Yes, another 22lr thread

[historicfirearms]

I was under the assumption that the 22 ammo makers were putting out all they could, but after the conversation I had yesterday, I'm not sure now. While talking to my local gun dealer, he said something that makes me wonder. He said that his big distributor usually sold something like 250,000 bricks of 22 ammo each month before the current demand spike. The distributor is now only getting 10,000 bricks per month to sell.

What gives?

A couple things I thought of might explain it, but its just speculation. The first thing I thought of is that the ammo manufacturers are concentrating on production of centerfire ammo, maybe they can make more money that way? Of course, they would still have all the machinery to produce 22lr, but maybe they had to move manpower.

Maybe this particular distributor just isn't getting the ammo, and others are. I'm not sure how ammo distributors get their ammo allocation, but the gun dealer said that this was one of the largest distributors.

Any other explanations?

[tiwimon]

Something doesn't sound right, I heard somewhere that one 22lr manufacturer could make something like 2 million rounds a day, take 250,000 bricks and multiple that out at 500 rounds a brick, and thats 125 million rounds in a month just for this distributor?

I saw this in another forum
"Estimated Annual Production 2.5 Billon Rounds (Wikipedia)

That is Approx 13,700 bricks of 500 per day."


Taken from here http://rugerforum.net/ammo-dump/69235-22lr-production-math-not-pretty.html

[41 mag fan]

I wonder if it's just a culmination of everything combined. But you'd think that even if the U.S. manufacturers are going full tilt 24/7, and still not keeping up, that at least foreign ammo would be somewhat abundant. It would fill the gap that the U.S. makers can't fill.

[btroj]

I am sure the ammo companies are making it as fast as they can. Center fire and rimfire are made on different lines. Bullets for each are made on different lines.

One distributor sold 250 K bricks a month, before the panic. Before the panic is key, other distributors may have been selling far less than that. As the demand from other distributors increases the supply to his distributor dries up. He can no longer get all he can sell.

It is simple supply and demand. Demand is greater than supply, so we have shortages.

It really isn't that hard to understand, Is it?

[Love Life]

It really isn't that hard to understand, Is it?

Yes. Yes it is.

[gray wolf]

It is simple supply and demand. Demand is greater than supply, so we have shortages
So how come people can't find any ammo ?? --Hello [smilie=s:--
Sorry I ain't buying it.

[Rick N Bama]

This may not have any bearing on the subject, but I'm at my local Wal-Mart a couple times a week sometime around 6:30AM. By that time there are already 4 or 5 guys lined up to buy the day's supply of 22's should there be any. One guy tells me that he's just wanting a few to shoot, however, he's been in line every time I've been there for the past 2 or 3 months. I'm convinced that everyone is buying hoping to resell at a huge profit.

Rick

[bob208]

it mite have nothin to do with powder or priming or even manpower. it could have to do with lead and brass. boh are in short supply right now.

[imsoooted]

The odd thing is that I have some buddies in Canada and there doesn't seem to be a shortage there

[hardcase54]

imsoooted, my daughter,lives outside Toronto, and says the same thing. No shortage actually bought some on sale.

[frkelly74]

So , supply is intentionally choked down?

[oldred]

Rick in Bama nailed it, the low lifes who think they are going to make a huge profit from it accounts for most of the shortages. There is the rumor that a brick can be sold for over $100, and the fact that some idiots will/have pay(ed) that much only reinforces this, so even non-shooters are buying up every round they can, I personally know two different people who do this. When they get stuck with a bunch that they can't sell the shortages will ease off a bit but as of now they are actually selling some at big profits so there's no end in sight.

[km101]

My son lives in Wa. state and goes to Vancouver occasionally. I asked him to check a couple of gun shops to see how they are supplied. He says that they have fully stocked shelves. The clerks that he has talked with say that they know nothing about shortages or difficulty getting supplies. I specifically asked about SPP prices and he said that the store he checked had them for approx. $22.65 USD.

Now if I could just figure an inexpensive way to get them here! Does anyone know if you can legally bring primers & powder back across the border? Or would this freak out Customs and DHS? Just a thought. Certainly don't want to do something to get in trouble.

[imsoooted]

I know that hunters taking guns and ammo north have to ship them to the local RCMP You can't transport across the border. Coming south you ship from RCMP to ffl

[starmac]

Yes you can legally bring primers and powder across the border, if you were bringing it from he US to the us. Buying it in canada may open up a whole different can of wrms.

[MtGun44]

I wonder if there isn't a "cottage industry" of guys buying from Walmart and any other
source still selling for 'normalish' prices and reselling online for a huge profit? This
could be a large part of the problem. If they consistently intercept the whole ammo flow
into the retail stores like Walmart and Dick's, they CAUSE the shortage by emptying
the shelves, and then "solve" the shortage by selling it online on gunbroker.

Maybe there needs to be a polite discussion with these guys in the parking lot next
time about this sort of behavior. I'll bet if the problem was explained to them properly
they'd stop doing it.

Bill

[oldred]

I wonder if there isn't a "cottage industry" of guys buying from Walmart and any other
source still selling for 'normalish' prices and reselling online for a huge profit?

Bill


That is exactly what I was talking about and the two I mentioned are doing just that! They hit Wal-Mart and any place else they can find and I know at least one of them has inside help to get ammo before it even hits the shelves at Wal-Mart

[garandsrus]

I know that hunters taking guns and ammo north have to ship them to the local RCMP You can't transport across the border. Coming south you ship from RCMP to ffl

You can transport a firearm and ammunition across the border as long as you are following the laws for both countries. For example, pistols are generally not allowed in Canada, so you can't cross the border with one. I took a semi-auto shotgun across with no trouble but don't know if you could take a semi-auto rifle.

There are forms you need to fill out on both the US and Canadian side of the border. It really wasn't too much of a hassle.

[1Shirt]

Somehow, things that used to be rotten in Denmark seem to have crossed the Atlantic!
1Shirt!

[Swamp Man]

That is exactly what I was talking about and the two I mentioned are doing just that! They hit Wal-Mart and any place else they can find and I know at least one of them has inside help to get ammo before it even hits the shelves at Wal-MartCall the head office in Ar. and tell them which stores this is taking place and they will look into it and fire the salesperson.

[Rex]

Pull up Gunbroker and do a search for .22 ammo and see what you find. If everyone would just stop buying any of it for 60 days things would be a lot different. I need water and I need food, I like to shoot but I won't die if I do without it a couple of months.

[jcwit]

Come on guys, they're just out to make a buck or 2 on the side, as I've been told here and on other forums.

After all its all about a free market, or so I'm also told.

[Superfly]

Form 6 from the atf to bring ammo into the USA

[starmac]

It is a free market, and those that are buying it all up to make big bucks can get stuck with it too. It is our choice to buy or try and help them get stuck with it, and let things return to normal.

[jcwit]

It is a free market, and those that are buying it all up to make big bucks can get stuck with it too. It is our choice to buy or try and help them get stuck with it, and let things return to normal.

LOL That'll work!

[shooter93]

I am my no means an expert and all I can tell you is what I got first hand and I believe it's a combonation of many little things. There is definately a "cottage industry" going for one thing. The local Wal-Mart had no limit at the begining. Then during one days rush the Dept head happened to ask two guys who literally were taking every box of 22 shells they had what they were shooting and what league they were in......thier answer....we never fired a gun in our lives but you should see what these bring on the net. Not to bright of them maybe but that Wal-Mart put a limit on how many anyone could buy at a time after that.
A bit second hand but I have a very good friend who knows the Federal ammo people very well. They told him they were running at absolute capacity making 22 shells but their orders have been staggering. He surmised but couldn't prove that some distributors who were ordering more than they ever had were using a "secondary" market or simply drastically raising prices because they could.
It seems very believble to me as I hear of many people who will pay those prices. As it was mentioned if people would just stop paying those prices then they would drop like a stone. I'm generally pretty well stocked but ofcourse like to re-supply as I shoot quite a bit in the Summer. I've had no trouble getting stuff at non gouged prices......the trick....back orders. Since I'm not short that works fine for me. Everything has shown up within or very close to their time frame. I do believe it will be calmed down by mid to late Summer until the gun ban Bill hits the Senate floor again after the mid-term elections....then....here we go again.

[xacex]

Form 6 from the atf to bring ammo into the USA

What about powder and primers?

[Frank46]

Wally World hasn't had any centerfire ammo except the same few boxes I normally see. This is from December till yestarday. Now Academy in the next town over has a quite good selection except for .22,38 spec, 357, 40 s&w and of course 45acp as I was there today just out of curiosity have got my eyeballs dialated for new specs. Frank

[Swamp Man]

Guys I was checking Wal mart from time to time for 22lr but was only buying one box weather it was 50 or 100 count. I thought I was doing a good thing by leaving some for others that may need them. But from now on if I see any I'm buying as many as I can just to keep them out of the hands of resellers.

[archmaker]

Remember we are about 4-5 months into this mess.

Big businesses just don't react that fast.

Someone has to convince the CEO to convince the board to hire more people and expand operations. The Board wants to have a study done by outside consultants, who need to get the engagement letter past legal, then the consultants come in look at the demand to make some wild **** guesses (WAG) and inform the company they should increase production by doing X and Y and Z. Management then spend two months looking it over, to see how they want to do what the consultants want to be done, and then they go to the board to get approval to spend money and hire people. Then we have to get purchasing involved and more lawers and more people and then we get more equipment. Meanwhile, HR is now putting out request to hire people to do the work, and looking at who needs to get promoted to manage the new people or hire managers.

All the while the CEO is thinking 'This crazy demand cycle has to slow down, how far I don't know, but do I really want to try to meet the current demand, or what I think the future sustainable demand will be?'

In the late 70's there was an oil boom, around south Oklahoma. People were making money, and spending it left and right. Machines shops were popping up everywhere to meet the demand, then it went bust in the early 80's and the guys who had machine shops, and private planes, and big houses. Found themselves working in the only remaining machine shop, and filing for bankruptcy.

[oldtrucks]

It seems to be easing a bit where I live, I've been able to find primers and powder on some store shelves. In CA pending legislation has people hoarding anything gun related, so to find anything is a good sign. Some of the gougers that have been selling on forums are starting to drop prices, not sure if that's related to inventories increasing or people finally boycotting their prices

[Ole]

Let's say total 22LR production in the USA was 20 million rounds a day.

It would take the total factory production lines over 15 days to make one round for each person in the USA.

People shopping for 22LR aren't looking to buy one round, they are looking to buy 300, 500, or however many rounds the shop will sell them.

So if my production #'s are close (no idea if they are), it would take about 750 days of production @ 20 million/day to get a single 500 round value pack in every American's hands.

[starmac]

And some people are sitting on 25,000 rounds and buying more everytime it hits the shelves.

[bobthenailer]

At my local Wal Mart the ammo is stocked at night, a person who works in sporting goods dept and I sort of developed a semi friend ship with, as i used to buy 22 ammo almost every week for several years, said when they get there most if not all the ammo that was stocked that night is gone by the time they start working at 7:00 am. i personaly havent gotten any 22 ammo from WW for at least 4 months. I suspect who ever has something to do with stocking the ammo calls there friends and they come right away and buy it all up ? with a limit of 3 boxes per person.
Ive seen center fire pistol ammo avalible for me to buy on at least on 5 occasions in the popular calibers 380,9mm,40, 357,44,45LC & 45 ACP during the same 4 month period.

[dakotashooter2]

Supply and demand.....the supply of "suckers" is tapping out.

I agree with Ole about production. 20 million rounds is 40,000 bricks. There are 131,806 licensed firearms and ammunition dealers in the US. Figuring only 10% (which is probably low) or 13,180 as the largest ammunition dealers that is only 3 bricks per day per major dealer. That means they supply 1 maybe 2 customers a day. Also consider that a very large percentage of buyers are probably stockpiling and trying to by more in the last few months than they have purchased in as many years.... Until those buyer "max out" the supply will struggle to catch up. Consider too that some of those rounds are probably being exported and some may be going to the military further reducing the domestic supply. When supply catches up to demand their will be a lot of buying for a year then I suspect a drastic drop in demand as people use up some of their stockpile before buying more. That may take some people several years. I suspect in the future most of the dedicated shooters will maintain a good stockpile and continue to buy their daily need.....




It seems to be easing a bit where I live, I've been able to find primers and powder on some store shelves. In CA pending legislation has people hoarding anything gun related, so to find anything is a good sign. Some of the gougers that have been selling on forums are starting to drop prices, not sure if that's related to inventories increasing or people finally boycotting their prices

[subsonic]

Just an FYI, you gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.

Those guys sitting on big piles of ammo are about to find this out first hand.

What goes up, must come down and the "over-run" on things should make for a nice buyer's market soon.

[Sensai]

I'm not one of their biggest fans, but I wonder what the BATFE would do with information about people without FFLs buying and reselling ammo. At least buying with the intent to resell. It wouldn't be too hard to find out where and when the bigger auction site ammo sellers are turning over their stock.

[subsonic]

ATF doesn't care. IRS might.

[Hogdaddy]

Just an FYI, you gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.
Those guys sitting on big piles of ammo are about to find this out first hand.

What goes up, must come down and the "over-run" on things should make for a nice buyer's market soon.

Hope so, In a big way ; )
H/D

[Love Life]

I'm sure the IRS would be very interested. With all the ways they are using to snoop around now, I would higly recommend they pay the appropriate taxes on the profits they made. At some point they will find out you made a killing, didn't claim it, and then they'll bend you over for back taxes plus penalties. I give the middle finger to alot of things, but the IRS is not one of them.

You don't mess 2 entities in life. God and the IRS.

[Old Caster]

People I know that hardly ever shoot or buy ammo that have me heard talk about shooting are coming to me in droves just because they think they should know where to get it. They aren't turning it over but just hoarding it and will buy anything they see no matter the cost. As was previously said, don't worry, this will all pass as it isn't the first time this has happened and won't be the last. If you guys need 22 ammo, CMP has Aguila SE for sale for about $285 for a case including shipping at this time and it will be delivered around October and they won't take the money out of your account until the ammo is shipped.

[Ohio Rusty]

Where I live in Logan, it's my understanding from some of the Wally World folks that work in sporting goods that the ammo never makes it to the shelves when it comes off the truck. Apparently the employees or their friends are buying it all from the workers right off the truck is my speculation. The sporting goods people I know there said there hasn't been a box of .22, .223, .7.62x39 or any pistol ammo for at least 5 months.
I have ammo, and I have reloading goods, so I'm really not worried about it for the rest of the year.
Ohio Rusty ><>

[Rick N Bama]

If you guys need 22 ammo, CMP has Aguila SE for sale for about $285 for a case including shipping at this time and it will be delivered around October and they won't take the money out of your account until the ammo is shipped.

Is club membership still a requirment to buy from the CMP?


Where I live in Logan, it's my understanding from some of the Wally World folks that work in sporting goods that the ammo never makes it to the shelves when it comes off the truck. Apparently the employees or their friends are buying it all from the workers right off the truck is my speculation. The sporting goods people I know there said there hasn't been a box of .22, .223, .7.62x39 or any pistol ammo for at least 5 months.
I have ammo, and I have reloading goods, so I'm really not worried about it for the rest of the year.
Ohio Rusty ><>

I heard through the grapevine that a couple of local Wal-Mart Employees are now looking for jobs due to supplying their buddies this way.

[Phoenix]

The IRS doesn't care either. Until after Apr15 next year. That is when they are supposed to declare any additional income. Even then cash transactions are very hard to track.

[Boyscout]

I resold a box of 40 S&W last week for the price I paid for it. As soon as the rain clears, I will be outside casting lots of different calibers. The first one heated up will be my Lee 401-175TC. I don't even own a 40 S&W but two of my sons that I shoot with do. I have not seen a brick of 22LR for sale for months but I buy one or two boxes whenever I see it available. I am now trying to recruit those I shoot with to start looking for lead.

[jcwit]

Is club membership still a requirment to buy from the CMP?



I heard through the grapevine that a couple of local Wal-Mart Employees are now looking for jobs due to supplying their buddies this way.

And now they're probably collecting unemployment at a little less than they were making.

Regarding the CMP, in a word YUP!

I see you're Air Force, join the American Legion, they need you anyway.

[Blacksmith]

Here is a link to the CMP eligibility requirements:
http://www.odcmp.com/Sales/eligibility.htm

You can join the Garand Collectors Club for $25 online, lots of other affiliated clubs check the listings under Clubs, as well as affiliates including:

These special affiliates include: Congressionally chartered veterans' organizations such as the VFW, AL, DAV, MCL, etc. U.S. Military services (active or reserves), National Guard, to include retirees. Professional 501(c)3 law enforcement organizations and associations such as the FOP, NAPO, NSA, etc.

Also note the Marksmanship requirement is met by Military Service as well as other ways and is waved for those over 60.

Qualify and you can buy ammo and Garands and other guns. The only downside is they currently have 18,000 orders so delivery times have stretched.

[375supermag]

Getting back to .22LR availability...

I found Remington bulk packs (525) for sale and in stock at a LGS Friday.

$32.99 each. No limit...there were about 8-10 boxes on the shelf.

I have quite a bit of .22LR on hand, so I didn't feel the need to buy any.

I haven't bought .22LR in a long time. Is that price out of line???

I stopped by again today to check their powder stocks...basically nothing on hand. The Remington bulk packs were still on the shelf.

[Rick N Bama]

I see you're Air Force, join the American Legion, they need you anyway.

I'm an Air Force veteran '67-'71. After Texas for training I was in Viet Nam, Florida & New Mexico.

Rick

[jcwit]

Then the Legion needs you Rick.

12 more days and I help place flags at our local cemetery, couple days later I check the rifles for operation "Garands", load the clips for Memorial Day. I can no longer march but ride the AL float and participate in the ceremony at the cemetery on Memorial, I'm part of the firing squad.

Just being a member of the Legion puts you right into the qualifications needed for purchasing at the CMP.

U.S. Army 1965 - 1973

[lylejb]

Getting back to .22LR availability...

I found Remington bulk packs (525) for sale and in stock at a LGS Friday.

$32.99 each. No limit...there were about 8-10 boxes on the shelf.

I have quite a bit of .22LR on hand, so I didn't feel the need to buy any.

I haven't bought .22LR in a long time. Is that price out of line???

I stopped by again today to check their powder stocks...basically nothing on hand. The Remington bulk packs were still on the shelf.


Before the latest mess, I was paying $20 / brick or bulk pack, on sale. That was my target price. I would watch/ wait, for my local stores to put it on sale.

Remington wasn't my favorite, I usually wound up with CCI blazer or FED or Win.

I've never paid $30 for a brick of 22's