I do wonder though. With the gas prices down, are the carriers, I.e. UPS, Fedex, air lines etc removing the fuel surcharge from their pricing? I bet they have not.

Rosewood

dragon813gt
01-25-2016, 01:33 PM
With the gas prices down, are the carriers, I.e. UPS, Fedex, air lines etc removing the fuel surcharge from their pricing? I bet they have not.

Rosewood

UPS already got called out for this one. They simply changed the name from "Fuel Surcharge" to something else. Same lame excuse about how the charge is still necessary. It's the same w/ any charge, read that as tax. Once implemented it never goes away. And it's never enough so they keep raising it.

starmac
01-25-2016, 02:13 PM
Aren't most gax taxes based on per gallon? If that is the case, the cost of gas is irrelevant to how much taxes are collected on the sale of gas. With gas prices down, people are more likely to travel and buy more gas and give Uncle Sam more money.

One thing I do wonder though. With the gas prices down, are the carriers, I.e. UPS, Fedex, air lines etc removing the fuel surcharge from their pricing? I bet they have not.

Rosewood

You are thinking about the final and road tax, that is paid at the pump. The govt starts making money as as soon as some drilling company has the idea of drilling a well. Then all drilling, service, workover, supply,pipeline,trucking, refineries and the oil companies profits are also taxed. Then every business that sells anything at all to any employee of said businesses (which is most all businesses) profits are taxed, not to mention the income tax that hundreds of tousands of former employees of all affected businesses that the govt is no longer collecting. We are talking billions that the govt is losing at the time and it will only get worse.
I read a few years ago that when north slope oil was selling for 100 bucks a barrel, once the state and feds got their cut the oil companies wound up with 25 bucks a barrel to cover all their expenses, this is before the thousands of hands and all other supporting businesses are taxed.
I don't know about ups, fed ex, etc., bul all truckload carriers fuel surcharge has either dissapeared or reduced to very little, plus their rates are also dropping like rocks because many more trucks are competing for the same hauls.

snowwolfe
01-26-2016, 02:50 PM
Woo hoooo! Gassed up just north of Bristol yesterday for $1.44 for unleaded regular. Life is good:)

Duckiller
01-26-2016, 04:09 PM
What cheap gas? California is paying more than $3.00/gal for gas and about $2.50/gal for diesel. State & fed tax about $0.80/gal. Some how I think California gas cos are making LOTS of money. Maybe it is time to nationalize oil cos , at least in Cal.

jmort
01-26-2016, 04:19 PM
Typically the "big evil" oil companies make around $.06 per gallon. Regulation, taxes, and lack of excess refinery capacity is at the root of the high prices. I am now paying less than half of what I was paying in California. Google it and see for yourself. California blows.

dragon813gt
01-26-2016, 06:09 PM
What cheap gas? California is paying more than $3.00/gal for gas and about $2.50/gal for diesel. State & fed tax about $0.80/gal. Some how I think California gas cos are making LOTS of money. Maybe it is time to nationalize oil cos , at least in Cal.

Your state is behind mine when it comes to taxes. We are under $2. Something is amiss if you're paying that much. You can't blame it on the state and federal taxes.

Geezer in NH
01-26-2016, 07:24 PM
What cheap gas? California is paying more than $3.00/gal for gas and about $2.50/gal for diesel. State & fed tax about $0.80/gal. Some how I think California gas cos are making LOTS of money. Maybe it is time to nationalize oil cos , at least in Cal.

Keep stoping the building of refineries in CA and get to pay for THAT.

starmac
01-27-2016, 02:12 AM
Your state is behind mine when it comes to taxes. We are under $2. Something is amiss if you're paying that much. You can't blame it on the state and federal taxes.
I don't know about California gas, but their fuel is a special blend, your diesel can't be sold there.

Duckkiller, careful about mentioning nationalizing the oil companies, sounds like something that would come out of a hard core liberals mouth.

dragon813gt
01-27-2016, 09:12 AM
I don't know about California gas, but their fuel is a special blend, your diesel can't be sold there.

Would you look at that. Another stupid CARB ruling. Apparently ultra low sulfur diesel isn't good enough. Even though Europe has been running it for a long time. CARB requires extra lubricity.

For anyone interested: http://transportpolicy.net/index.php?title=California:_Fuels:_Diesel_and_Gaso line

I know they have their own refineries. What always causes me to laugh is their octane limits. Can't buy high test like you can here. Nothing like killing performance in a modern turbocharged car.

458mag
01-27-2016, 09:22 AM
What cheap gas? California is paying more than $3.00/gal for gas and about $2.50/gal for diesel. State & fed tax about $0.80/gal. Some how I think California gas cos are making LOTS of money. Maybe it is time to nationalize oil cos , at least in Cal.
I thought everything was already nationalized in the socialist republic of California?

scattershot
01-27-2016, 12:17 PM
$1.63 at my neighborhood station here in Denver. I read in the paper this morning that some doofus wants to raise the gasoline tax here since prices are so low. To me, giving money to politicians is like giving drugs to an addict. Hope nothing comes of it.

montana_charlie
01-27-2016, 03:27 PM
With oil prices below thirty per barrel. our own companies are struggling to stay alive while Saudi is producing enough to keep the price down long enough to (maybe) finish us.
Tehn, while we are trying to stay afloat and gasping for air, here come Iran with all of their oil to be dumped on the market.

I like cheap gas as much as the next guy, but there CAN BE too much of a good thing.

alamogunr
01-27-2016, 06:16 PM
$1.63 at my neighborhood station here in Denver. I read in the paper this morning that some doofus wants to raise the gasoline tax here since prices are so low. To me, giving money to politicians is like giving drugs to an addict. Hope nothing comes of it.

I don't know the reasons behind such a move in Colorado, but here in Tennessee gas tax supports highways. The tax has not been raised in approx 27 years and people are getting much better mileage now than then, which means more traffic and less gas resulting in more wear and less money to maintain. I've seen all highways in my end of the state go from excellent to pot holes in the last 3-4 years. I'm sure that people don't want a gas tax increase but they aren't thinking about not having adequate roads to travel on. If they are allowed to deteriorate much more, companies will start locating in states that support their road system.

rockrat
01-27-2016, 10:38 PM
Seems like most road money here in Colorado gets "Diverted" elsewhere. Or Denver takes it all and leaves very little for the rest of the state. Rest of the state has to put up with roads, the condition of, Denver would never put up with. Or the roads going to the ski areas get fixed, but once you pass them, back to inferior roads. At least thats my opinion

starmac
01-27-2016, 11:29 PM
I am here to tell you they don't need ANY gas tax to fix your roads, the trucks pay enough highway use and road tax for those roads to be slicker than glass.
The reason roads have deteriated in the last ten years or so, si because the states and feds waste much of what isn't diverted. When I started working construction, there would be one inspector for the job, the last highway job I worked has 15, all with state pickups and they each had one little thing to do, that took up sometimes 10 minutes of their day, the rest of the time they sat in the pickup idling it for the air conditioner.
Anytime a road gets widened, or a shoulder built or god forbid a new road, there has to be an environmental study or three, that a lot of the time costs as much or more than the bid on the roadwork.
Anytime someone runs off the road and damages a t-post, the state will send out a pickup with a couple of guys for half a day, then send out a full size dumptruck with 2 or 3 guys to spend half a day replacing it, any teenager raised on a farm or ranch can drive a lmiles worth of t-post a day by himself, hauling them in the back of a 64 ford. lol

snowwolfe
01-28-2016, 04:53 PM
Having just moved from Colorado to Tennessee I can assure you the roads in Tennessee are vastly superior to the roads in Colorado.
Tennessee is obviously doing something right and Colorado is doing something wrong with the gas tax money

rockrat
01-28-2016, 05:47 PM
As said Snowwolfe, just look around Denver. Good roads for the most part on the interstate. Billions spent. Look at other parts of the state and it looks like pennies spent. Colorado wanted a gas tax voted in a few years ago. Word got out(so I heard--take it for what its worth) that out of the 1 Billion the tax was going to raise, 300 million was going to the rest of the state and a few counties, Denver one of them, would get the other 700 million. Didn't pass.

P.O'd the ones in charge, so the roads got even worse.

bearcove
01-28-2016, 05:50 PM
I am here to tell you they don't need ANY gas tax to fix your roads, the trucks pay enough highway use and road tax for those roads to be slicker than glass.
The reason roads have deteriated in the last ten years or so, si because the states and feds waste much of what isn't diverted. When I started working construction, there would be one inspector for the job, the last highway job I worked has 15, all with state pickups and they each had one little thing to do, that took up sometimes 10 minutes of their day, the rest of the time they sat in the pickup idling it for the air conditioner.
Anytime a road gets widened, or a shoulder built or god forbid a new road, there has to be an environmental study or three, that a lot of the time costs as much or more than the bid on the roadwork.
Anytime someone runs off the road and damages a t-post, the state will send out a pickup with a couple of guys for half a day, then send out a full size dumptruck with 2 or 3 guys to spend half a day replacing it, any teenager raised on a farm or ranch can drive a lmiles worth of t-post a day by himself, hauling them in the back of a 64 ford. lol

^^^^^^YEP!^^^^^^

Just need a WO# to charge it to!

starmac
01-30-2016, 04:44 AM
The other forum I frequent is a logging, sawmilling forum. I knew the price of oil has all but closed the pellet plant here, probably hurt others. I also know our sawmill is not selling near as much firewood or lumber, but so far they are still buying logs at the same price, they are filling up fast though. What I didn't expect, but seen on the forum is several wood plants have closed in Georgia, due to the drilling slowdown, I don't know if they were makeing circulation material way over there (wouldn't have thought so) or rigmats or what> I know it affects everybody one way or the other, but hadn't thought it would have affected the wood industy that far east.

John Guedry
01-30-2016, 05:45 PM
Exxon regular, 1.419 right down the road.

Down South
01-30-2016, 09:52 PM
The other forum I frequent is a logging, sawmilling forum. I knew the price of oil has all but closed the pellet plant here, probably hurt others. I also know our sawmill is not selling near as much firewood or lumber, but so far they are still buying logs at the same price, they are filling up fast though. What I didn't expect, but seen on the forum is several wood plants have closed in Georgia, due to the drilling slowdown, I don't know if they were makeing circulation material way over there (wouldn't have thought so) or rigmats or what> I know it affects everybody one way or the other, but hadn't thought it would have affected the wood industy that far east.
Yes, I've briefly tried to explain the the outcome of "too low oil prices" in a few posts way back in this thread.
I've just been sitting back and reading since then. I tried to explain how this would effect most of us regardless if our jobs were oil and gas related or not. I saw many that didn't understand and were appreciative of the low fuel prices at the pump. I would say that we all including myself appreciate lower prices at the pump.
But if you look at the bigger picture, it's not pretty.
In one of or a couple of my previous posts, I mentioned the domino effect. That's what you are seeing with your mills.
BTW, I worked sawmills back in my younger days, almost 10 yrs of it. I was a Millwright. Tough work and long hrs plus a dangerous job. I left when the lumber market bottomed out in the late 70's.
Getting back to the domino effect, unless something happens, 2016 will be one of the worst years that we have seen. Upstream oil has already been hit hard. Midstream and Downstream are tumbling fast. This has a lot of effect on folks that never thought that the low price of oil would ever effect them.
Just like your sawmills, who would ever imaged that low oil prices would effect the lumber markets.

Down South
01-30-2016, 10:21 PM
The other forum I frequent is a logging, sawmilling forum. I knew the price of oil has all but closed the pellet plant here, probably hurt others. I also know our sawmill is not selling near as much firewood or lumber, but so far they are still buying logs at the same price, they are filling up fast though. What I didn't expect, but seen on the forum is several wood plants have closed in Georgia, due to the drilling slowdown, I don't know if they were makeing circulation material way over there (wouldn't have thought so) or rigmats or what> I know it affects everybody one way or the other, but hadn't thought it would have affected the wood industy that far east.
Well, I just lost about 300+ words that I typed. I guess that I need to learn to copy before I post. It was a dang good reply too.
OK, let's try to do it over.

I've made several posts on this thread trying to explain the domino effect that low oil prices would create. This is what is happening at your mills. Some people who never thought low oil prices would affect their jobs are just now starting to realize this.
Upstream oil has already been hit hard. Midstream and downstream are starting to tumble. This will effect many even if they don't realize it. If something doesn't happen, 2016 will be the worst year in most of our lives.
BTW, I worked the sawmills for about 10 yrs back in my younger days. I was a Millwright. The work was hard, the hrs were long and the job was dangerous. I left the market back in the late 70's when the lumber market bottomed out.
Back to the domino effect. I work upstream and we are still cutting hard. We are trying to get our lifting cost down to a point where we might see a profit margin. This affects everything downstream of us. Everything downstream is making cuts to do the same thing, make a profit or go under.

Well Poof, My other post appeared after all. Crappy WiFi here. I'll leave both since I said a few different things.

bearcove
01-30-2016, 10:31 PM
Less work, rather work and pay a bit more.

This much volatility shuts things down.

alamogunr
01-30-2016, 10:56 PM
It is possible that a large number of those applauding low fuel prices may be the ones who start driving more and buying bigger vehicles and becoming a big factor in reducing the oil glut that is apparently responsible for the low prices. The price will go back up if this happens.

The fly in that ointment is the Saudi's. They are reported to be continuing to pump hoping to force domestic suppliers out of business or at least the Canadian tar sands projects. I'm no expert by a long way but it would seem that the very things that produced the glut are also the things that are causing them problems.

I'm continuing to follow this because I'm learning a lot from people that are close to the effect these low prices are causing.

tommag
01-31-2016, 12:02 AM
Normally, low prices affect me negatively. Freight rates are usually determined by fuel costs. The accepted formula is based on 6 mpg. Since I stay in the mid 7s, the higher fuel costs are, the more profit I make. I've heard the truck load guys say their rates are way down. For some reason, the less than truckload brokers I haul for haven't decreased their rates, YET. At the moment, I'm making a better profit than I have in a long time. I anticipate changes soon, but it's been great for the last 8 months. Currently, my cost per mile is under 45% of my gross revenue. One thing I've seen, the volume going into ND is way down. I used to drop 1/4 or so of my loads in ND. Now, I mostly pass through there without stopping.

starmac
01-31-2016, 06:03 AM
ND will probably take the biggest hit, as they have built an enormous infrastructure there that is sitting idle basically.
The oil bust of the 80's hit Texas hard for the some of the same reasons, many folks migrating there from all over the country, then all of a sudden no need for them. I knew of a lot of brand new commercial buildings, that were never occupied and then torn down several years later, because it was cheaper to scrap it than pay taxes on it. There were 40,000 thousand houses a month auctioned off in Harris county alone for a few months, most brought pennies on the dollar.

Very few businesses will not be affected by it, the gold mine my son works for, is one exception so far. There break even price was 653 an ounce, at the price of oil now it is down to around 450, so they are going like gangbusters.

snowwolfe
02-01-2016, 09:21 PM
Well, the low gas prices helped push me over the edge and I just put down a deposit on a new boat. Was going to wait until next year but decided to enjoy it now since it will only cost me about $50 to fill up the 34 gallon tank. Thanks Saudi's!