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Jim
05-20-2013, 09:33 AM
A friend here in Floyd that I met not long after I moved here is a gun show dealer. He called me last week and asked if I would be interested in helping him. After discussing details, we came to terms and I did my first show with him this past weekend in Richmond.

Unpacking, setting up, breaking down and repacking 350 guns is tedious, but other than that, I really enjoyed it. I didn't get to do much walking around and looking as I was 'on the clock', but I enjoyed talking with the customers. I even managed to sell a few guns for my boss.

There were a lot of people there, but it seemed very few were spending money. All the vendors know each other and quite a few stopped by our display to talk to the boss. They all complained about the low gun sales. My boss said he needed to sell about 30 guns to break even on expenses. We sold 18 guns in two days.

I saw something that reminded me of some of the conversations here. There were a few ammo dealers and very few were doing any kind of business to speak of. One small ammo dealer was right next to us.

During a lull, I went over to their table to speak and look. They had four 100 count plastic boxes of 22 ammo shrink wrapped into a single package. The price sticker was $25. I thought "$25 for 400 rounds, OK, I'll do that." I picked up the box, laid it in front of the lady and said "Whadda I owe ya'?" She said "Hunnerd and five dollars."

I intentionally gave her that 'deer in the headlights' look and she said "Twenty five dollars a box." When I mentioned I thought the price was for the four boxes shrink wrapped together, she said "No, I just haven't cut them open yet." I told her I couldn't afford 25 cents a shot for rimfire ammo.

I was sitting in a 'tactical' position where I could watch our tables and see all of them. That put me right next to the ammo dealer. Awhile later, a guy stopped by and asked if they had any .30-30. She came out with a box of Remington 150 grainers and told the guy they were $35. As he turned and walked away, I heard him say "You're (fill in the blank) crazy."

I don't know if it's just Richmond or if it's state wide or nationwide, but the sale of ARs has virtually stopped. I saw walk-in customers carrying ARs with 'for sale' signs in the barrels. I saw a lot of those guys walk back out with the same guns. A couple of other vendors told my boss they can't give away an AR. We had several on display and people looked, but we never even got a question about them.

I saw powder going for $50 a pound and primers going for $50 to $60 a K. I saw very few J bullets out on display. I saw new .45-70 brass going for a dollar a piece.

My blanket assessment: Prices have hit third stage and about to leave the earth's atmosphere and nobody can afford this stuff anymore.

41 mag fan
05-20-2013, 09:37 AM
Good...that means prices will tumble hard then. It's funny how you describe gun sales have stopped. But it's within reasonable thinking there...everyones spent their money and got what they wanted already.
Plus...it's spring. Sales slow down as people turn their attention to buying for their yard ect ect.

10-x
05-20-2013, 09:45 AM
+1, sounds like a good description of the situation. Next big JAX show is 6/1&2...will see how it is down here.

x101airborne
05-20-2013, 09:45 AM
Yes, I also think ammo prices are about to tumble. The hoarders have already bought up what they need and prices haven't come down to the regular Joe's level yet.

I did buy powder for 22.00 and change at my LGS a week ago or so.

snaketail
05-20-2013, 10:12 AM
When prices go back down let's all remember those who gouged us. There are a couple of LGS that won't get my business again because of their "black-market" pricing.

Jim
05-20-2013, 10:24 AM
When prices go back down let's all remember those who gouged us. There are a couple of LGS that won't get my business again because of their "black-market" pricing.

You got that right! The ONLY reason I would buy ANYTHING from a source other than Harold and Miss Jeanette would be they just can't get it.

Love Life
05-20-2013, 10:34 AM
The market is indeed catching it's breath right now. If no major incidents happen, and no follow on gun grabs, then things should stay slow from this point on. I do not see a big jump in firearms/ammo sales for the holidays. Many will be offloading what they got during the beginning of the year so the private sales market should be moving rather brisk.

People aren't buying guns, because they can't afford ammo, and they can't find any components in stock to reload ammo. Have cash in hand no later than September to score good deals as people realize they have to fill the bottom of the Christmas tree and travel home for the holiday. Expect brisk business again at the beginning of the year with tax return season.

We have seen it every year here before the panic. The S&S section is smoking because things are moving so fast during tax return season, then things slow down during the summer, then things go on sale during the fall/winter, then the S&S is smoking again come February.

fatelk
05-20-2013, 10:47 AM
I remember this from last time. People are fast to catch the upward curve, but really slow to catch the downward one.

When there's a scare, these folks jack their prices up real quick; "supply and demand", "whatever the market will bear". That's all true, but it's also true when demand is falling because the prices are too dang high. If they lowered their prices a little, maybe they would sell something. If they don't, they're eventually going to have to lower them a lot. Surely they knew this was a bubble?

texassako
05-20-2013, 10:50 AM
Wally world actually had ammo sitting on the shelf this morning, but no .22. A bit of everything Tula makes that they carry and the more common deer rifle calibers in Federal or Remington. I picked a few boxes of .380 steel cased ammo for $14 ea for those times my friend wants to go to the indoor range by his house that is a no reload, no exposed lead, we keep the brass sort of place.

Smitty's Retired
05-20-2013, 12:11 PM
Hopefully Jim, the craziness is about to settle. It took the same path after the Brady Bill was enacted in '93. About halfway through '94 it got stupid. But after all the speculators (who were buying AR's, Magazines, and ammo to resale and as an investment) and scared rabbit buyers who were afraid AR's were going away, bought their fill, prices (along with amounts of primers and ammo) started to return to normal by '95. That was also about the time you started seeing all the people with overpriced AR's on their backs trying to recoupe their money. Hopefully (especially for those new to the reloading hobby / addiction), it will get a little easier to find components.

troyboy
05-20-2013, 12:56 PM
Are you going to be working the Chantilly show, first of June? I am going and will be buying. What is the name of your vendor? The boys and I would like to stop by and chat. Thanks Troy

TenTea
05-20-2013, 01:11 PM
A friend and I rented 2 tables at a show this last weekend.
He did so well selling off his *excess* guns, he skipped out on Sunday.
I sold a heap of extra odds and ends to include brass, magazines, holsters, rifle barrel, AR parts, knives, etc.

Why? = Because our prices were fair and reasonable.

I did come home with all 3 Collins machetes I was trying to sell though. {shrug}

Yes, the downward trend is much slower than the upside.

ps: ammo is still *high & tight*

mold maker
05-20-2013, 01:45 PM
Those that thought they were making a last chance AR purchase, have already spent the big bucks. Those of us who were put off by the high prices, are still waiting for the prices to normalize. There is going to be lots of folks trying to sell (investment purchasers) before the bubble bursts, but the time has past.
I too will remember those that tried to gouge me. As the old saying goes, "They'll get none of this".

km101
05-20-2013, 01:51 PM
It seems that some of the guns that were bought for resale are coming back on the market. I saw a "new, unfired" DPMS AR listed locally for $1,000. No takers! Two days later it had come down (in $50 steps) to $800 He finally got a few nibbles, but it is still available! I am seeing listings for powder and bullets (no primers) at almost the "old normal" price. I haven't been to a local gun show, but friends that have report that ammo prices are still ridiculous, and supplies are still very small. Local stores like Walmart and Academy, Cabelas and Bass Pro are getting a trickle of ammo but not enough to meet demand.

Things may be loosening some, but it is still a long way from over. And if the administration comes out with another ban, it will get bad again.

As Yogi Berra says: "It ain't over 'till it's over!"

TES
05-20-2013, 02:23 PM
A guy at the gun show here asked me to sign up to win a brand new AR. I told him no thanks! He looked at me funny and tried to convince me again. I said right now I can put a scope on a 2 x 4 and it would be just as useful.

No ammo for guns means no gun purchases for me. If demand was letting up there would be supply. Right now there is still no regular or dependable supply. The fact that everything got snatched up means that unless production continues to grow that supply will be very limited for some time. Just think how many people are now reloaders (me included) that were not before. Now we are all competing for the same amount of stuff. The next episode of panic will again make it worse for everyone. I don't see this getting back to "normal" for a long time.

Blacksmith
05-20-2013, 03:37 PM
Normal is periods of feast and famine. It has been like this for a long time but the periods have been getting closer together and the swings have been growing in amplitude. So when it swings the other way you better get prepared for the next famine because it will come. When it comes if you aren't prepared you will kick yourself every time you look at an empty shelf or a brick of .22's with a $100+ price tag and say I should have listened to Blacksmith.

woody1
05-20-2013, 03:57 PM
After seeing the prices at the fall show, I didn't even go to the last local gun show. I don't really need anything but what does "need" have to do with this addiction? Regards, Woody

starmac
05-20-2013, 04:28 PM
I always go to any gun show, if I can.I never go with big hopes though.

dakotashooter2
05-20-2013, 05:00 PM
The best way to SELL product is to ask a decent price. If dealers are not selling anything because their prices are out of line it's their own fault. If you are basing your price on what a few suckers are willing to pay you better be willing to wait for the next sucker to come along.

It's funny... I didn't see many gun dealers willing to double the value of a (your) trade gun for their gun which they jacked up the price on.............. They would laugh when you wanted $500 for your $300 but got insulted if you offered them $300 for their $300 gun that they were asking $500 for.......

shooter93
05-20-2013, 06:02 PM
A couple of the larger shows I go to have a couple pretty big book dealers. These guy get 8 or 10 tables each, 100's of books if not a thousand, and I spend a lot of time there. While talking to the one dealer I commented....of all the dealers who show up you guys have got to have the worst job. He laughed and said.....we're always the last ones to have everything packed in the trailer after a show.

JeffinNZ
05-20-2013, 06:43 PM
Jim, you're finally paying what I do......:-)

Jim
05-20-2013, 07:28 PM
Jim, you're finally paying what I do......:-)

No, I ain't 'cause I ain't buyin' it!

otter5555
05-20-2013, 08:13 PM
When prices go back down let's all remember those who gouged us. There are a couple of LGS that won't get my business again because of their "black-market" pricing.


my LGS never raised prices. they've got my business.

TheDoctor
05-20-2013, 09:29 PM
My LGS kept their prices reasonable. Primers and powder went up a few bucks per 1000 or lb., but only a few. They WOULD ration how much you could buy, so as everyone had a fair chance to get some. Ammo went up a moderate amount in price, but this store has always been a bit high on ammo anyway. There are some shops and some "national" chain stores here that really were trying to scalp people. If my normal LGS will sell primers for $3.90 per hundred for CCI, the other ones can not expect me to believe that THEIR cost is $7.50 per hundred for Tula, trying to sell them for $90 a brick. Just ain't buying that. I can see distributors raising prices a little bit, thus my LGS price increase of a whopping 4 bucks a brick, but scalping is something else.

Love Life
05-20-2013, 09:31 PM
That is the beauty of having Guns and Ammo (LGS) in town. Their ammo and component prices have always been high. Decent prices on most pistols though...

Adam10mm
05-21-2013, 01:04 AM
The best way to SELL product is to ask a decent price. If dealers are not selling anything because their prices are out of line it's their own fault. If you are basing your price on what a few suckers are willing to pay you better be willing to wait for the next sucker to come along.
Problem there, as an ammo reloader, is my pricing means I sell out at every show but in times like these I can't resupply. I reluctantly keep my prices the same, despite the demand, instead of pricing the highest the market will bear. Reason being I want to be remembered by my customers as the business that stood their ground and didn't get greedy. But it may cost me my business. Luckily most understand the situation and that it takes time to get components to arrive and have more ammo to sell them. I take down names and contact information, then when I have ammo I go down the list and sell however much they want and take payment then. Whatever is left after the list I sell to the LGS. My .45 ACP 230gr LFP (Lee TC) is the hottest item right now. Retail is $40/100rd box and dealer is $32/100rd box. No brass, no bullets, no ammo. Press sits idle, even though it's paid off, it's costing me money, not making me money. I'm a different story trying to build a new brand after the old brand didn't work, but it's really the same for any small licensed reloader selling locals ammo.


It's funny... I didn't see many gun dealers willing to double the value of a (your) trade gun for their gun which they jacked up the price on.............. They would laugh when you wanted $500 for your $300 but got insulted if you offered them $300 for their $300 gun that they were asking $500 for.......
Used guns is where the money is. What I explain is this. I pay half of what I will list the gun for and probably get talked down a little bit. But it's cash paid to them on the spot for a quick dump of a firearm to a licensed dealer. If they want to make more money, they can contract me to sell it on consignment for 120 days at 20% fee. I'll buy a Remington 870 Express 12ga for $150 and retail it for $300, probably let it go for $250-270. If they consign with me and it sells for $250, I keep $50 and they get $200. $200 is more than $150 I pay outright. I try to get the highest dollar for them. The more I sell it for, the more I make and the more they get in return. That's why I love consignments. I get to sell guns for profit without capital investment.

With consignments being returned to the owner, a 4473 is required. Any 4473 gets run it's a transfer fee of $20. If they cancel the consignment before the 120 day contract is expired, they owe me $20 before I run the 4473 to return the firearm to them. If I couldn't sell the firearm within that 120 day term, I transfer it back to them on a 4473 for free.

Kent Fowler
05-21-2013, 02:34 PM
Was at the San Antonio gun show the other day and saw pretty much what the OP had observed. 100.00 bricks and guys leaving with the AR they came in with. I did mosey over to the dealer out of Katy, Tx that I had bought a new .380 from in January for 400.00 during the buying frenzy, which I thought was a pretty decent price for a Smith Bodyguard, at the time. Had to wait over an hour for my turn at their paperwork table as they were inundated with sales. Four months later he had only raised the price, on the same gun, 19 dollars, which goes to show, some dealers still have a sane business model and are doing landmark sales. Next time I'm going to Houston, I'm going to stop by their shop and see if they have that Walther PPS I've been wanting. OTOH,at the same show, I saw another dealer whom I had bought a pistol from at the Austin gun show in February. At the time of purchase, she said " our card machine is down and I will have to phone in your information". Five days later I get a call from the Visa folks saying some one out in Arizona tried to buy 400 dollars of goods online from Wal Mart. They turned the transaction down, thank goodness. Sure is a coincidence, don't you think? Cash or check only, from here on out.

TCLouis
05-22-2013, 12:15 AM
Dang, I have a Hakim I meant to unload during the frenzy and it sounds like I missed my chance to PROFIT BIG TIME.

Hey I was only gonna use the money to buy COWWs.