Will the Gun Market Collapse Soon?

[Four-Sixty]

I've been wondering, with all the coming head-winds, what kind of effect it will have on the gun market, and gun prices. What are your thoughts?

What I foresee happening is:

1) Romney will win the White House. Ryan is outspoken about his belief in gun rights. Gun Owners will feel safe, and turn their resources to buying things other than guns to prepare for a "gun grab". The black rifle market will dry up.

2) A serious dialogue will begin about our Nation's debt crisis. Credit will contract. Attitutudes about "I gotta have it now" will wane in favor of people saving to "earn what they buy". In short, frugalness will be more widespread diminishing the demand for finer, and otherwise more expensive arms.

3) Baby Boomers will dump collections on the market in droves. The supply of used arms will go up due to Baby Boomers needing to supplement their retirements, to pay for medical bills and keep the guns out of the hands of their kids who are stupid.

4) Manufacturers who expanded operations to meet red-hot demand will have excess capacity. They introduce new, more economical, models further crowding supply of the cheaper arms.

5) We'll live past December 21, 2012. No Zombies will come. The poles don't shift. It's yet another day. All these people who fantasize about shooting their zombified neighbors will come to accept it'll never happen. Now they have an AR-15 or a shotgun collecting dust. They just foundout their girlfriend (notice I did not say Wife) is pregnant, and now they need some cash...

What goes up, must come down. I recall listening on my car radio to how fast house prices were going up. I remember watching 20 year olds, with no job, buy homes in California for $450,000 with the hopes of remodeling them and reselling them for $600,000. I think there is a touch of that madness in this market everytime I see new numbers about how many guns were sold this year, this month etc.

What do you folks think?

[Love Life]

I don't see it happening anytime soon.

The firearms and related markets won't crash, but should halt once they reach the point where the market won't bear the price anymore.

[Char-Gar]

If a person pays fair market price for a gun, it will increase in value at least to deal with inflaction. Buying firearms for an investment is not a good idea, unless you are buying those few high grade investment grade antique or historic firearms. A good rule of thumb, is it is cost less than $25,000 it isn't investment grade.

[Four-Sixty]

I guess what I feel is; get out of debt & save your cash because the gun lover's buying opportunity of a life-time is coming right up!

[shdwlkr]

The firearm industry is already tanking.
Look at Remington and Marlin both used to make good firearms now they are in question of making even fair firearms.
Winchester is much smaller than it used to be, many firearms are made under winchester name in Japan.
The black gun industry will continue for as long as they are made and many can buy them.

As for the baby boomers selling their collections I don't see that being a big issue as when and if they come up for sale the owner will most likely be dead and no one left in the family wants the firearms.

What you want to wonder is what happens if there is no money, no fuel, no electricity, no food that you can afford to buy.

[JonB_in_Glencoe]

Um, after Clinton left office (but before 9/11) the gun market didn't crash.
this was also right after Y2K, and all those preppers didn't dump their guns
onto the market after "nothing happened" either.

The only thing I tend to worry about is when Obama or the like finally get to ban guns,
then having more than one or two becomes more of a liabilty then an asset...unless
that is the begining of the revolution ?
Jon

[gray wolf]

Some will sell, some will become complacent,
in the end it will balance out and be as usual.
But the threat to our 2nd. will live on, don't think Mr. MIT or Ryan will be the factor that decides what you keep.

[ErikO]

With the current path for my finances, March would be a great time for the bottom to drop out of the firearms market. ;)

[tomme boy]

I feel the next big thing is when all of the baby boomers start taking out their 401s an bonds, there is going to be a huge market crash. Then they are going to blame it on the Republicans because that is what they are going to be told who to blame.

[Wayne Smith]

It's already happening. Individual savings rates are up, consumer debt is leveling off. Any time there is a balloon it will collapse, how fast and completely it collapses is the issue, not if it will. All this is under Obama. Some people are waking up, will it be enough?

Yes, people are retiring, dying, and collections have already hit the auction market. You are really talking about when it hits your local gun store and pawn shop. However, how likely is it that we will be saying, "I need to save, not spend" at that point?

[bob208]

lets look at it this way. remember all the $15-20 mausers, enfields and sprigfields. where are they? i go to a gun show see one or two of each. not table after table of each. where did they all go? not wore out and throughed away in the junk. how about all the m1 carbines that were every where now you don't even see one. even the single shot .22 rifles and the singleshot shot guns as many as were made should be a barrel full in every gun shop for sale.

[largom]

I will not worry about it UNLESS Obama gets re-elected. Then all hell will break loose. It is probable that 3 to 5 new supreme court judges will be appointed during the next 4 years. If the democrats get to pick the judges we will be in deep trouble, not only with guns but all aspects of our lives.

Larry

[M-Tecs]

I really thought after Y2K I could find a nice generator cheap. That never happened. I also don’t believe it will happen with firearms
UNLESS Obama gets re-elected. Then all hell will break loose. It is probable that 3 to 5 new supreme court judges will be appointed during the next 4 years. If the democrats get to pick the judges we will be in deep trouble, not only with guns but all aspects of our lives.

[376Steyr]

Guns are pretty good assets. They don't take up much space, are easy to transport, and can be turned into cash quickly. In the Red states they make up a fair portion of the inheiritances that the government and the lawyers never find out about. I don't foresee a glut of slightly used guns on the market. I do predict that demand is going to slightly decrease, the big factories will get caught up with their orders, and the smaller firms that have been churning out 1911's and AR s will be winnowed out.

[oneokie]

I guess what I feel is; get out of debt & save your cash because the gun lover's buying opportunity of a life-time is coming right up!

Getting out of debt should be the # 1 priority.
Saving cash is a less than an even proposition because the value of the Dollar is in a free fall and will most likely continue even after Romney wins. Any spare cash should be invested in a diverse selection of goods.

[Four-Sixty]

Any spare cash should be invested in a diverse selection of goods.

I've had the same thought for awhile.

I also think that it could be better to have things to barter with instead of cash. Some bartering goods maybe,

1) Gas
2) Food and cooking gas, charcoal, etc.
3) Water and the means to store it
4) Ammo

[GREENCOUNTYPETE]

nope , we add 500 new CC license holders every week , that is just our state , that is got to drive the demand for carry pieces of at least 200-300 a week

one of the few guns that does wear out , is the piece carried every day

then there is the constant stream of needing the newer smaller lighter piece

[starmac]

Just curious, when was the last gun market crash.

[GREENCOUNTYPETE]

Just curious, when was the last gun market crash.

not sure it was a crash , but in 1947 there suddenly became millions of primer and pounds of powder , guns , parts and such available at surplus rates , that carried us thru the 1960s or beyond

but since they will not be selling the current service rifles when they return from the middle east , there will be no surplus rifles or pistols this time , we might see a little powder or some loaded ammo but i don't figure much

[looseprojectile]

There are several that I want though.

I can cast and load for virtually any firearm.

When I think about investing for the coming crash??? -- I am thinking about whisky and tobacco.

The problem with that is, how are you going to know what the quality of your stash is if you don't sample it?

Dammed if you do. dammed if you don't.

I have never seen firearms go down in value in the long term. [ 5 or 10 years].

In my lifetime I have seen a pack of cigarets go from 9 cents to over 9 bucks.
Whisky [or vodka] doubled or tripled in cost, not so much of an increase, but just wait.

I think I will take the wait and see route :popcorn:.





Life is good

[GOPHER SLAYER]

starmac, during WWII you couldn't buy guns or ammo. After the war there were so many guns on the market that it remained depressed well into the late '60s. This was the case with handguns and rifles. I remember well how hard it was to sell a model 1911 in the early '60s. Thirty five bucks was about tops. Shotguns were not effected so much. As for what might further depress the gun market, I think there might be several causes, one of which is shortage of places to shoot. I have friends who haven't fired a gun in months, some in years. If you read the thread that asked how far we drive to shoot it is supriseing to read how far shooters in less populated western states have to drive to shoot. I know that indoor ranges are opening in towns all across the country but who wants to par 18 to twenty five bucks an hour to shoot? You sure couldn't spend much time talking. One question I have. How many of those black guns can they sell? There must already be gazillions of them out there. [ yes gazillion is a word , I think]

[RugerFan]

All these people who fantasize about shooting their zombified neighbors will come to accept it'll never happen.

Oh now that's just crazy talk!

[bowfin]

Getting out of debt should be the # 1 priority.

I am thinking somewhat opposite. Why not buy stuff now and pay back the price of it in soon to be worthless (or next to worthless) dollars.

[man.electric]

5) We'll live past December 21, 2012. No Zombies will come. The poles don't shift. It's yet another day. All these people who fantasize about shooting their zombified neighbors will come to accept it'll never happen. N


I live in a neighborhood surrounded by democrat zombies that bitch when I am smelting loads of wheel weights on my land but expect me to smile and wave when their dog craps in my driveway. I fantasize about shooting them every time prissy little Fido squats outside, but unlike them, I have a binding moral agreement with the lord to uphold.


But it never hurts to be prepared.

[starmac]

Gopher slayer, I wasn't around during the war, but do know from my dad how ammo was rationed, or allotted among lots of other things.
I am old enough to remember every army surplus store in the 60's having barrels full of military guns, some as cheap as 9.95, but sporting arms were still being bought, I even bought a couple.

Guns were cheap back then, but then so was gas, groceries and wages.
I do feel like firearms sales will slow if and when our govt ever stabilizes, and I hear you on the black guns and places to shoot.
I feel for those that live where there is no place to shoot except at a range if there is one, but that is a life choice.

[GOPHER SLAYER]

I remember sitting in a sociology class in collage and the professor was talking about a man named Malthus who in the 19th century had written that man would over replicate himself away from a place at the table. That's the gentlemanly way to put it. The prof went on to say that Malthus could not forsee refridgiration or modern farming methods. My thoughts at the time were,don't call the man wrong just yet, give it time. All living creatures will expand to the limit of the food supply. Much of the worlds population is facing hunger and starvation today. Governments are making it more difficult to produce food with regulations and such stupid programs as biofuel. Combine this with a long drought such as the one we had in the 1930s and the stage is set for food riots. This is nothing new. It has all happened before. I may not have spelled the man's name right but it doesn't matter.

[Chicken Thief]

In short yes!
My pensoin is devaluating so i have fewer $ to spend on guns, than i used to have.

[williamwaco]

There will always be gloom and doomers and survivalists.

No matter who wins, the FED will continue to finance the congressional spending with printed money so the fear of inflation and government collapse will not diminish.

The demand for guns will not decrease.


.

[1Shirt]

Might happen right after the next vergin birth!
1Shirt!

[Idaho Sharpshooter]

If Mitt makes it, the demand will drop in half by June of 2013. As in the old days, a shop that offers quality repairs and moderate customization will do well.

I don't see many new firearms I would buy these days, but good single shot rifles will always have a market.

My local gunshop has a chair behind the counter that I have molded, over the last four years, to comfortably fit my big butt, and I can go in and BS for an hour or four anytime I want to make that big one mile drive.

Customer service has always been the key. Personal service, and showing value for your dollar is vital to survival.

We'll be okay.

There are only about four or five more NOE molds I really need, and when I visit my Mother back in StL every summer for her birthday, I swing by Hi-Tech Ammo and buy a few more kegs of powder and a sleeve or two of primers.

I do hope that Castro will die soon, going to Africa hunting every two years to buy a couple boxes of Cubans is killing me.

[starmac]

People are not only buying guns because they are afraid Obammy will pull off some kind of ban.

There are record numbers of folks buying guns, that could care less who is president, and previously didn't care to have one in the house either. The world will not magically get better if Romney wins, and things will probably get much worse before it starts turning around.

[km101]

Four-Sixty: I agree with most of what you seay, except the baby boomers dumping their collections. We have had baby boomers at retirement age for at least 5-7 years (depending on your definition of baby boomer) and it hasnt happened yet, that I can see. Most shooters I know intend to leave their guns to family.

But if there is a market crash, let it come! There are a few I would like to pick up! Browning Superposed, Colt Diamondback, 2 more Gold Cups, Hi-Standard target pistol, etc, etc,etc

[popper]

Like the computer and auto market, gun market will slow down. Powder and bullets will probably be recycled but battle rifle recycling will be interesting. Will the US leave them there to be used, destroyed, or as the AK,SK, saiga will they be sporterized and imported?

[youngda9]

If my wife finds about #4 she'll kill me :)

[shdwlkr]

The issue on firearms and how much they are going to be available or even worth depends on a few things
1 can the average citizen have them? how many? what calibers?
2 will they be available to purchase at any price?
3. will ammo be at a price you can afford? how about reloading stuff?
4 if you have some firearms will you dare to sell them?
5 how safe an area do you live in? Do you live in the country where they are tools and a means of getting food for you and yours?
6 when you die what happens to them?

[Uncle R.]

A big part of the increasing prices of firearms is simply inflation. They're not so much getting expensive but rather the value of your dollars is rapidly dwindling.
Of course the official line is that we have very little inflation. The official figures are lies. The politicians lie about inflation just like they do about everything.
<
As more and more people come to realize just how deceitful our government and our "leaders" are - and just how close to going over the cliff our society is - I expect that firearms suitable for personal protection in perilous times will remain in high demand.
<
Uncle R.

[Wis. Tom]

Govt. regulation will determine the extent of guns and ammo, either up or down, through fear or laws. Look what is happening in Cook county in ILL., the democrats are proposing a 25 cent tax on each bullet sold, and a $25 fee on each gun sold in the county, and the experts say they have the votes. I didn't read any details on reloading stuff. It is being sold as a way to stop crime in Chicago. Can you say "stupid". The criminals are already breaking the law, so this will stop them? No, it will only tax the honest people more, for more spending at the top. I am so glad I am in Wis., and not trying to make a living in a gun shop in Cook county.