WILCO
02-02-2013, 06:45 AM
Taking a lead from our valued member Jim, I played the "Google" game and found some links to complete the story.
As originally posted on Facebook by Valley Guns II:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Valley-Guns-II/200351049990151#!/pages/Valley-Guns-II/200351049990151
Attention F.B. fans: to follow will be several IMPORTANT Info updates about the status of the gun industry currently, followed by an INVENTORY UPDATE: 1) We traveled to Texas for Industry meetings concerning the shortages, here's what we were told. Smith & Wesson-is running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortage...s. RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days. FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1. Remington-Maxed out! Armalite: Maxed out. DPMS: Can't get enough parts to produce any more product. COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by Bolt carrier's. LWRC:Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can't get enough gun quality steel to make barrels. Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind. AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ of 1 BILLION rnds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line. MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quanties of magpul anytime soon. RELOADERS!!!! ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra's for reloading purposes....it could be 6-9 months b/f things get caught up. Sorry for the bleek news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted. To follow is our inventory update for 1/26/13. Please share this info with your shooting buddies. Shoot safe!
Then it goes to Bob Owens:
http://www.bob-owens.com/2012/12/something-funny-happened-on-the-way-to-the-tyranny/
Something funny happened on the way to tyranny
Written By: Bob - Dec• 31•12
I dropped my car off this morning at my mechanic’s, as the clutch appeared to be on its last legs. Being a beautiful morning in the mid-40s, I decided to walk home, and soak in some of the small-town downtown ambiance along the way. The sleepy antique stores were not seeing much business, and I nodded to the painting crew who was outlining the wooden window frames of the bakery in brilliant blue paint as I passed by.
Most of the downtown shops, in fact, weren’t doing much business except the two gun stores. I’d been in one several days ago to pick a .22LR for an article I’d be writing for Shooting Illustrated, and decided to stop in at the other to see what the current political environment had left behind.
There were no less than six clerks working feverishly with the dozen or so customers, so I simply stepped to the side and walked the aisles. The cases of ammunition that typically lined the far wall were picked to pieces. There was a 100-round case of .50 BMG, and cases of European shotshells suitable for small game. The .223 Remington, 5.56 NATO, 7.62×39, 7.62 NATO, and 7.62x54R had sold out long ago, along with the bulk 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP.
A few pump shotguns remained along with a smattering of deer rifles, single-shots, and longer double-barreled shotguns suitable only for trap or skeet. Even the semi-automatic .22LR rifles like Ruger 10/22s were gone, along with all but one BX-25 magazine.
The customers in the shop were picking through what remained; lever-action rifles, oddball shotguns, and the smattering of name-brand centerfire pistols. One man was attempting to trade in an antique double-barrel shotgun for something more current.
I did speak to one harried clerk, briefly.
They didn’t know when they’d be getting anything back in stock, from magazines to rifles to pistols. Manufacturers were running full-bore, but couldn’t come close to keeping up with market demand. It wasn’t just the AR-15s, the AK-pattern rifles, the M1As, and the FALs that were sold out. It really hit me when I realized that the World War-era M1 Garands , M1 carbines, and Enfield .303s were gone, along with every last shell. Ubiquitous Mosin-Nagants—of which every gun store always seems to have 10-20—were gone. So was their ammo. Only a dust free space marked their passing. I’ve never seen anything like it.
Every weapon of military utility designed within the past 100+ years was gone. This isn’t a society stocking up on certain guns because they fear they may be banned. This is a society preparing for war.
I wonder if this is what it felt like during the time of the Powder Alarm, and fear politicians both sides of the aisle are no more speaking the same language as most Americans as Gage was unable to think like the Colonials. There is an earnestness now on both sides, and a great chance for unintended consequences.
Tread carefully.
Then it goes to Guns and Ammo:
http://www.gunsandammo.com/2013/01/30/industry-report-rise-in-gun-sales-prompting-industry-chaos/
Industry Report: Rise in Gun Sales Prompts Industry Chaos
by Dylan Polk | January 30, 2013
Before December 2012, the firearms industry was riding out one of its best sales seasons of all time. Indeed, gun companies raked in the money thrown at them by eager consumers, resulting in not just the highest number of background checks in a single day—the FBI reported 154,873 background check requests on Black Friday—but also the best year for gun sales in recorded history.
To say then the gun industry was doing pretty well would be an understatement, and from the looks of things, it would take a real catastrophe to really change things.
And as we’re all painfully aware, that’s exactly what happened. Right around the time sales began to peak, a horrible tragedy suddenly put guns in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons, and all of a sudden those sales numbers either seemed trite in comparison, or were used to reflect what some talking heads deemed a violent, paranoid sect of American culture.
A proposed ban and other legislative regulations on firearm ownership has therefore sent dealers and companies into a frenzy, especially those that almost exclusively deal with semi-auto rifles that are so commonly referred to as “assault weapons.” These rifles—as well as all the high capacity magazines that go with them—have skyrocketed in value due to the unprecedented demand. In fact, it’s not uncommon to walk into your local gun store and find the ammo shelf almost completely picked over, or find that companies and dealers backlogging more requests than they can meet.
“The tactical firearms marketplace is certainly no stranger to turmoil—look what happened during 1989, 1994, 2004, and 2008,” said S.P. Fjestad, author and publisher of Blue Book of Gun Values. “The difference between what’s going on now and what happened back then is how fast things have changed. Tactical firearms consumers used to take months to react to factors within the marketplace—now it can happen almost overnight!”
Indeed, the industry was almost immediately sent into a frenzy after the Sandy Hook shootings on Dec. 14. According to The Associated Press, the FBI reported the week following Dec. 14 saw the highest spike in background checks for a week-long period since 1998; the second-highest came not long after, when President Barack Obama announced his administration would be pushing gun control legislation during his second term. Those numbers continued to climb into the new year, CNN reports, with eight of the 10 highest days for gun sales recorded by the FBI.
“After the Newtown tragedy, it was clear that an assault weapons ban became a very serious focus of the White House and debates intensified on Capitol Hill, ” Rommel Dionisio, a Wedbush Securities analyst, told CNN. “That led to consumers flocking to stores to buy guns before they could be banned.”
That is, if they’re even able to get their hands on a gun. Public demand has outpaced companies’ ability to keep up, resulting in thousands of backlogged orders. Glock, for example, has a 10-month backlog, according to CBS Atlanta.
Demand for AR-15 variants is even higher. Earlier this month, Stag Arms reported two years of back orders on its rifles, prompting the company to not accept any new orders, according to The Boston Globe; the company has even gone so far as to recruit office workers to help packing and shipping in an attempt to beat any new restrictions that may be enacted in the near future. In the same article, Smith & Wesson noted $332.7 million in backlogged orders—nearly double its backlogged orders in 2011—and Springfield Armory also pledged to boost production through outside vendors and its own facilities.
Similarly, ammunition sales have skyrocketed to the point that both companies and vendors cannot keep up.
“We are hearing of spot shortages of some calibers of ammunition at retail,” said the National Shooting Sports Foundation in a statement. “Demand has been high for several years. America’s ammunition makers are working hard to safely produce and ship the quality and quantity of ammunition to meet that demand.”
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported area vendors staying up late to place orders with wholesalers while supplies last. What’s more alarming is how the shortage affects law enforcement agencies, which according to WTHR-TV have had trouble trying to maintain a steady supply of ammo. Some departments have even had to cancel training exercises.
“In years past, you could be looking at one, maybe two months. Now you’re looking at one, maybe two years,” Franklin (Ind.) Police Chief Tim O’Sullivan told WTHR-TV.
The frenzied demand has in turn affected firearms’ values. Blue Book of Gun Values released a series of charts putting the public firearms demand in a visual format. The chart on the left displays the prices for four different AR-15s, AK-47 imports, three different high-capacity semi-auto pistol variations and high-capacity magazines, as well as both .223 Rem./5.56 NATO and 9mm ammunition.
As you can see, the prices for all—besides S&W semi-auto pistols—saw an increase between Dec. 14 and Dec. 22. After a slight dip, prices for most models continued to increase, though Bushmaster ARs saw a decline.
Ultimately, the fluctuation in prices completely disregards the true value of any given firearm.
“When fear, greed and speculation are the dominating factors for the demand of a specific firearms configuration, values are almost impossible to accurately ascertain,” Fjestad said. “It’s like a gun’s value is almost forgotten about, and price becomes the only consideration.”
Long term, Fjestad said, this could spell disaster for gun companies, which could see the value of its products drop dramatically.
“This is the largest and hardest stampeding ‘buffalo herd’ (tactical firearms consumers) I’ve ever seen in my 30-plus years in the firearms industry,” Fjestad said. “Are they destined to run off the cliff and plunge to their deaths? We’re going to find out in the next six months.”
And lastly, it went onto Best Defense LLC:
http://www.bestdefensellc.com/frenzy/
Buying frenzy result: Unobtainium Ammo & AR's
Folks, we are in the midst of a perfect storm that’s making it hard to find those AR style semi rifles we’ve grown to like so much. In addition it’s darn near impossible to to find ammo to practice with. This graph comes from an article in Guns and Ammo on the very same topic.
I consider myself to be a gun nerd. Yep, completely immersed in the firearms culture and have been for many years now. While I’m not as bad as the savant-like mouth breather that would look at a 30 year old sniper rifle and quote chapter and verse on the various permutations of scope turret cap development, I do consider myself a somewhat reasonably knowledgeable individual (RKI) when it comes to trends in the industry.
That said, I’ve lived through several ups and downs in the market having seen fluctuations in supply and demand over the past 25 years or so. What we’ve seen in the last 3 months however I have NEVER seen. I briefly looked online right after the election results came in back in November thinking that perhaps I should order a few more rounds and/or parts but after checking inventory levels, I decided there was no rush and I went to sleep. That very next morning what I found when I looked again what I found was that everyone was out of stock. On everything. This lasted but a few weeks and started to show signs of any rush to calm down when the unthinkable occurred.
Some disturbed & deranged person goes on a murderous rampage in Sandy Hook CT and immediately afterward the executive branch started making serious noise about executive orders, gun control and further restrictions on firearms in the US. Of course now we live in a 24-hour real-time information cycle so we’re’ instantly getting reporting and the news networks are feasting on the sensationalized tragedy.
Well over a month later and I have clients coming to NRA Basic Pistol Classes with $35 a box (of 25rds) personal defense ammunition instead of FMJ because they can’t find anything else at the stores. Excuse me??? .223 rifle ammo? Forgetaboutit! I’m making recommendations to go all .22lr for training purposes and now we can’t even source a decent amount of .22lr in any quantity without 8-12 weeks of lead time and a 3X variable in price to the consumer.
Hang tight, conserve your round counts and train smart folks. I’ve always said that dry fire practice, (of course with unloaded guns), not too hard to assure that these days ), is a great way to continue fundamentals & tactics training. Now is the time to think hard about incorporating the use of radical alternatives like full-scale size & weight air-soft models, laser training guns like that the Next Level Training SIRT etc. into your training regimen. Best Defense LLC uses all of the above and is considering specific courses based on the use of these types of alternatives.
We’re in this for the long haul and you never know it is that you’ll actually NEED that ammo…
As originally posted on Facebook by Valley Guns II:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Valley-Guns-II/200351049990151#!/pages/Valley-Guns-II/200351049990151
Attention F.B. fans: to follow will be several IMPORTANT Info updates about the status of the gun industry currently, followed by an INVENTORY UPDATE: 1) We traveled to Texas for Industry meetings concerning the shortages, here's what we were told. Smith & Wesson-is running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortage...s. RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days. FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1. Remington-Maxed out! Armalite: Maxed out. DPMS: Can't get enough parts to produce any more product. COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by Bolt carrier's. LWRC:Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can't get enough gun quality steel to make barrels. Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind. AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ of 1 BILLION rnds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line. MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quanties of magpul anytime soon. RELOADERS!!!! ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra's for reloading purposes....it could be 6-9 months b/f things get caught up. Sorry for the bleek news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted. To follow is our inventory update for 1/26/13. Please share this info with your shooting buddies. Shoot safe!
Then it goes to Bob Owens:
http://www.bob-owens.com/2012/12/something-funny-happened-on-the-way-to-the-tyranny/
Something funny happened on the way to tyranny
Written By: Bob - Dec• 31•12
I dropped my car off this morning at my mechanic’s, as the clutch appeared to be on its last legs. Being a beautiful morning in the mid-40s, I decided to walk home, and soak in some of the small-town downtown ambiance along the way. The sleepy antique stores were not seeing much business, and I nodded to the painting crew who was outlining the wooden window frames of the bakery in brilliant blue paint as I passed by.
Most of the downtown shops, in fact, weren’t doing much business except the two gun stores. I’d been in one several days ago to pick a .22LR for an article I’d be writing for Shooting Illustrated, and decided to stop in at the other to see what the current political environment had left behind.
There were no less than six clerks working feverishly with the dozen or so customers, so I simply stepped to the side and walked the aisles. The cases of ammunition that typically lined the far wall were picked to pieces. There was a 100-round case of .50 BMG, and cases of European shotshells suitable for small game. The .223 Remington, 5.56 NATO, 7.62×39, 7.62 NATO, and 7.62x54R had sold out long ago, along with the bulk 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP.
A few pump shotguns remained along with a smattering of deer rifles, single-shots, and longer double-barreled shotguns suitable only for trap or skeet. Even the semi-automatic .22LR rifles like Ruger 10/22s were gone, along with all but one BX-25 magazine.
The customers in the shop were picking through what remained; lever-action rifles, oddball shotguns, and the smattering of name-brand centerfire pistols. One man was attempting to trade in an antique double-barrel shotgun for something more current.
I did speak to one harried clerk, briefly.
They didn’t know when they’d be getting anything back in stock, from magazines to rifles to pistols. Manufacturers were running full-bore, but couldn’t come close to keeping up with market demand. It wasn’t just the AR-15s, the AK-pattern rifles, the M1As, and the FALs that were sold out. It really hit me when I realized that the World War-era M1 Garands , M1 carbines, and Enfield .303s were gone, along with every last shell. Ubiquitous Mosin-Nagants—of which every gun store always seems to have 10-20—were gone. So was their ammo. Only a dust free space marked their passing. I’ve never seen anything like it.
Every weapon of military utility designed within the past 100+ years was gone. This isn’t a society stocking up on certain guns because they fear they may be banned. This is a society preparing for war.
I wonder if this is what it felt like during the time of the Powder Alarm, and fear politicians both sides of the aisle are no more speaking the same language as most Americans as Gage was unable to think like the Colonials. There is an earnestness now on both sides, and a great chance for unintended consequences.
Tread carefully.
Then it goes to Guns and Ammo:
http://www.gunsandammo.com/2013/01/30/industry-report-rise-in-gun-sales-prompting-industry-chaos/
Industry Report: Rise in Gun Sales Prompts Industry Chaos
by Dylan Polk | January 30, 2013
Before December 2012, the firearms industry was riding out one of its best sales seasons of all time. Indeed, gun companies raked in the money thrown at them by eager consumers, resulting in not just the highest number of background checks in a single day—the FBI reported 154,873 background check requests on Black Friday—but also the best year for gun sales in recorded history.
To say then the gun industry was doing pretty well would be an understatement, and from the looks of things, it would take a real catastrophe to really change things.
And as we’re all painfully aware, that’s exactly what happened. Right around the time sales began to peak, a horrible tragedy suddenly put guns in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons, and all of a sudden those sales numbers either seemed trite in comparison, or were used to reflect what some talking heads deemed a violent, paranoid sect of American culture.
A proposed ban and other legislative regulations on firearm ownership has therefore sent dealers and companies into a frenzy, especially those that almost exclusively deal with semi-auto rifles that are so commonly referred to as “assault weapons.” These rifles—as well as all the high capacity magazines that go with them—have skyrocketed in value due to the unprecedented demand. In fact, it’s not uncommon to walk into your local gun store and find the ammo shelf almost completely picked over, or find that companies and dealers backlogging more requests than they can meet.
“The tactical firearms marketplace is certainly no stranger to turmoil—look what happened during 1989, 1994, 2004, and 2008,” said S.P. Fjestad, author and publisher of Blue Book of Gun Values. “The difference between what’s going on now and what happened back then is how fast things have changed. Tactical firearms consumers used to take months to react to factors within the marketplace—now it can happen almost overnight!”
Indeed, the industry was almost immediately sent into a frenzy after the Sandy Hook shootings on Dec. 14. According to The Associated Press, the FBI reported the week following Dec. 14 saw the highest spike in background checks for a week-long period since 1998; the second-highest came not long after, when President Barack Obama announced his administration would be pushing gun control legislation during his second term. Those numbers continued to climb into the new year, CNN reports, with eight of the 10 highest days for gun sales recorded by the FBI.
“After the Newtown tragedy, it was clear that an assault weapons ban became a very serious focus of the White House and debates intensified on Capitol Hill, ” Rommel Dionisio, a Wedbush Securities analyst, told CNN. “That led to consumers flocking to stores to buy guns before they could be banned.”
That is, if they’re even able to get their hands on a gun. Public demand has outpaced companies’ ability to keep up, resulting in thousands of backlogged orders. Glock, for example, has a 10-month backlog, according to CBS Atlanta.
Demand for AR-15 variants is even higher. Earlier this month, Stag Arms reported two years of back orders on its rifles, prompting the company to not accept any new orders, according to The Boston Globe; the company has even gone so far as to recruit office workers to help packing and shipping in an attempt to beat any new restrictions that may be enacted in the near future. In the same article, Smith & Wesson noted $332.7 million in backlogged orders—nearly double its backlogged orders in 2011—and Springfield Armory also pledged to boost production through outside vendors and its own facilities.
Similarly, ammunition sales have skyrocketed to the point that both companies and vendors cannot keep up.
“We are hearing of spot shortages of some calibers of ammunition at retail,” said the National Shooting Sports Foundation in a statement. “Demand has been high for several years. America’s ammunition makers are working hard to safely produce and ship the quality and quantity of ammunition to meet that demand.”
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported area vendors staying up late to place orders with wholesalers while supplies last. What’s more alarming is how the shortage affects law enforcement agencies, which according to WTHR-TV have had trouble trying to maintain a steady supply of ammo. Some departments have even had to cancel training exercises.
“In years past, you could be looking at one, maybe two months. Now you’re looking at one, maybe two years,” Franklin (Ind.) Police Chief Tim O’Sullivan told WTHR-TV.
The frenzied demand has in turn affected firearms’ values. Blue Book of Gun Values released a series of charts putting the public firearms demand in a visual format. The chart on the left displays the prices for four different AR-15s, AK-47 imports, three different high-capacity semi-auto pistol variations and high-capacity magazines, as well as both .223 Rem./5.56 NATO and 9mm ammunition.
As you can see, the prices for all—besides S&W semi-auto pistols—saw an increase between Dec. 14 and Dec. 22. After a slight dip, prices for most models continued to increase, though Bushmaster ARs saw a decline.
Ultimately, the fluctuation in prices completely disregards the true value of any given firearm.
“When fear, greed and speculation are the dominating factors for the demand of a specific firearms configuration, values are almost impossible to accurately ascertain,” Fjestad said. “It’s like a gun’s value is almost forgotten about, and price becomes the only consideration.”
Long term, Fjestad said, this could spell disaster for gun companies, which could see the value of its products drop dramatically.
“This is the largest and hardest stampeding ‘buffalo herd’ (tactical firearms consumers) I’ve ever seen in my 30-plus years in the firearms industry,” Fjestad said. “Are they destined to run off the cliff and plunge to their deaths? We’re going to find out in the next six months.”
And lastly, it went onto Best Defense LLC:
http://www.bestdefensellc.com/frenzy/
Buying frenzy result: Unobtainium Ammo & AR's
Folks, we are in the midst of a perfect storm that’s making it hard to find those AR style semi rifles we’ve grown to like so much. In addition it’s darn near impossible to to find ammo to practice with. This graph comes from an article in Guns and Ammo on the very same topic.
I consider myself to be a gun nerd. Yep, completely immersed in the firearms culture and have been for many years now. While I’m not as bad as the savant-like mouth breather that would look at a 30 year old sniper rifle and quote chapter and verse on the various permutations of scope turret cap development, I do consider myself a somewhat reasonably knowledgeable individual (RKI) when it comes to trends in the industry.
That said, I’ve lived through several ups and downs in the market having seen fluctuations in supply and demand over the past 25 years or so. What we’ve seen in the last 3 months however I have NEVER seen. I briefly looked online right after the election results came in back in November thinking that perhaps I should order a few more rounds and/or parts but after checking inventory levels, I decided there was no rush and I went to sleep. That very next morning what I found when I looked again what I found was that everyone was out of stock. On everything. This lasted but a few weeks and started to show signs of any rush to calm down when the unthinkable occurred.
Some disturbed & deranged person goes on a murderous rampage in Sandy Hook CT and immediately afterward the executive branch started making serious noise about executive orders, gun control and further restrictions on firearms in the US. Of course now we live in a 24-hour real-time information cycle so we’re’ instantly getting reporting and the news networks are feasting on the sensationalized tragedy.
Well over a month later and I have clients coming to NRA Basic Pistol Classes with $35 a box (of 25rds) personal defense ammunition instead of FMJ because they can’t find anything else at the stores. Excuse me??? .223 rifle ammo? Forgetaboutit! I’m making recommendations to go all .22lr for training purposes and now we can’t even source a decent amount of .22lr in any quantity without 8-12 weeks of lead time and a 3X variable in price to the consumer.
Hang tight, conserve your round counts and train smart folks. I’ve always said that dry fire practice, (of course with unloaded guns), not too hard to assure that these days ), is a great way to continue fundamentals & tactics training. Now is the time to think hard about incorporating the use of radical alternatives like full-scale size & weight air-soft models, laser training guns like that the Next Level Training SIRT etc. into your training regimen. Best Defense LLC uses all of the above and is considering specific courses based on the use of these types of alternatives.
We’re in this for the long haul and you never know it is that you’ll actually NEED that ammo…