Where has all the ammo has gone?

[Down South]

I just read this article. "Copied and pasted below". I don't know if this guy is on the up and up or not but he may be spot on.

http://www.activeresponsetraining.net/where-has-all-the-ammo-gone

Copied from Link above:
I spent some time at the Rangemaster Conference a couple weeks ago talking to people who are much smarter than I am. These folks work for major ammunition companies and deal with the largest ammunition wholesalers in the country. They weren’t very optimistic about ammunition availability getting better anytime soon.


The general consensus was that our current shortages have a vastly different cause than past shortages. In the past (2008 for instance), ammo shortages were driven by “preppers” and “gun nuts”…people concerned about the future in terms of economic collapse or potentially restrictive new legislation. These folks made up a very small percentage of the population, but they bought ammunition by the case, drying up available supplies. Once these folks had the stockpiles they wanted, they stopped buying and the ammunition supply came back to “normal”.


The current shortage is being driven by different forces. It seems that right now, every gun owner is worried about the same things the “gun nuts” worried about in 2008. These average American gun owners usually only buy a couple of boxes of ammunition every year. Now they are buying a couple boxes of ammunition every time they visit WalMart or their local sporting goods store. And there seems to be no end to their desire to keep buying. $20 a week in ammunition doesn’t take a lot out of the family budget, so every time these gun owners see available ammunition, they snatch it up a couple boxes at a time.


The net effect of 100 million gun owners buying a couple boxes of ammunition every week drains the system far worse than 1 million “preppers” buying a couple of cases of ammunition each.


All of the ammunition companies are at full capacity, running three shifts of production seven days a week. They won’t expand production lines because they fear the same legislation that all the gun owners worry about. No ammunition company is willing to invest the capital in new equipment if they are unsure how future legislation will affect the ability to purchase ammunition. So, the shortage continues…


Most of the folks with whom I spoke told me that if the demand stopped right now (which won’t happen), it will take ammo companies 1-2 years to catch up on current backorders. We aren’t likely to see “normal” ammunition supplies for a long time.


Your best bet is to substitute dry fire and force on force training with airsoft weapons for a lot of your live fire training. In my opinion, it isn’t worth paying $2 a round for .45 practice ammunition. Do a little live fire training to keep your skills up, but supplement it with dry fire and airsoft.


Things are going to be bad for a long time…

[uscra112]

I think I'd agree. But also it appears that there are scalpers buying it up to resell on auction sites.

Certainly it is fact that the distribution pipeline had 1-2 years of supply in it, and that was drained dry in a month. Until the drain valve is closed, the pipeline cannot refill, and the current mood is keeping the drain valve wide open.

During WW2 there was no civilian ammo from early 1942 until late 1946. It won't be that bad, but common ammo won't be plentiful until Obama is gone, is my expectation.

The good thing is that all that ammo is dispersed and in the hands of the public, and can't be sequestered by the Government.

[Four-Sixty]

I have a relative at Wal-Mart who tells me a shift manager at one of the major manufacturers is trolling forums to feed the panic. Apparently, he likes all of the overtime he is getting. The jerk!

[Four-Sixty]

It is so easy to lie on an internet forum. I do not mean to cast any doubt upon the OP. I would just ask folks dwelling on this panic to not take anything they find on the net without thinking a bit for themselves. The internet can fan these rumors out of control. Try to be objective guys. Could someone be playing you?

(To clarify, my previous post was total bull. I made it up, probably like a lot of other things you see on internet forums.)

[Harter66]

Let's see 7million NICS in 3 months, 4 million guns in 3 months, 1000 round each . Pretty easy to see where its gone.....

[NSP64]

My basement!

[runfiverun]

sounds like we really need another manufacturer or two to start up.
they are gonna bring twinkies back.
if there is a demand someone is going to fill it. [or should]
all those guns people bought are going to need ammunition for the next 20 or so years.

[Love Life]

Twinkies are coming back? Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeee!!!!!

[LUCKYDAWG13]

64848I have the last box of real
Twinkies in my freezer
will trade for AR mags
:bigsmyl2:

[dale2242]

It sounds like your source is feeding the panic.
I certainly am no expert, but I think it will recover sooner than 1-2 years.
When this big push for gun legislation is over the panic will subside.....dale

[freebullet]

I am somewhat immune from this panic now, but I really feel for the kids. I just seen on the news that the local boy scouts are begging for 22lr ammo for junior shooting events for the summer. I don't shoot much 22 anymore, now that my nephew is grown n nieces moved away. I was thinking of donating some of my modest stock to them, I hate to think kids won't be able to learn to shoot and gun safety because *****yos are buying what's available to gouge on the internet shame on them.

[oldred]

until Obama is gone.

Oooh man, is that ever music to my ears!!!!

[462]

Janet Napolitano's buying it all.

[Blacksmith]

The posted projection for delivery of .22 ammo on the CMP web site is 6 to 12 months. So order today and you may not get it until next year. I ordered some when they expected to deliver in October of this year. Now I am wondering if I need to order next years supply now so I will have something to shoot in 2014.

[Swamp Man]

Lots of ammo stock is already starting to come back. 223,9mm & 22lr will be the last from what I'm seeing I think it will take a while but I don't see it taking more then 6-8 months.

[Alvarez Kelly]

I saw 9mm at my LGS today. I didn't need any... so I DIDN'T buy it! :-)

[Swamp Man]

I saw 9mm at my LGS today. I didn't need any... so I DIDN'T buy it! :-)

I've been watching the ammo shock but not buying it. I have enough to make it thou this ammo rush. Even when I've seen 22lr I left them for others that may need them.

[Down South]

I found a few boxes of 50, 22 rim fire the other day but it was about 10 bucks a box. I didn't bite. I need some but I have a buddy who owns a gun shop that is supposed to hold some 22 value pack ammo for me. He has not gotten a shipment of any 22 ammo in at least three weeks. I have a Ruger mark III Hunter ordered with him too. It's been on order for about eight weeks. He thought it would have came in by now but it hasn't. He did say a few Ruger revolvers are starting to show up.
I bought a 550 box of the cheap Remington gold bullets a while back and paid too much for it. I'll hold off on shooting 22's until I can score some ammo at a decent price. I really wanted to break the wife in on the 22 pistol I can't get with ammo that I can't find.
I don't need any pistol or revolver ammo. I cast and load for everything I have plus I have a good stash of brass. I am short on LP primers. I have some of those on back order. I ordered back around the first part of last month from Garf's. I have some left but if I run out, I've got a several K of LP Mag primers that I can rework loads with.

[Swamp Man]

Maybe we should buy any 22lr we see at a good price and offer them to other members at cost plus shipping or as a trade.

[runfiverun]

I had some accidentally fall in a box yesterday.
how they did that from the basement to the garage I don't know

[44man]

I don't know how true this is but came from a distant family member in Ohio that is very high in finances, he was a millionaire in his 20's. (No, it did not rub off!) [smilie=b:
He said Soros has so much invested in the ammo companies he has power. He instructed them to stop making civilian ammo and concentrate on military, Ag dept and homeland security.
Why is the agriculture dept buying guns and ammo?

[subsonic]

It is all of the folks that bought the guns. Most people pick up a box or two of ammo when they buy a gun. And then they may buy some for another gun they own while they are in there. Then there are people who are worried and buy more, preppers, etc.

I disagree that ammo sales will stay high. You can only shoot one gun at a time and there has not been a substantial increase in the number of gun owners, only the number of guns owned by each person. I think that by this summer, you will see a lot of gun stores closed due to lack of business and lack of inventory which feed each other. If they don't have anything, customers won't come to buy stuff. There have also been a bunch of small shops open recently, which have little capital to see a them through a dry spell.

[HATCH]

My friend Paul purchased a new 7 shot 686 Smith. He bought the last two boxes of ammo the store had (PSA in Columbia).
He went straight to their indoor range and shot both boxes.
He hasn't been able to buy any more cause he can't find any more.
He called me up and asked if I would loan him some of my reloads until he could buy factory to replace it.
I told him no but I would give him 1/2 the price he paid for his paperweight..... LOL

There is light at the end of the tunnel and its not the Obama Train either.
Several things are being factored in.
(1) How much ammo you really need?? - preppers have already stocked piled what they need. What you see is people that weren't prepared buying ammo. They will eventually purchase enough and stop buying every box they find.
(2) Bills due - a lot of people paid way too much for their "assault weapons" and they will have bills that come due. They will start selling them off. Since the AWB isn't going to happen they will be worth less now...
(3) Production of supplies will finally hit 100% - In the last month all the factories were gearing up to do 100%. Before most were just around 50% of capacity. So we should see more ammo every week

If you sit at a all you can eat buffet you will get full and have to push away. Now some people can eat only a little bit before they push away, while others can eat a lot so they sit longer. This is the same with the people buying ammo.
At one point you willl have to push away. Either you can't afford any more, or you got what you think is enough, or you physically can't store any more. One of those 3 things will eventually happen.
For me I am done buying all ammo except for 22lr. I have found that I really need about 20K more rounds of it. The 3K rounds I currently have will be exhausted in 6 months time or less. My son only shoots 22lr (he is 9)
He would shoot a whole box of winchester 333 each time we went to the range. With no replacements to be found I have limited him to 100rds of 22lr.

[Case Stuffer]

I agree that the prime issue is all of the new firearm owner.shooters and reloaders. There is a rather large ammo reloading operation which has been in business for around 35 years. I have know the owners since it was a two man operation in the garage of one of the parners. Both were in law in enforement and were soon supplying local police/ sheriif deptments, local ranges and many of the local competition PPC and IPSC shooters. They have grown to rather major ammo source but like others are having a difficult time meeting the increased demands. I was able to pick up some primers there yesterday and they even had 525 rounds boxs of 22LR. There have been many post here that indicate the supply situation is improving. One of the gun shops 20 miles away had a small but decent selection of powder and I heard them tell several looking for 22 ammon that it was on a truck to be delivered last evening so be there early this morning.

I waited 7 weeks for an instock powder purchase to be delived and it was not even my first three powder choices. One week after delivery I found WW231 ,my first choice ordered it and had it 6 days later.

Old saying that it is always darkest right before the dawn.

[captaint]

I agree with dale2242 - When folks see their AR's are not going to be banned, things will be on their way to getting back to normal. It'll take a little while to catch up, but it will happen.
A little patience and sensible buying will help. Mike

[subsonic]

As far as ARs go, the fat lady hasn't finished singing just yet.

[Ohio Rusty]

I was in the pantry yesterday and I saw a Xerox cardboard box on a pantry shelf in a back corner. I didn't remember what was in it, so I pulled the box out and there were several boxes of 12 gauge slugs, 4 boxes of 12 gauge 4 buck buckshot loads, a couple of full unopened antique boxes of 20 gauge shells and 12 gauge slugs in paper shells, a few black powder trinkets and two empty cans of GOEX 3F, and a full, unopened 550 round brick of Remington .22 hollowpoints !! I bet that box has been there 5 or 6 years or more and I forgot all about it being in the pantry. The price tag on the 22's was $7.77 -- grand opening special at Walmart. I had a second box of those I remember ... the step son may have shot those up. All of that was a surprising find !!
Ohio Rusty ><>

Hydrostatic shock doesn't kill deer ..... I do.