Lead prices falling, but how low is too low?

[Merick]

What is the deal with metal prices these days? (Or oil or shipping for that matter?) Sure wish I'd stayed awake in class for the deflationary collapse lecture. What am I missing?

[badbob454]

Dont complain shhhhh..........dont let them raise prices

[trapper9260]

Hope it keeps going down .it will make casting easyer to stock up.

[Hickory]

Definition: Deflation is when asset and consumer prices continue to fall. This may seem like a great thing for shoppers, except that the cause for widespread deflation is a long-term drop in demand. That means that a recession is probably already underway, with job losses, declining wages, and an ongoing decline in the value of your home and your stock portfolio. This aggravates deflation, because businesses lower prices in a desperate attempt to sell their goods.

Officially, deflation is measured by a decrease in the Consumer Price Index. However, the CPI does not measure stock prices, which retirees use to fund purchases, and businesses use to fund growth. That means when the stock market drops, the CPI might be missing one important indicator of deflation as it's felt in people's pocketbooks.


For more, see How a Stock Market Crash Can Cause a Recession.


The CPI does not include sales price of homes. Instead, it calculates the "monthly equivalent of owning a home", which it derives from rents. This is very misleading, since rental prices are likely to drop when there is high vacancy, usually when interest rates are low and housing prices are rising. Conversely, when home prices are dropping due to high interest rates, rents tend to increase.


Therefore, the CPI can give a false low reading when home prices are high (and rents are low). This is why it did not warn of asset inflation during the housing bubble of 2006. If it had, then the Federal Reserve could have raised interest rates higher at that time to prevent the bubble, and the resultant pain when the bubble burst in 2007.





Deflation slows economic growth. As prices fall, people put off purchases, hoping they can get a better deal later. You've probably experienced this yourself when thinking about getting a new cell phone, iPad, or TV. You might wait until next year, and get this year's model for less.


This puts pressure on manufacturers to constantly lower prices and come up with new products. That's good for you, but constant cost-cutting means lower wages and less investment spending. That's why only companies with a fanatically loyal following, like Apple, really succeed in this market.


Massive deflation helped turn a recession into the Great Depression. As unemployment rose, demand for goods and services fell. Prices dropped 10% a year. As prices fell, companies went out of business. More people became unemployed. When the dust settled, world trade essentially collapsed. The amount of goods and services traded fell 25%, but thanks to lower prices the value of this trade was down 65% (as measured in dollars).


How Is It Stopped?


To combat deflation, the Fed stimulates the economy with expansionary monetary policy. It reduces the Fed funds rate, buys Treasuries with its open market operations, and uses its other tools to increase the money supply. For more, see Is the Federal Reserve Printing Money?


In addition, our elected officials can offset falling prices with discretionary fiscal policy. That means lowering taxes, increasing government spending, and incurring a temporary deficit to do so. Of course, if the deficit is already at record levels, that tool becomes less available.


Why does expansionary monetary or fiscal policy work? If done correctly, it stimulates demand. People have more money to spend, making them more willing to buy what they want as well as what they absolutely need. They'll stop waiting for prices to fall further. This increase in demand will actually push prices up, reversing the deflationary trend.


Is Deflation Really Worse than Inflation?


The opposite of deflation is inflation, which is when prices rise. Both are very difficult to combat once entrenched. That's because of peoples' expectations, which worsen price trends. When prices rise during inflation, they create an asset bubble. However, this bubble can be burst by central banks raising interest rates.


Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker proved this in the 1980s. He fought double-digit inflation by raising the Fed funds rate to 20% and keeping it there, even though it caused a recession. He had to take this dramatic action to convince everyone that inflation could actually be tamed. Thanks to Volcker, central bankers now know the most important tool in combating inflation, or deflation, is controlling people's expectations of price changes.


Deflation is worse because interest rates can only be lowered to zero. As businesses and people feel less wealthy, they spend less, reducing demand further. Prices drop in response, giving businesses less profit. Once people expect price declines, they delay purchases as long as possible. They know the longer they wait, the lower the price will be. This further decreases demand, causing businesses to slash prices even more. It is a vicious, downward spiral.


Can Deflation Ever Be a Good Thing?


A massive, widespread drop in prices is always bad for the economy. However, deflation in certain asset classes can be good. For example, the price of consumer goods, especially computers and electronic equipment, continues to fall.


This isn't because of lower demand, but from innovation. In the case of consumer goods, production has moved to China, where wages are lower. This is an innovation in manufacturing, which results in lower prices for many consumer goods. In the case of computers, manufacturers find ways to make the components smaller, adding more power for the same price. This is technological innovation, and it keeps computer manufacturers competitive.


Japan: A Modern Example


Japan's economy was caught in a deflationary spiral for the past 20 years. It started in 1989, when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates causing the asset bubble in housing to burst. During that decade, the economy grew less than 2% per year as businesses cut back on debt, spending and lost productivity with excess workers (Japan's culture discourages employee layoffs). The Japanese people are also savers, and when they saw the signs of recession, they stopped spending and put away funds for bad times.


A study by Daniel Okimoto at Stanford University identified five other factors:


The political party in power did not take the difficult steps needed to spur the economy enough.
Taxes were raised in 1997.
Banks kept bad loans on their books, which tied up capital needed to invest in growth.
The yen carry trade kept the value of Japan's currency high relative to the dollar and other global currencies. The Bank of Japan tried to create inflation by lowering interest rates. However, traders took advantage of the situation by borrowing yen cheaply and investing it in currencies with a higher return.
The Japanese government spent heavily, buying dollars to battle the yen carry trade. This created a 200% debt to GDP ratio, which further depressed expectations of economic growth.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/pricing/f/Deflation.htm

[Petrol & Powder]

Or it could just be market forces causing a correction of over inflated prices.
The sky is not ALWAYS falling.

[jcwit]

Two words, world economy.

[juzme]

Two words, world economy.

I say, based on my years of formal economics studies and business experience, "Yup."

[bob208]

people quit buying over priced items.

easy example when you see $5,000 cash back on a new truck. that means the the manufacture nor the dealer are taking a hit. it means the truck is over priced by $10,000.

[Petrol & Powder]

people quit buying over priced items.

easy example when you see $5,000 cash back on a new truck. that means the the manufacture nor the dealer are taking a hit. it means the truck is over priced by $10,000.

/\ Yep /\

[Tackleberry41]

The fed pumped up prices with their policies, created a huge bubble. Now that China's economy is having a 2008, the demand for such things has plummeted. All the air is being let out of the bubble. Now the fed, completely out of options, is considering raising rates with the idea they can make people think the economy is doing better since that's the only reason they would raise rates, wag the dog. Unfortunately they have screwed everything up so bad, its just going to blow up in their face. Theres a multi trillion dollar derivatives bubble out there waiting to pop. Not enough money on the planet to bail out the banks.

[Teddy (punchie)]

The fed pumped up prices with their policies, created a huge bubble. Now that China's economy is having a 2008, the demand for such things has plummeted. All the air is being let out of the bubble. Now the fed, completely out of options, is considering raising rates with the idea they can make people think the economy is doing better since that's the only reason they would raise rates, wag the dog. Unfortunately they have screwed everything up so bad, its just going to blow up in their face. Theres a multi trillion dollar derivatives bubble out there waiting to pop. Not enough money on the planet to bail out the banks.

Just about spot on. But multi trillion is some where around 50-70 trillion in the US. Most of the people I know are in to the banks for 150-300,000 and have car loans and other loans (cards) just sad and yes the bubble may bleve. From All the hot air from Officials.

[jmort]

There used to be threads about how lead prices would go up, Doe Run or whatever. I predicted then that lead prices would go down as, aside from car batteries and bullets, there is little other demand and liberals hate lead so lead bullets will be outlawed more and more. Prices will stay soft. This is the Golden Age of casting. At some point in the future, in the fullness of time, people will be machining bullets or making composite bullets as lead bullets will be banned.

[jcwit]

Remember a few years ago those that said Gas would never come down in price.

Remember a few years ago those that said primers would never come down in price.

[dragon813gt]

Remember a few years ago those that said Gas would never come down in price.

Remember a few years ago those that said primers would never come down in price.

You forgot the "New Norm" price of ARs. I didn't expect AR prices to fall as far as they have. But they've all come down in price to some extent. Primers not so much. I'm wishing I still had access to a loading dock. Because I'd place an order for a ton of alloy and not have to worry for a very long time.

[dtknowles]

Deflation is caused by supply and demand. Right now and in the foreseeable future there will be more sellers than buyers. In an effort to raise the third world out of poverty and to employ workers in the developed world, subsistence farmers are being turned into miners and factory workers. With all these workers pumping out products, consumer goods and raw materials the market is oversupplied with product thus prices will drop. This large supply of labor and materials is a challenge for the developed world as it pushes jobs toward the less developed countries. This lowers wages and with wages low demand slackens.

Large supply, small demand, lower prices, deflation. Is this deflation catastrophic, hard to say. It will be painful as it will keep wages low, everywhere wages will be low for low skilled workers. The money changers think that they can fix the demand side with easy credit but it is not working because workers and businesses that can qualify for loans don't need or want them and the rest can't qualify or are at least risky.

Tim

[MaryB]

The derivatives market is around 20 TIMES the entire worlds GDP, when that SHTF we are in for a major rough ride unless we do an Iceland and jail the bankers and start over with zero debt for anyone. Yes banks and Wall Street will fail. Let them!



The fed pumped up prices with their policies, created a huge bubble. Now that China's economy is having a 2008, the demand for such things has plummeted. All the air is being let out of the bubble. Now the fed, completely out of options, is considering raising rates with the idea they can make people think the economy is doing better since that's the only reason they would raise rates, wag the dog. Unfortunately they have screwed everything up so bad, its just going to blow up in their face. Theres a multi trillion dollar derivatives bubble out there waiting to pop. Not enough money on the planet to bail out the banks.

[MaryB]

In my area barter has made a major come back. The other day I needed the Co-op to bring up the skid steer to unload a tower and move it to my backyard. Instead of billing me he said we will call it even next time you fix the computers. I traded some time smoking pork butts for a family get together for eggs for 3 months(6 dozen). I would rather barter than use cash. You get to know more people, they get to know more people and word spreads that hey, I can exchange some labor for something I need without needing to involve the banks.



Deflation is caused by supply and demand. Right now and in the foreseeable future there will be more sellers than buyers. In an effort to raise the third world out of poverty and to employ workers in the developed world, subsistence farmers are being turned into miners and factory workers. With all these workers pumping out products, consumer goods and raw materials the market is oversupplied with product thus prices will drop. This large supply of labor and materials is a challenge for the developed world as it pushes jobs toward the less developed countries. This lowers wages and with wages low demand slackens.

Large supply, small demand, lower prices, deflation. Is this deflation catastrophic, hard to say. It will be painful as it will keep wages low, everywhere wages will be low for low skilled workers. The money changers think that they can fix the demand side with easy credit but it is not working because workers and businesses that can qualify for loans don't need or want them and the rest can't qualify or are at least risky.

Tim

[jcwit]

Wonder how low the price will go.

[starmac]

Remember a few years ago those that said Gas would never come down in price.

Remember a few years ago those that said primers would never come down in price.

This cracks me up, it is also higher than it was a few years ago, I reckon it just depends what year you are remembering. lol
Gold has been dropping too, metals generally follow the ups and downs of oil.

[Tackleberry41]

Well most of us remember when metal prices peaked, the Chinese were gobbling it up by the ship load to make stuff to sell to us. I have a friend still works at the dealership I used to. He made a tidy profit on the aluminum evaporator cores, catalytic converters etc that came out of cars. Then all of a sudden the market was gone, nobody wanted it as the demand plunged, it took a while for the rest of the economy to see it.

I was reading an article yesterday how the ECB (European central bank) equivalent to our fed has NEGATIVE interest rates. So you pay interest to the bank for keeping your money. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-23/swiss-bank-goes-there-applies-negative-rates-retail-deposits

The banks were not passing the negative rates on as obviously many people would simply take their money out of the bank vs losing money every month. The ECB is in a race to the bottom, they throw more money into the economy, it makes something like the Swiss franc go up in value, which sort of screws them over, so they do something to lower it. Then their back at the status quo again, so the ECB devalues again. The only reason the US dollar is 'up' is everything else is down. Were not rising anymore than the pier does at the beach, the tide simply went out.

My friend likes to watch that gold rush show, not sure why, just like any other 'reality' show. But I was asking how their making any money, when right now the price of gold an silver is below the cost to mine it. But the various govts want gold down so the only alternative is their monopoly money. Tho it is a bit of a screwy situation, PAPER gold, which is worthless is trading for the price you see on MSNBC. But you can't buy any actual gold for that. In a place like Hong Kong, physical gold has a $1000 premium on top of the market price. So the market is horribly distorted. Buy that happens when there are 100 paper ounces for every actual ounce of gold that exists, probably even higher in reality. They have had several near market crashes due to that, you can't actually redeem paper gold for real gold, only for monopoly money. Most with any sense have pulled their gold out of a bank. The banks simply rearrange the piles to make it look like they have some. Some have said part of the reason the US went after Libya, was to get their gold reserves stored in Britain. Gold they could then sell to keep the price down and the system running a little longer. So next in line is.....Syria.

Germany recently said they wanted their gold stored here in the US to keep in their banks, a reasonable request, since it was stored here to protect it from a soviet invasion, very unlikely. Well they were told no, when they asked to audit their gold, they were told no. And when the fed finally did give them a small percentage of it, it was not the gold bars Germany had stored there. More likely the banks had sold it off, then had to quickly replace it before the Germans pitched a fit or sued. The gold reserves in Fort Knox have not been audited in decades, many say there is no gold to audit, all part of the sham to keep things running.

Everything I read says its going to get ugly, they staved off a market crash not long ago, when somebody conveniently tripped over the power cord at the exchange and the computers were down for most of the day. The Chinese markets had crashed 30%, followed by the rest of the world. Markets here began to crash, and we had a miracle. But that won't work forever. The Chinese economy is in a shambles. Their arresting stock brokers now as scapegoats. Its not the markets that are rigged, its the brokers being greedy.

And now the fed is going to wag the dog. Seems they plan to raise rates, with the reverse psychology that the fed would not raise rates if the economy was not strong enough, and like a bunch of lemmings we will go along with it and start spending money. GM is giving 20% back on new cars, so how are they actually making any money? Or all just part of the scam, you run up the bills, then declare bankruptcy, screw everybody over, then start the cycle again. Tho notice they made it harder for us average people to declare bankruptcy. But its perfectly acceptable for business to do it.

[jmort]

^^^ Pretty much. Yet the Fed keeps "printing" electronic $$$ like nobody's business. We are the best of the worst which is crazy.

[quilbilly]

The price is going down but if I run into the "good stuff" at the recycle yard, I will gladly pay extra. I have been paying 40 cents for scrap roofing lead but when I ran into a 4' by 7' sheet of shielding lead (about 70#), I smiled and paid the 80 cents a pound for that.

[dtknowles]

^^^ Pretty much. Yet the Fed keeps "printing" electronic $$$ like nobody's business. We are the best of the worst which is crazy.

Didn't the Fed stop the QE awhile back? I don't think they are "printing" electronic $$$ these days.

Tim

[starmac]

Gold prices is below the cost to mine it, I know miners that would argue that point with you.

[jmort]

"Didn't the Fed stop the QE awhile back?"

Yes, they stopped a year ago in October. I didn't get the memo.

[Tackleberry41]

They may have stopped the official QE. But continued thru back doors. There is very little demand for US bonds, the Chinese have been dumping them for the cash to try and save their economy. The US govt needs money to operate, so the Fed is buying bonds thru back channels, overseas so no one will notice. If people really knew what was going on it would be panic.

Mining gold and silver as in the big industrial operations, not the guys like gold rush. I have read articles where some mines were threatening to shut down as they were not breaking even, and the gravy train of continuing to borrow money forever is over.

I see many running for office talking about capitalism. Some of the ideas might even work if we had such a system. But the Fed, ECB etc have screwed the system up so bad it no longer functions that way, you know the stuff we were taught in school, supply and demand. One would think a quick look in the history books would show you can't simply print money to get yourself out. But they want to keep the game going a little longer. And allowed the banks to rig the system, Iceland in 2008 said screw the banks, let them fail, and arrested those in charge. Their actually doing pretty good right now. The banks and fed said give us trillions or else. So allowed them to continue to steal everything, rig it so they knew which way to bet on things. Its not capitalism, but kleptocracy. Those running for president say they have a plan to fix it, but would require the collapse of whats existing to fix it.

A good place to see how messed up it is, Florida. Still have friends who live down there. If you go talking to a realtor, they will tell you its a sellers market, with tight inventory. Where my cousin runs around taking pictures of the foreclosed homes, and even if he worked 7 days a week, couldn't begin to keep up. There are neighborhoods down there where most of the homes are foreclosed on, they just do not list them, trickle them onto the market to keep prices up, make you think theres a short supply. Was a time I considered moving back, went looking at houses. The banks were trying to get full price on homes that had been stripped. They thought they could get 100% return on the loans made. Found a house, asked about bidding on it. Normally, you make an offer on a house, they get back to you in a day or 2 with a counter offer. You go back and forth, come to some middle ground. Oh no I was told, that the listed price was not the real price, I had to bid over that price to even have a chance at it. They just did that to get more offers, with no intention of selling for that price. And they would hold onto my offer for up to 6 weeks, to get more offers, then get you to compete for it, all the while tying up the money you put down. The house had sat empty for months, yard full of tall weeds, trash, people had gotten into it. All part of their game.

Now its the energy industry here thats about to implode. It was all fine when oil prices were up, and they could borrow money easily. Now the bottom has fallen out, a huge pile of money loaned out cannot be repaid. Now the employees they laid off or fired are stealing them blind. They do not care as they got their cash on the front end, its the investors who will get screwed. Its not hard to see it everywhere, like Freedom group and Marlin, Remington, H&R. Its all built on a huge pile of debt, only way it works is people keep borrowing. But now people are seeing the collateral for alot of loans is just smoke and mirrors, or used for several loans. Ponzi schemes only last so long. The US owes what 19 trillion now, not like either political party has any realistic plan to fix that problem.

[RogerDat]

China is in the process of letting some pressure out of their economic bubble before it can collapse or blow up. In our system when things go south in a big way we vote the rascals of one party out and the rascals of the other party in. Nothing changes but we don't end up having a revolution. China has one party rule and if they let a bubble such as we had in housing go too far it could create unacceptable risk for the political masters. Here they get voted out, become lobbyist or paid speakers at events so not such a big deal. There the whole system could collapse, or your family could get billed for the bullet used to execute you after a show trial where you are the scapegoat of honor.

The Chinese economy is such a huge chunk of world GDP that if they reduce consumption of something (say lead or copper) by 10% it is enough to drop the price. Inflation at moderate levels is less painful to those that have capital already. Remember when bank CD's paid 12% or more and were being used to fund the expenses of retired people. For those that are getting wages it reduces what they can afford until their wages move up, and they probably won't catch up or keep up with 12% inflation. Cost of doing business (short term and long term capital) goes up and that slows business. The interest payments a car dealer is making on inventory, the interest the manufacturer is paying on the short term line of credit for materials all get more expensive. Deflation on the other hand makes the wages of today worth more tomorrow. Trick is to actually have wages as prices for goods and services fall.

The USA is actually having more growth than much of the world. But if Europe, South America, or Asia are doing poorly they won't be buying our exports which will tend to hold our economy back irrespective of what we do.

[bedbugbilly]

Can't speak about the lead prices but a couple of weeks ago, we saw some neighbors of ours in AZ who had to come back to MI for a funeral and we went out to dinner. He used to work at one of the copper mines where we are out in AZ (southern AZ) but now he's back flying again. Anyway, he told me that the some of the copper mines out there are closing down - due to the price/demand of copper falling. He said that they announced that they wouldn't close until after the holidays so the employees wouldn't be out of work right at the holidays . .. . but afterwards, the lock goes on the doors. it will probably affect 600 - 700 workers that will be out of a job.

I wouldn't worry though if I were them 'cause I've heard the "left" talk about all their "job creating" that they've done the last two terms. I guess that's why when we drive across country from MI to AZ and go through small towns there are all the empty storefronts? And if they can't find jobs, I'm sure they can go back to college for a "free eduction" that they are touting. Now if only someone can tell us how . . . or who . . . is going to pay for all of that?

Perhaps mort has it right on the guvment and their printing of electronic money? Funny thing . . . if the regular citizen were to just print the money they needed to pay their bills . . . they'd be doing time for counterfeiting . . . which of course would ball under the Secret Service. But of course maybe that might just work out after all . . . they wouldn't have time to investigate or pursue the counterfeiting . . . they're too busy hiring hookers and calling underage children . . .

and, oh . . . did I mention I've been trying to sell my commercial building . . a very nice one that is well kept and attractive . . . for the past seven or eight years? Of course, even after dropping the price a number of times . . no offers. Why? Because the lending institutions in our area which are loaning commercial money (and very few are) wants a 40% down payment before they will even talk with a business about financing. Funny how the length of time we've had it up for sale and not even an offer corresponds with the same length of time the "left" has been in charge of things . . .you know . . the ones promising that things are just going to "get better".

So . . in answer to the OP . . . nope! Didn't know the price of lead was dropping as I haven't been looking for a while. Maybe now it the time to really stock up on lead for when the government goes to the "lead standard"? :-)

[Rick Hodges]

That "Free" education will end up being worth exactly what you paid for it. I am reminded of the young lady from Brown University who was crying on TV that she couldn't get a job with her Ivy League BA....in Women's Studies.....heck she (or someone) paid a heck of a lot for that one....and she will be paying for the rest of her life too.

[William Yanda]

That "Free" education will end up being worth exactly what you paid for it. I am reminded of the young lady from Brown University who was crying on TV that she couldn't get a job with her Ivy League BA....in Women's Studies.....heck she (or someone) paid a heck of a lot for that one....and she will be paying for the rest of her life too.

Expensive way to learn that actions have consequences.

[paul h]

So with dropping prices, what's the going price of coww ingots per pound?

[RogerDat]

So with dropping prices, what's the going price of coww ingots per pound?
Almost unchanged when it comes to buying them - what are they paying at the yard? Not much so in turn not as much comes in, with the seasonal drop off as the weather gets wet and cold the supply is reduced and we all know what that does to price in the face of constant demand.

I have seen at least two scrap yards that are selling inventory to pay the bills. You can look out in the yards and just see less "stuff" because what they did not sell off in anticipation of the falling price they would get as the market turned down they are now selling for cash flow.

[Merick]

scrap lead $.23/lb, wheel weights $.10, last time I got some maybe a year or so ago it was just under a buck.

Having dropped the ball on my storefront shuttering service business plan, and being marginally employed myself with degrees in finance and management, I wouldn't run down anyone for being out of work, even a Brown women studies grad. If nothing else you know they could read and write, possibly could learn other tasks, and definitely needed to be making payments on their school loans. There's at least 95,000,000 people out of the work force and, but ebt cards keep unsightly bread lines from forming.

For every dollar you leave in the bank, they will loan at least 5 and possibly 10-12 to some heel who will bid against you for whatever you need, they don't pay you any interest, and charge you up the kazoo if you need banking services. Negative interest was unthinkable ten years ago, but now a reality. People still walk around like the Nixon shock never happened, many will never understand negative rates.

[dtknowles]

Free college will be a disaster. Schools will raise the price and cut quality in favor of quantity and it will be paid for with money borrowed by the Treasury. We will have more people with worthless degrees and bigger federal debt.

Tim

[bangerjim]

Be careful what you wish for!

A falling primary metals market is NOT a good indicator of things to come.

[RogerDat]

Just for the record in inflation adjusted dollars pretty much every dollar we used to give to colleges and universities in subsidies is now used to guarantee highly profitable loans to the students who then pay higher tuition due to the reduced direct funding of higher education. Same tax payer funding but going to lenders rather than directly to schools as subsidies which reduced tuition costs to the point that one could afford to work and pay your way through school.

Ask yourself why students are paying 8% interest on a loan that is 100% guaranteed by the US government so the lender can't lose in the event of a default? At the same time the interest rates paid by lenders are at record lows? If you actually have the smarts to get an education and contribute to society good luck because by the time you get it you will owe your soul to the company store.

Ironic part is the whole student loan thing was supposed to make schools more responsive to customers, instead it just made schools compete to provide the best amenities to get students. Let's face it 18 year old freshmen don't pick college based on quality of professors, good wi-fi, nicer lounges and sport facilities influence the customers more so that is what the colleges provide.

Ironic part is to compete in a global economy we need the best trained and educated workforce possible yet we are doing everything possible to make that difficult to achieve.

[Merick]

Be careful what you wish for!

A falling primary metals market is NOT a good indicator of things to come.

That's just one indicator, everything is fine as long as shipping rates are stable. [checks baltic dry index] Uh oh...

[dtknowles]

Just thinking about deflation, if the price of everything is going to drop then I am going to be even richer than I thought. I already have enough money to retire, the only thing that could kill that is hyper inflation that I can't hedge. If prices go up faster than I can get investments to grow then I might have some trouble but if prices drop then I will be very well off as my money will go even farther and I will not have to pay taxes since I will have no capital gains or interest income even though my dollars will buy more product. To bad it will kill the economy. Some might say that the value of my house will drop but not really, it will still be just as nice a place to live as it is today and maintenance will be cheaper.

Tim

[dtknowles]

Boy would it suck to buy a new truck in a deflationary environment. Resale on used trucks would be horrible if each year the price of the new model went down.

It is bad enough now if you buy a truck and finance it, even if you put a good bit down usually you end up owing more than the truck is worth for a few years. In a deflationary environment would they pay you interest.

Tim

[MaryB]

Official QE ended... you can bet they are propping up the markets with non-public QE. All QE did was fuel the casino called Wall Street and drive the derivative nightmare even higher!


Didn't the Fed stop the QE awhile back? I don't think they are "printing" electronic $$$ these days.

Tim

[MaryB]

A lot of gold/silver is a secondary byproduct of a main metal mine like copper or lead. With demand for copper down their gold and silver output has trickled to a halt in some mines and very slow in others. Very few mines are primary gold/silver on an industrial scale.


They may have stopped the official QE. But continued thru back doors. There is very little demand for US bonds, the Chinese have been dumping them for the cash to try and save their economy. The US govt needs money to operate, so the Fed is buying bonds thru back channels, overseas so no one will notice. If people really knew what was going on it would be panic.

Mining gold and silver as in the big industrial operations, not the guys like gold rush. I have read articles where some mines were threatening to shut down as they were not breaking even, and the gravy train of continuing to borrow money forever is over.

I see many running for office talking about capitalism. Some of the ideas might even work if we had such a system. But the Fed, ECB etc have screwed the system up so bad it no longer functions that way, you know the stuff we were taught in school, supply and demand. One would think a quick look in the history books would show you can't simply print money to get yourself out. But they want to keep the game going a little longer. And allowed the banks to rig the system, Iceland in 2008 said screw the banks, let them fail, and arrested those in charge. Their actually doing pretty good right now. The banks and fed said give us trillions or else. So allowed them to continue to steal everything, rig it so they knew which way to bet on things. Its not capitalism, but kleptocracy. Those running for president say they have a plan to fix it, but would require the collapse of whats existing to fix it.

A good place to see how messed up it is, Florida. Still have friends who live down there. If you go talking to a realtor, they will tell you its a sellers market, with tight inventory. Where my cousin runs around taking pictures of the foreclosed homes, and even if he worked 7 days a week, couldn't begin to keep up. There are neighborhoods down there where most of the homes are foreclosed on, they just do not list them, trickle them onto the market to keep prices up, make you think theres a short supply. Was a time I considered moving back, went looking at houses. The banks were trying to get full price on homes that had been stripped. They thought they could get 100% return on the loans made. Found a house, asked about bidding on it. Normally, you make an offer on a house, they get back to you in a day or 2 with a counter offer. You go back and forth, come to some middle ground. Oh no I was told, that the listed price was not the real price, I had to bid over that price to even have a chance at it. They just did that to get more offers, with no intention of selling for that price. And they would hold onto my offer for up to 6 weeks, to get more offers, then get you to compete for it, all the while tying up the money you put down. The house had sat empty for months, yard full of tall weeds, trash, people had gotten into it. All part of their game.

Now its the energy industry here thats about to implode. It was all fine when oil prices were up, and they could borrow money easily. Now the bottom has fallen out, a huge pile of money loaned out cannot be repaid. Now the employees they laid off or fired are stealing them blind. They do not care as they got their cash on the front end, its the investors who will get screwed. Its not hard to see it everywhere, like Freedom group and Marlin, Remington, H&R. Its all built on a huge pile of debt, only way it works is people keep borrowing. But now people are seeing the collateral for alot of loans is just smoke and mirrors, or used for several loans. Ponzi schemes only last so long. The US owes what 19 trillion now, not like either political party has any realistic plan to fix that problem.

[Jpholla]

"The Treasurer: Remember! You yourself it was that signed:

Last night. You acted as great Pan,

Here’s how the Chancellor’s speech began:

‘Grant yourself this great festive pleasure,

The People’s Good: a few strokes of the feather.’ 6070

You wrote it here, and while night ruled the land,

A thousand artists created another thousand,

So all might benefit from your good deed,

We stamped the whole series with your screed,

Tens, Thirties, Fifties, Hundreds, all are done. 6075

You can’t think how well the folk get on.

See your city once half-dead with decay,

Now all’s alive, enjoying its new day!

Though your name’s long filled the world with glee,

They’ve never gazed at it so happily. 6080

Now the alphabet’s superfluous,

In these marks there’s bliss for all of us.


The Emperor: And my people value it as gold, you say?

The Court and Army treat it as real pay?

Then I must yield, though it’s wonderful to me. 6085


The Steward: It was impossible to catch the escapee:

It flashed like lightning through the land:

The moneychanger’s shops are jammed,

Men pay, themselves, the papers mount

They’re gold and silver, and at a discount. 6090

Now used by landlords, butchers, bakers:

Half the world think they’re merrymakers,

The others, newly clothed, are on show.

The drapers cut the cloth: the tailors sew.

The toast is ‘Hail, the Emperor!’ in the bars, 6095

With cooking, roasting, tinkling of jars.


Mephistopheles: Strolling, lonely, on the terrace,

You see a beauty, smartly dressed,

One eye hidden by her peacock fan,

She smiles sweetly, looks at your hand: 6100

And, quicker than wit or eloquence,

Love’s sweetest favour’s arranged at once.

You’re not plagued with pouch or wallet,

A note beneath the heart, install it,

Paired with love-letters, conveniently. 6105

The priest carries his in a breviary,

And wouldn’t the soldier be quicker on his way,

With a lighter belt around his middle, say.

Your Majesty will forgive me if, in miniature,

I produce a low note, in our high adventure. 6110


Faust: The wealth of treasure that solidifies,

That in your land, in deep earth lies,

Is all unused. In our boldest thought,

Such riches are only feebly caught:

Imagination, in its highest flight, 6115

Strives to, but can’t reach that height.

But grasping Spirits, worthy to look deeply,

Trust in things without limit, limitlessly.


Mephistopheles: Such paper’s convenient, for rather than a lot

Of gold and silver, you know what you’ve got. 6120

You’ve no need of bartering and exchanging,

Just drown your needs in wine and love-making.

If you lack coin, there’s moneychangers’ mile,

And if it fails, you dig the ground a while.

Cups and chains are auctioned: well, 6125

Since the paper, in this way, pays for itself,

It shames the doubters, and their acid wit,

People want nothing else, they’re used to it.

So now in all of your Imperial land

You’ve gems, gold, paper enough to hand."

Whenever I hear talk of inflation, recession, etc. I always think of this passage of Faust: Part II. Bear in mind that Goethe wrote this when the United States was in it's infancy in the early 1800's. People have been rigging the system since time immemorial, and I believe Goethe captures the absurdity of it all in this passage. Fittingly, it is Mephistopheles (a devil) who gives the emperor the idea of creating paper money. There truly is nothing new under the sun.

[AK Caster]

There is very little demand for US bonds, the Chinese have been dumping them for the cash to try and save their economy. The US govt needs money to operate, so the Fed is buying bonds thru back channels, overseas so no one will notice. If people really knew what was going on it would be panic.

How do know this to be fact?

[RogerDat]

How do know this to be fact?
Last I heard the demand was high for US Treasuries, safe haven in a troubled economic landscape. As long as Russia is playing games in both Europe and the Middle East, and China is going rogue in the South China Sea there will be a demand for US debt. Now will it be enough demand to finance our deficit? You bet however at what interest rate is a whole different issue. If we ever default we are totally screwed. For at least one and possibly two generations, assuming we can ever recover the lost opportunities.

[AK Caster]

So, the Chinese are dumping US bonds but the demands are high for US treasuries? What's the issue? Still trying to understand what all this has to do with lead prices.

[jonp]

Want to learn economics? Mises.org

[jmort]

"Want to learn economics? Mises.org"

Yes, exactly. I learned about mises.org from the Mogombo Guru, that guy is too cool/funny


Taking the Odds

November 17, 2015
By: The Mogombo Guru
On a heretofore misplaced piece of paper that was quickly forgotten until a “Hmmm! Look what I found!” moment, some recent noteworthy news is that the federal government took in $3.2 trillion in taxes on 2015, but spent $3.6 trillion, for a paper deficit-spending balance of $400 billion.
Wiping away the coffee stains and (sniff, sniff) what seems to be faint remnants of a chili dog, it appears, as calculated by someone who is more deft with a calculator than I, that this tax haul is more than $21,000 for every one of the country’s 148 million workers who either works full time or part time, which I think is a VERY generous estimate of how many workers there are.

[Tackleberry41]

Gold, treasuries, etc is all interconnected none of it operates in a vacuum. Alot of the news is not going to be found in mainstream sources. Zero hedge has alot of this stuff that they would prefer nobody know about.

And any news we get out of China is suspect. Its what the govt says, and they are obviously going to lie. Its very difficult to research economic data on your own as the govt is the only source. Not like here where you can go look up what they file with the SEC. They would lead us to believe things are fine, they have a handle on it. And why they would go around arresting people for trading in stocks. For a time they simply banned sales, you could buy all you wanted, but could not sell, guess what the market doesn't go down when you do that. When they had their crash, many stocks would hit their daily limit within minutes of the open, at one point something like 80% of stocks were not trading. Stock traders are different than here, most here is done by the big boys, in China its alot of little people. Many were wiped out. Some had done like people did here before 1929, borrowed to invest. People there are also very different than here, I was married to a Chinese woman, spent time there. Few have car payments, its not even easy to get a car loan like here. Just like few there have mortgages, they had to make up a new word for it 'house slave' was the translation. Everything is cash there, I was told only stupid people keep money in the bank. But they do not offer interest on your money, only way it grew was investing it. They had all sorts of get rich quick scams. Most business there do not last long. They come and go at a frightening rate, usually because they tried to pull to many scams, then run off with whats left of the cash in the middle of the night. Its very common there for workers to show up in the morning, and the boss has cleaned out the safe, never to be seen again. Then the police show up to make sure they keep quiet about it.

The Chinese govt is very sensitive about the word on the street, and why they so heavily sensor the news. Its a pressure cooker, even in good times, before 2008, unemployment was close to 30%. So they want to keep a lid on things, lest people get unhappy and take to the streets, you can only shoot so many people. They do just enough to keep the lid from blowing off the pot, while keeping their scams going. Few here can imagine the corruption there. Its not all uncommon for the local cops to 'arrest' you, and hold you until your family pays basically a ransom. My ex kept her apartment in her moms name so the cops would swing by saying 'your doing pretty well for yourself, now wheres our cut'? She had rented the building out, the people had some sort of business, cops came by, took appliances said they got them back when they paid up. Its built into the society, corruption is expected. Just as they really have no concept of a lie, say what ever you have to to get what you want, then something completely different tomorrow. Most say its a communist country, it stopped being that long ago. They make Wall street look like a bunch of girl scouts. A pit of vipers, 1.3 billion malignant narcissists, friends are just people you screw over less often.

These are the people who scoop muck out of the sewers, and cook it down into 'cooking oil' thats sold to restaurants and street vendors. Its cheap, they can make more money, so who cares. You ask people about it, they just shrug their shoulders, 'what you gonna do, thats the way it is'. They have serial numbers on bottled water to at least slow down people pulling scams. They even make fake eggs, don't ask me how its done, but they do it.

[dtknowles]

"Want to learn economics? Mises.org"

Yes, exactly. I learned about mises.org from the Mogombo Guru, that guy is too cool/funny


Taking the Odds

November 17, 2015
By: The Mogombo Guru
On a heretofore misplaced piece of paper that was quickly forgotten until a “Hmmm! Look what I found!” moment, some recent noteworthy news is that the federal government took in $3.2 trillion in taxes on 2015, but spent $3.6 trillion, for a paper deficit-spending balance of $400 billion.
Wiping away the coffee stains and (sniff, sniff) what seems to be faint remnants of a chili dog, it appears, as calculated by someone who is more deft with a calculator than I, that this tax haul is more than $21,000 for every one of the country’s 148 million workers who either works full time or part time, which I think is a VERY generous estimate of how many workers there are.

You smell tester is out of calibration. First, I paid more than twice that number to the Treasury last year. Second, in addition to workers, companies paid income taxes. Third, the Federal Reserve paid the Treasury almost $100 billion this year. Fourth, companies pay royalties for extractive industries like, oil, gas, timber, grazing, coal, etc. Fifth, there are many fees and other payments made by companies and individuals paid to the federal government like even the fees paid to visit the national parks. Sixth, tariffs and import duties. Seventh, fines and penalties, some brokerages and banks have been forced to pay billions in fines in the last few years.

Your math is overly simplistic and anyone who found it meaningful is a fool. Sorry, it was not your math but you did repost it. Did you consider it credible?

Tim

[jmort]

"Your math is overly simplistic and anyone who found it meaningful is a fool."


First, it was the Mogombo Guru who wrote the short piece. Obviously, you don't "get" his point. No surprise there. Second, his business is finance/investment and if you want to see a "tonto" I believe you have a mirror in your bathroom. You operate in a strange place.

[dtknowles]

"Your math is overly simplistic and anyone who found it meaningful is a fool."


First, it was the Mogombo Guru who wrote the short piece. Obviously, you don't "get" his point. No surprise there. Second, his business is finance/investment and if you want to see a "tonto" I believe you have a mirror in your bathroom. You operate in a strange place.

Tonto, yourself and your Mogombo Guru, that was not a real business piece it is total political bull.

Here is a little business 101 for you. Less than half of Federal tax revenue comes from personal income taxes.

https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-budget-101/revenues/

Tim

[jonp]

Tim: I read the reply to mean every worker as in divide the deficit by the numbers of workers and that is what you get per person which is not what they each paid in taxes of course.

It's like saying our $20 Trillion in debt or whatever fictional amount we have now is like every man,woman and child owing $36,000.

[dtknowles]

Tim: I read the reply to mean every worker as in divide the deficit by the numbers of workers and that is what you get per person which is not what they each paid in taxes of course.

It's like saying our $20 Trillion in debt or whatever fictional amount we have now is like every man,woman and child owing $36,000.

I just took what was posted at face value as bad analysis. The premise that the U.S. is in a bad and getting worse fiscal position is accurate and the stat that you have there is also true and a reflection of the monstrous level of debt we are letting the Federal Government accumulate. I just hate it people justify opinions with lame analysis or bad data even when I agree with the opinion.

Tim

[dtknowles]

"Your math is overly simplistic and anyone who found it meaningful is a fool."


First, it was the Mogombo Guru who wrote the short piece. Obviously, you don't "get" his point. No surprise there. Second, his business is finance/investment and if you want to see a "tonto" I believe you have a mirror in your bathroom. You operate in a strange place.

I operate in the place called reality, yes, that place is strange to many people. Yes, I understood his point but his data was bogus. I agree with his premise but he defended it with a fiction eroding his credibility. If he had used the real numbers he could have come to the same conclusion and still had his credibility. If people could not read and understand the real numbers then they have no reason to be forming an opinion on the subject. We already have way too many low info voters selecting the people who will run the country even though they can't balance a check book.

Just another factoid, the top 10 percent of tax payers pay almost 70 percent of personal income taxes. The government spent $3.6 trillion last year and there are 320 million people in the U.S. so anyone who didn't send the Treasury $10,000 last year is not holding up their end of the bargain. That is $20,000 for a couple and $40,000 for a family of 4. There are some rich people and big companies that are carrying your weight for you so get of the pot and earn some real money so you can pay your share of the cost of running this country. (just an example of stupid analysis, there are many flaws in that simplistic analysis but it is half true.)

Tim

[jmort]

"I operate in the place called reality, yes, that place is strange to many people."


Thank you, I needed a laugh. You are one of a kind.

[jonp]

"I operate in the place called reality, yes, that place is strange to many people."


Thank you, I needed a laugh. You are one of a kind.

Planet Reality is my home. It is very lonely here

[jmort]

"Planet Reality is my home."

First thing I thought of was your old/current "Location" tag. Bring it back, by popular demand. Apparently there is at least one other resident.

[Petrol & Powder]

It is amazing how many economy experts we have on this forum that not only know the cause and effect of even the smallest unrelated economic indicators but also have an intimate knowledge of the buying/selling/spending and savings practices of each and every one of the 7 billion people on this planet. And even more amazing is their incredible wiliness to share such vast knowledge on an internet forum.
I never would have guessed I was in the midst of such greatness........

Edited because dtknowles pointed out that spell check substituted mist for midst.
Thank-you for catching that.

[dtknowles]

............ And even more amazing is their incredible wiliness to share such vast knowledge on an internet forum.
I never would have guessed I was in the mist of such greatness........

Yes, the mist is very great. I traded my first options when I was 22 years old, after I made a bit of money I move to much less risky investments. I would like to think I know as much about finance and business as I do about designing rockets, casting bullets or reloading ammo. My 401K made money during the great recession, before the crash I had move 75 percent of my portfolio to cash.

I told my financial adviser to start moving to cash three months ago. There will be another recession in the next few years. I told him whenever the is a move up sell something and just park the cash. I don't care if I don't make anything for the next few years as long as I don't lose anything when the next crash hits.

Tim

[Petrol & Powder]

Yes, the mist is very great. I traded my first options when I was 22 years old, after I made a bit of money I move to much less risky investments. I would like to think I know as much about finance and business as I do about designing rockets, casting bullets or reloading ammo. My 401K made money during the great recession, before the crash I had move 75 percent of my portfolio to cash.

Tim

And you're humble too

[Just Duke]

So about those lead prices...................

[AK Caster]

Just love the fact so many people here know what the best investments were in the past. I bet you guys could even predict the winners and score spread of the last 5 super bowls:)

Still hoping lead, silver, and gold drops so I can buy a little. But by this time next year some of you wise men will tell me what I should of done.

[RogerDat]

Lead prices can fall too low if:

Demand is so low that it puts all the sources of supply out of business. Our own little demand piggybacks on industrial demand without that demand to support the lead industry we have no supply. Most household and even industrial uses have been replaced with plastics.
The economy is in the toilet and any non-essential to life commodity has no market aka the great depression when things such as cars or furniture saw prices fall through the floor. Supplies and equipment might be cheap but those that work will probably be unemployed, and those that get retirement checks from pension investments or SS taxes paid by workers won't have any money.


Economics theory as applied to current world, tax policies, the US or world economy are all complex subjects that do not lend themselves well to discussion in brief or even long postings. At best one can get a link to some article which may or may not be well reasoned. Maybe some sound bite type statements and cherry picked data posted. Also answers and comments tend to be snarky and hostile which does not lend itself to thoughtful discussion.

If the subject is complicated both in terms of theory and data I think it is a safe bet that no matter how brilliant the membership in the discussion the forum works against anything but "yes men" type discussions or "shouted" arguments. For example I don't know exact figures off hand but IF 70% of taxes are paid by the top 10% (not seen evidence just statement) that would be unfair tax policy UNLESS 70% or more of all income was going to that same 10% because you see if it is an income tax and you make more of the income then you pay more taxes. If a group only makes 10% of all income then the group would reasonably only pay 10% of income taxes right? If another group made 40% of all income that one would be expected to pay 40% of the income taxes paid. Now if the top 10% make 90% of the money and only pays 70% of the taxes someone else is paying 20% that the top 10% should have paid on that 90% of income. If the top 10% only makes 60% of the income then they are paying more than an equal share. However equal and fair are not always the same. Otherwise giving the team that lost the same "champion" trophy as the team that won would be "fair".

BTW - prices of lead locally for purchases from a scrap yard are not down much at all, the prices going in are down a pretty good amount.

[jmort]

"Lead prices can fall too low if:

Demand is so low that it puts all the sources of supply out of business"


Good point

[Blammer]

If I had to make a call, I'd buy silver now.

[jmort]

"If I had to make a call, I'd buy silver now."

Me too, but silver has been a bitter mistress for me.

[dtknowles]

Just love the fact so many people here know what the best investments were in the past. I bet you guys could even predict the winners and score spread of the last 5 super bowls:)

Still hoping lead, silver, and gold drops so I can buy a little. But by this time next year some of you wise men will tell me what I should of done.

I have told everyone here what I am doing to prepare for the recession that is almost certain in the next few years, move to cash. Yes, if lead, silver and gold drop some more use some of that cash to buy it. When the recession hits, sell the metal and by stocks when they start to recover.

Tim

[jmort]

"move to cash."

You mean literally or electronically? I thinks having a stash of paper cash in a safe place make a lot sense right now. Electronic cash seems perilous for the little guy. I often chuckle at the concept of paper money backed by the full faith and credit of the issuing government/entity. Still, if it is legal tender, my creditors, as few as they are, have to accept it. And, if there is a 'bank holiday" and no ATM access, it would be nice to have some cash. With negative interest rates proliferating, paper cash or even silver cash makes sense.

[dtknowles]

...................If the subject is complicated both in terms of theory and data I think it is a safe bet that no matter how brilliant the membership in the discussion the forum works against anything but "yes men" type discussions or "shouted" arguments. For example I don't know exact figures off hand but IF 70% of taxes are paid by the top 10% (not seen evidence just statement) that would be unfair tax policy UNLESS 70% or more of all income was going to that same 10% because you see if it is an income tax and you make more of the income then you pay more taxes. If a group only makes 10% of all income then the group would reasonably only pay 10% of income taxes right? If another group made 40% of all income that one would be expected to pay 40% of the income taxes paid. Now if the top 10% make 90% of the money and only pays 70% of the taxes someone else is paying 20% that the top 10% should have paid on that 90% of income. If the top 10% only makes 60% of the income then they are paying more than an equal share. However equal and fair are not always the same. Otherwise giving the team that lost the same "champion" trophy as the team that won would be "fair".

BTW - prices of lead locally for purchases from a scrap yard are not down much at all, the prices going in are down a pretty good amount.

The best trained minds can't explain economics to congress in a couple day and the training takes years and years so, yes, any economic theory discussions here are going to be only introductory.

Here is a link to the 10% - 70% data. Your tax fairness discussion seems to confirm you point about the uselessness of deep financial discussion here.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/12/news/economy/rich-taxes/

The top 10 percent of taxpayers paid over 70% of the total amount collected in federal income taxes in 2010, the latest year figures are available, according to the Tax Foundation, a think tank that advocates for lower taxes. That's up from 55% in 1986.

That is from the article posted, it is not the same as the article that I read yesterday, which I think was data from a different year and put the number at 68%

In general the big earners pay more and at a higher rate. I did not call the rich this time because the Rich might not pay any taxes if they don't have any income, you can have a net worth of a billion dollars and not have any reportable income even if you net worth doubles if it is invested in real estate or other capital investments like factory equipment or stocks or gold.

Tim

[jonp]

Trying to time the precious metals market is a fools game. Buy in steady increments throughout the year as part of a larger retirement portfolio.

Lead is falling because we don't have to pay for mining it in this country anymore as Obama has driven all domestic lead production out of business. The cost of recycling lead is far lower so the cost of buying it is lower. /couple this with lower usage due to the economy and the infamous deadly lead costs less.

[troyboy]

All metals are low, will be for some time. Many mining companies will fail as prices will continue to plummet.

[dtknowles]

When timing a market most speculators try to put too fine a line on it. Don't try to pick a bottom or a top but work to buy low and sell high. Not buy at the bottom or sell at the top. Pick a longer time scale think decade not year or month. The major market cycle is every 10 years (or many as few as 8 years but rarely more than 10). If you start young you can get 5 or 6 fabulous trades in your life time. If you try to shoot for the intermediate cycles you are playing with fire because of false moves by the market. You know that there is going to be another bottom in the next two to three years, really just after the next presidential election and it does not matter who wins the election.

Tim

[MaryB]

You have to look at silver not from a fiat standpoint but as a store of value standpoint. 1948 a silver quarter bought a gallon of gas with a penny change, in 2015 a silver quarter buys a gallon of gas and 50 cents change(at $1.99/gal in my town as of today). Now a paper dollar from 1948 lost?(to much food, brain not doing the math right)

[Merick]

There are a lot of places to buy and sell silver, but the problem with it in my eyes is that the spreads are too wide (dealer markup in other words) to get it in and out of folding money, and it has limited use. If you were on an island alone what would could you do with silver dollars? A bucket of wheel weights on the other hand you could get to work casting bullets, feed yourself, and with any luck shoot a hole in the ground, collect the ensuing bubbling crude, and move away from there. However lead is marginally portable, and hard to trade outside of present company. As I figure it nothing is going to check all the boxes, so it doesn't hurt to have a few different things.

[MaryB]

Silver is easy to sell on Craigslist and ebay!

[Hardcast416taylor]

My Granddaughter told me about something an economics professor told her class 2 years back when she was still in college. He said there are 3rd and 4th generation families of coal miners still sitting on their front porch with a pick ax and shovel just waiting for the coal boom days of WW 2 time to return. Robert

[AK Caster]

My Granddaughter told me about something an economics professor told her class 2 years back when she was still in college. He said there are 3rd and 4th generation families of coal miners still sitting on their front porch with a pick ax and shovel just waiting for the coal boom days of WW 2 time to return. Robert


LOL but how true! More than a few of my older relatives hoard most anything claiming "just wait awhile and it will be worth a fortune"
One uncle collects old tires and car batteries. Another collects scraps of old wood claiming they are "barn wood" and worth a fortune. He is the same one who has a couple of walnut trees in his back yard that are only 20 or 30 years old but they are each worth $10,000 and someone will buy them soon.

[RogerDat]

I personally advocate for always getting a two-fer from stuff I stockpile for tough times. I don't buy multi-week or month freeze dried food packs but will buy canned foods or staples I use on a regular basis. I would rather have metal I can use than a hedge against inflation sitting in a box. Fuel for the camp stove or kerosene heater or propane for the smelting pot.

All things that are useful day to day, all useful in the event of weather related or other temporary disruption.

[MaryB]

Like my 11,000 pound corn stash for heating the house. I will only use about 5,000 pounds this winter unless we have a power outage and I burn 24/7. That will use close to 9,000 pounds then. Right now I only run it when I am awake. At night I let the house cool down to 72 then the natural gas furnace cycles a few times over night.

[starmac]

Cool down to 72??????? How hot do you keep it in the daytime?

[hanleyfan]

If lead prices are falling why is it every time I check around for lead the price is still as high as ever.

[dragon813gt]

If lead prices are falling why is it every time I check around for lead the price is still as high as ever.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical_large.html#5years

If you are buying from a yard it's up to them to set their price. You have the option to buy or not.

[shooter93]

Things will go up and things will go down. Silver and or gold maybe be of value but maybe 22 rimfire shells will be the new commodity. All depends how bad and even if the bubble bursts. Gold and silver could be banned....once again. Accounts could be seized and rationing of even the most basic needed items could happen. Some of your neighbors may decide your stash should be "more equally distributed" for the good of all and of course for the children. No one knows.....not even the "great" economic minds. You hear "predictions" that cover all possible scenarios and all conditions so someone is bound to be able to say I told you so. What will happen is going to happen. We either unite as a people to get as many through the mess as we can or we resort to "me and mine" and hope you survive the barbarism. Despite how many people " believe they are ready, able and skilled enough" to triumph I have a feeling they will have a very rude awakening.

[castalott]

I want to add another perspective... FDR ( not my hero) ( I'm doing this from memory so it's not an exact quote) said " Thank God it is only the money and the economy that is damaged. The American People are still good." He went on the indicate that if the people ( and their morals) were in the shape as the money that we might not recover. Look around you now and tell me if this narcistic ( I can't find my dictionary to spell it correctly) generation has the guts and goodness of that generation. This is a serious question and I would like an answer.....

Dale

[dragon813gt]

There are plenty of us that do. Each generation has had it's share of losers. The game has been rigged so that each subsequent generation has a higher percentage of losers. The game is due for a reset. How this is accomplished is the crux of the matter. Rest assured there are plenty of good men and women still out there.

[MaryB]

With the arthritis in my spine and hands warmer the better, living room runs about 78 by the corn stove then rest of the house is cooler. I do not tolerate cold well anymore and I am finding that the plate in my neck aches when cold...


Cool down to 72??????? How hot do you keep it in the daytime?

[Tackleberry41]

Heres a good example of the propaganda thats out there.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-27/half-of-gold-output-may-not-be-viable-as-price-sags-randgold

Its not that banks and the govt are manipulating the price of gold to their advantage. No its an oversupply of gold from mines, even tho in such a case, it should be very easy then to get physical gold. When in fact its the opposite. When has ANYONE in the history of humanity EVER said 'we have to much gold'?

[AK Caster]

Why do you say it is difficult to get physical gold? There are numerous online sites that sell it and my favorite is Ampex. Today a 1 ounce gold eagle is selling for about $50 over spot.

[Tackleberry41]

Guess depends on where you go looking. Some places in the world there is a premium of closer to $1000 per oz. India has taken some crazy measures to slow down the buying of gold. China and Russia do not export gold, every ounce mined goes into their pile. Its not supply keeping prices down but manipulation.

[AK Caster]

Guess depends on where you go looking. Some places in the world there is a premium of closer to $1000 per oz. India has taken some crazy measures to slow down the buying of gold. China and Russia do not export gold, every ounce mined goes into their pile. Its not supply keeping prices down but manipulation.

Buy all the gold and silver you want in the USA.

[Tackleberry41]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-04/indian-government-shifts-focus-temple-stash-after-failing-get-citizens-gold

A news story to show how their trying to keep the sham going a little longer. Not much different than what was done her ein the 30s, they will try voluntary first, and eventually go for confiscation.

[MaryB]

"Banks holding the bullion will be free to sell or lend the gold to jewelers, thereby boosting supply." This is a ponzi scheme. Banks sell your gold at a profit and when you want it back you end up with worthless fiat that has dropped in value.

[Love Life]

I want to add another perspective... FDR ( not my hero) ( I'm doing this from memory so it's not an exact quote) said " Thank God it is only the money and the economy that is damaged. The American People are still good." He went on the indicate that if the people ( and their morals) were in the shape as the money that we might not recover. Look around you now and tell me if this narcistic ( I can't find my dictionary to spell it correctly) generation has the guts and goodness of that generation. This is a serious question and I would like an answer.....

Dale

Ell oh ell. Naw, the nation is screwed. All the poor decisions and morals of the previous generation have been instilled into the current generation, with their own problems thrown in.

I would recommend looking into possibly moving to another nation to avoid the coming fall...due to this new generation being the one that gave us the EPA, DEA, GCA, NFA, etc. Oh, and the NAFTA as well...and the U.N.

Dang whippersnappers.

[Tackleberry41]

There is not a corner of any economic market the banks have not rigged. Most of it is simply for their own enrichment, but the various govts and central banks all have an interest in keeping the system going, and will resort to anything to keep it going.

I was reading about the various Euro countries still using their own money, their struggling against the ECB money printing. The ECB throws a money party, lowering its value, then the Swiss have problems exporting, so they have to devalue. Which defeats the purpose of ECB money printing, so they print more. The Swiss are resorting to negative interest rates. Who would keep money in a bank if your not only losing to inflation, plus the normal fees, but their charging you interest to hold it? The Chinese now are devaluing their money. The US govt says oh no there's no inflation, see gas prices are down. Yea except EVERYTHING else is up. My sons little lunch things for school were $1 ea not long ago, now their $1.50. But I will not see a raise in my VA check as there is no inflation, good to know.

So while the US govt is saying gold is not money, it has no value, the Russian and Chinese govts are buying every ounce they can get their hands on. So their just stupid? Will come a day when the price of gold is taken from US govt and bank hands. The Chinese are about to open a major metals exchange that would compete directly with the COMEX. The ponzi scheme only works if your in control if things: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05/ben-bernankes-employer-citadel-alleges-leveling-playing-field-will-actually-hurt-sto

They talk about free markets, but what we have is nowhere close to a free market.

Last year the US was all set to go in and deal with the civil war in Syria, and at the last minute backed down, the story is the Russians called and said back off or else, else being massive dumping of treasuries and jacking up the price of gold, game over for us. I know many have the idea its because Obama is a Muslim, when its simply politics. Nobody cared when we took out the Libyans, but the Syrians are backed by Russia. Would we do any different if Russia went and knocked off the govt in Okinawa for 'regime change', threatening our military base?

Heres a good read on how screwed up things are in Syria: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05/did-turkey-just-invade-iraq-protect-erdogans-isis-oil-smuggling-routes

Turkey is our 'ally' remember. And they just said on the news we were sending troops to Iraq to help fight ISIS, only seems they didn't ask the Iraqis. The Iraqis do not trust us as they know we created and in many ways are supporting ISIS while telling everyone were against them. So may just refuse those troops, we going to invade again?